tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-87064183277650869902024-03-05T04:08:10.364-05:00Investophoria - "that feeling of triumph when you tame the bear and the bull"Beat the Bear and the Bull - whether in a macro-downtrend or a ripping bull market get the fundamental, technical, and value-based analysis to help you in your investment choices.
I post trades, companies of interest, and economic commentary regularly. Portfolio is up 62% from Sept 08 - Aug 09! Join the fun!Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger120125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-5241905449042330812012-07-27T20:20:00.000-04:002012-07-29T23:57:03.680-04:00Touching Base.
If you still managed to hold onto the Netflix short, fantastic. We are now searching for a bottom as the stock has started its C-leg towards the support range that starts at around $42.00/share. If you close out the position from our $220 short entry, you've locked in about 73% gains to date. I would recommend doing this as the decline has fulfilled the minimum Unknownnoreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-52341407599370314622011-03-01T22:30:00.000-05:002011-03-01T22:30:58.504-05:00All that Glitters....
First off I am going to address one of the few open recommendations I put up in my last post.
This trade has so far panned out to plan. After a final surge and throwover the upper trendline to complete the entire pattern from $17.90 / share, the stock is entering a large corrective stage that should play out over several more weeks and possibly months.
Initial taget is the Unknownnoreply@blogger.com197tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-3921195280933534902011-02-04T16:10:00.000-05:002011-02-04T16:10:31.727-05:00Very Quick Update on Closing one Open PositionAt the end of August last year I published This chart:
And intiitated a long position on TBT (a short position on treasuries) due to the terminal pattern and nearly unprecedented optimism.
Since that time US Treasuries have significantly fallen in value, even as QE2 put a guaranteed bid on the billions of dollars per day traded in these bonds.
As of today, optimism is fairly negative towards Unknownnoreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-57445692331114657082010-12-06T13:17:00.000-05:002010-12-06T13:17:31.501-05:00Silver's "Double Tap" is a Strong Sell SignalSilver broke to record highs again today, screaming up to another 30-year peak and above the $30.00 / oz mark.
This is where I am going to take the opportunity to hedge against potential losses in the physical holdings I have accumulated for the past 8 years, as well as a great trade setup.
As of this moment, gold has not confirmed silver's high which is a telling sign of massive exhaustion in Unknownnoreply@blogger.com66tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-61704033251918426462010-11-09T17:08:00.003-05:002010-11-09T20:40:47.699-05:00Telling Bar Patterns and Record VolumeThis is going to be a quick post. Silver is in a blow-off top stage, as mentioned in my previous post, and in commodities these are generally spectacular, immensly participated in, and that the subsequent crash is usually at least as breath-taking as the run-up preceding it.
Gold, Silver, and the HUI all had daily reversal bars today - quite a feat considering all 3 popped to significantlyUnknownnoreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-28055452045596962152010-11-03T17:51:00.000-04:002010-11-03T17:51:55.177-04:00What people DO.....True believers in a massive deflationary wave are few and far between. In fact, among professional analysts and more "renowned" forecasters, you can count the number of real deflationists on one hand - maybe two if you stretch things.
The large majority of forecasters, and more importantly the investors who listen to them, are predicting inflation. Hyperinflation is a fairly common Unknownnoreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-80348989629670585782010-08-30T15:15:00.000-04:002010-08-30T15:15:37.460-04:00The Treasury "Bubble"A huge majority of investment "experts" and pundits watching the action unfold in the treasury markets have been treating the recent upswing in prices as its own little corner in the big picture. Investors and advisors alike regard treasuries as relatively insulated from the rest of the markets, or at best correlated in an inverse manner.
However, when I look at treasury bonds, all I see Unknownnoreply@blogger.com95tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-3055366924912840032010-08-11T20:04:00.000-04:002010-08-11T20:04:44.800-04:00Update for August 11, 2010 - The BreakdownIn my last forecast I wrote that the highest probability was that the Dow would push to new highs before rolling over. The ideal scenario called for a burst above the rising trend line followed by a quick reversal, which would kick-start a resumption of the larger-degree bear trend.
While the upper trend line was still over 80 points from being breached, the market behavior still met the Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-25111697461686486352010-08-06T22:47:00.001-04:002010-08-06T22:48:46.970-04:003 Charts and a Happy Friday!I just have 3 charts today, all of the Dow Jones Industrials. Just a snapshot of where we are in history. My position on other assets (gold, silver, USD, oil, etc) remains the same; We are either in the earlier stages of a major decline (silver, gold, oil), or starting major trend turning points, both bearish and bullish (Dow, S&P500, $USD, Euro).
Something to Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-30891327794876890302010-07-29T12:53:00.000-04:002010-07-29T12:53:13.108-04:00Did the Market's Corrective Pattern Top Out Today?I have been warning investors for many months now that this market is going to suck in the maximum amount of long participants before beginning its larger-scale decline.
Today's gap-up from the open was a very high probability exhaustion-gap which carried the Dow to a new intraday recovery high. From that point on, prices started falling immediately and the movements look extremely Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-25750466142324925662010-05-11T22:53:00.001-04:002010-05-11T22:54:50.781-04:00Opportunity: Made?In my last article I covered one of the companies directly involved in the oil spill, and suggested that more downside was coming. This, I also asserted, would be partially affected by a slide in the price of oil.
That was on April 29. Since then, we have seen a significant correction in stock markets the world over. Furthermore, since pointing out that (despite being the "Unknownnoreply@blogger.com223tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-46757588897938593312010-04-29T23:41:00.000-04:002010-04-29T23:41:30.275-04:00An Opportunity in the Making?Any hard asset investor can hardly call themselves such if they don't have at least one oil stock in their portfolio (this, despite the fact it's gooey, slippery, and definitely not hard). I recommended some oil companies in late 2008 and early 2009 which were extremely profitable.
However I am looking at another potential setup in the fairly near future (anywhere from a few weeks to Unknownnoreply@blogger.com91tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-81067980393503135312010-04-28T22:14:00.000-04:002010-04-28T22:14:33.980-04:00A Minor Top Is NighThe Greek "crisis" continues to unfold almost uniformly to our expectations, and its ramifications for the EU as a whole are certainly not painting a rosy picture for the coming decades.
The first order of business is to deal with the still-open STD short. I picked this bank back in December because it was a mirror of the overall psychology toward the finances of Greece itself, being a Unknownnoreply@blogger.com31tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-53338707427057226122010-04-19T16:54:00.000-04:002010-04-19T16:54:52.397-04:00How Do You Measure A Paradigm Shift?For the record, this is not a recession. This is not even a very harsh recession.
What we are currently smack, settled, and complacently in the middle of is a Depression. A rare, multi-generatonal economic "phenomena" that takes the vast majority of the population by surprise.
A depression is not the type of situation where supply has outpaced demand growth (due to minor levels of Unknownnoreply@blogger.com126tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-37212821452625044962010-04-16T13:33:00.001-04:002010-04-16T23:16:32.679-04:00The Start of Something [A LIttle] Bigger?Today should mark the start of a more significant decline in the broad stock markts that should erase 1/3 to 2/3 of the rally up from Feb 5, before making a final leg up to complete the larger degree bear market rally from March 2009.
As I have discussed many times before, the "hope" mentality of previous major market tops will be no less apparent in this move - It will usher in the next major Unknownnoreply@blogger.com24tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-5504288306059945992010-04-07T15:27:00.001-04:002010-04-13T21:15:55.829-04:00Market OverviewThe Dow appears to have completed an impulsive advance, and should enter into an ABC correction knocking at least a few hundred points off and resetting the momentum and strength indicators to make way for another upward push.
The USD still appears to be in the early stages of an ABC correction of its own that should take it below the 79.00 mark on the index. Gold and silver have Unknownnoreply@blogger.com48tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-78630474171031964302010-03-31T13:06:00.000-04:002010-03-31T13:06:59.919-04:00The Third (And Wildly Bullish) Scenario for Gold StocksIn the article I wrote on March 22 ("When it Breaks, It's Going Somewhere in a Hurry"), I stated that there were two downside possibilities for the price of gold, with the bearish move to at least $950 being the most likely, and the move down to $650 being second most likely.
I also mentioned that there was a third possibility, and that the price of gold could move very rapidly to new highs Unknownnoreply@blogger.com37tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-37966048247390600652010-03-26T11:50:00.000-04:002010-03-26T11:50:51.846-04:00The Long Term HUIOne of the tools I use in forecasting is the Elliott Wave theory - this, coupled with indicators in sentiment and momentum, along with measuring the disconnect between fundamentals and reality, allow me to get a clearer picture of where the market is today and where it is most probably headed tomorrow.
The two highest probability wave counts for the HUI Index both indicate at least a near term Unknownnoreply@blogger.com36tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-71408442501023586302010-03-25T14:31:00.001-04:002010-03-25T17:00:31.802-04:00Waning, Waning, Waning...Markets spiked upward today right off the open and continued to push higher, while a look at the underlying foundation shows cracks galore.
Gold has hardly rebounded off its move lower yesterday, trading a relatively tight range today, searching for its next move. The odds are still much higher that the next move in the metals is a downward one, coupled with another small surge in the USD Unknownnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-16254104977023605512010-03-22T13:29:00.000-04:002010-03-22T13:29:23.495-04:00Precious Metals are in a Key Technical RangeGold and silver are both in a fairly tight consolidated trading range over the past several weeks, keeping both metals bound within a compressed psychological battle between mid-term bulls and mid-term bears.
This range is extremely important, and is probably the largest hurdle that needs to be overcome before a sizeable move to either the upside or the downside. Our opinion is still that Unknownnoreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-53315728077738585582010-03-17T21:10:00.003-04:002010-03-18T11:55:33.640-04:00A Long Buy for Core HoldingsIn the spirit of the ever-increasing optimism towards China, I'm picking up a decent chunk of shares in a small cellular phone producer trading on the Amex. It's trading at extremely low multiples to earnings and sales, as well as its price to book ratio.
Here's the breakdown on the valuations:
P/E is 1.40
PEG is 0.35
Price to NAV Ratio is 0.29
Price to Sales is 0.17
Debt to Equity is Unknownnoreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-19125759897189424482010-03-16T11:12:00.000-04:002010-03-16T11:12:27.360-04:00Lazy Markets Lazy PsychologyThere is literally almost nothing new to report in the way of developments since our last article - The S&P500 is still sitting just a hair above its January high, currently invalidating the terminal pattern that developed to start the initial move down.
This does increase the case for another bullish run in the short-to-mid-term, however the markets have stalled after long time-frame of Unknownnoreply@blogger.com30tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-25829920201394499452010-03-12T11:54:00.003-05:002010-03-12T21:06:17.827-05:00The Muddy Waters of the MarketToday the S&P500 made a new all-time high for the move off March '09. The way this correction has played out is very similar to the one that occurred in July 2009, and we are seeing some similar upside potential now that could very well take the markets 15 - 20% higher than they are right now.
As such we have closed off our small term shorts with a break-even on the Dow trade, and Unknownnoreply@blogger.com23tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-32159041828600374092010-03-09T13:22:00.000-05:002010-03-09T13:22:43.938-05:00Update on STDMarkets seem to be breaking to the upside, as we thought would be their bias. There is still no real strength to this move and the VIX has failed to make a new low thus far with the upside momentum in stocks.
STD gapped down below the gap-fill line we posted with the chart over a month ago. The stock retraced to our target fill zone and may have turned. We are holding the Unknownnoreply@blogger.com26tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8706418327765086990.post-39033324578024086152010-03-08T09:35:00.002-05:002010-03-08T16:40:21.232-05:00Mystery Week 2010This point of of a market is always the hardest to conjecture about. It is the part that either proves or disproves a thesis - in the short-term, which can be a tough pill to swallow. However, nobody ever knows will full certainty what the future will bring - only which is more likely than the next.
Not to say we're throwing in the towel, or anything. But, as I have mentioned Unknownnoreply@blogger.com16