Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Update on STD

Markets seem to be breaking to the upside, as we thought would be their bias.  There is still no real strength to this move and the VIX has failed to make a new low thus far with the upside momentum in stocks.

STD gapped down below the gap-fill line we posted with the chart over a month ago.  The stock retraced to our target fill zone and may have turned.  We are holding the remainder of our position (50% left) with anticipated downside below the low clocked in during March '09.


  1. derek you're a clown

  2. Anonymous, Why bother to post an insult? If you have nothing to offer or don't care for Derek's opinions just click on.


  3. Its a great FACEBOOK page...

  4. Shorting opportunity developing?


    However, the govt may ban short sales on the companies they bailed out!

    I see the EU wants to ban speculation and short selling. They are just going to make the problem blow up worse in end. But I do not think this is bearish for gold in the end. They are determined to destroy any chance for the fiat system to survive.


  5. I wonder when Buffet will sell his preferred Goldman Sachs shares?

    I think we will only get a correction now, then the nations will manage to socialize defaults and keep this market moving up just as they did in 2004/5, and the next big crash to come in 2011 or 12, when all this blows up in their faces. I bet Buffet will sell out nearer to the next peak.

    Buffet had warned that inflation is coming, and the stock market is evidence of that. The nations are going to socialize the defaults and inflate. There is nothing else they can do.

    Go long on the next move down (move up to top of VIX channel). There is no crash coming in 2010.


  6. Shelby, is a rally in PMs coming or do we continue to sell off and if so how far down.

  7. In my opinion, based on the historical pattern of reflations, the down channel on the VIX, and the nations commitment to socialize defaults, we may get one or maybe two more times to buy just above or below $1000, but there will not be any significant sell down below $950.

    The govts have put massive liquidity in the system (probably mostly through the carry trade and the Yuan peg), it may not be in the Western markets, but we can see the Asian economies are booming. There is some talk and some action towards tightening, but any big or even small default that arises, the govts commit more socialism to levitate it.

    The S&P can not crash, because the P/E ratios have recovered from 150+ back to 20s. We have now hyperinflation, just as Buffet predicted. The stock market is going up in nominal prices, but it is going down or flat relative to gold. In this environment, I think we will see commodities have a blowoff top, before the next implosion from much higher prices. I think we are looking for an implosion more towards next year or so, after the elections, and as the mortgage resets in USA peak again. We are in a big lull in he mortgage resets in first half of 2010.

    I wanted to give credence to the possibility of Euro contagion and a dollar rise to 90+ with a big fall in gold, and I surely thought we would get more of a scare. But as this has played out and as I have researched the historical charts and see other factors such as the VIX downchannel, and I see Buffet's strategy playing out, I rather lean to the obvious conclusion that the reflation is upon us.

    Any counter-points any one?


  8. There is a possibility of a blowoff top to commence maybe even soon:


    I can see sideways choppiness or a renewed surge higher, but I don't see the contagion that could lead to a major sell off in 2010. I will await any good evidence/arguments otherwise.

  9. Stop listening to what someone (Buffet, Soros, et al) has said, or is said to have said. When will you learn to understand the cliche - 'When all is said and done there is always more said than done'.

    Also these people make their billions by playing their cards close to their chest.not by telling the world what they are going to do. Please don't ask for an explanation. You have intelligence, apply some.

    There is no such thing as 'NEWS'. At least not to the masses. Many already knew before media presents it. (There are some who even know before the media gets it)

    Now here is what we must do, or should I say, can do - WATCH THE MONEY!. The money will always indicate where the next moves will come, and are coming from.

    The vast majority watch the DOW on the New York market. That is the index which is flashed around the world's financial market 'news' to tell the US and the world the 'health' pf the US stock market, and supposedly, economy.

    WHY? Take a look at the daily turnover of the NY market and the NASDAQ. There is no comparison. Yesterday, for example, NY had a turnover around 200 million, and the NASDAQ was in BILLIONS! Both market rose, but the NASDAQ percentage rise was much greater, though neither was large. Millions against Billions. Take it in. Yet we are conditioned to watch the DOW as the barometer. Again - WHY?

    Then all the worlds stock markets put together pale at the side of the FOREX.

    IT'S ALL ABOUT MONEY, because money is power. So, WATCH THE MONEY!

    Of course, some of you won't see this, that's no problem. The world will still continue turning.

  10. Ray I find your writings to be entirely void of any actionable information. How about some actual opinion on price direction? The only thing I remember you writing in past is that you felt we should be patient as price of gold would trend lower for a while. So far, that has been incorrect overall, as we have not see a lower price than $1045.


  11. Ray let me add that insults about intelligence are really not helpful. Do you really think I am not intelligent? Do you really think I do not know that Buffet holds the important points of his playbook close to his chest?

    Are you intelligent enough to understand that the cometitive advantage aspects of Buffet's playbook, are not the macro-economic predictions (all of us have known since at least a few years ago there is an acceleration of the destruction of value of fiat), but rather he specific deals and investments in specific companies.


  12. Here is interesting commentary with actionable information, which is that the probability is for more downside in price, and this concurs with the VIX moving back to the top of its channel:


    However, I repeat that I am of the opinion that we will not see prices significantly below $1000.


  13. Remember a contrarian bets against the EMOTIONS of the masses.

    This article supports the comments I made yesteday, that we seem to be a period with strong correlation to 2005:


    "The latest news story on gold in USA Today is thus an extension of the widespread ***FEAR*** that lingers on after the credit crash of 2008."

    "So it seems that the average investor is either lethargic on the stock market if not outright bearish. Contrarian investors take note!"

    "The persistently strong hi-lo differential of recent weeks has translated into a rising internal market trend. Question: If this is 'THE' top, where is the distribution in all this? If this does indeed turn out to be a major top it will surely rank as the greatest example of a 'devastating drop' coming from absolutely nowhere."


  14. Ray, I have been writing that Deflation is really Inflation since way before this consolidation began (and there is no reference to Buffet in my logic and math):


    I am just saying that Buffet was also aware of it. He made his bets 2 or more years ago. In fact, he was writing insurance on higher stock market prices back in 2006/7.


  15. Shelby
    My comments in that post were not directed at anyone particular, so many do it. and I don't mean just here, as so few post anyway.

    I don't recall ever making a comment on the direction of gold or any particular market, or share. I may say as part of some other generalisation, that gold may trend this way, whatever.

    As it happens, gold has not made a new high since last December. and though moving sideways at present, there is a bias to the down (at this moment)

    I do remember saying not to short gold. That I would never advise in this scenario.

    There are too many imponderables at present to call any direction. It is easy to make guesses when you have no penalty to pay if you are wrong. Anyone who really could guarantee forecasting the direction would be quietly making himself a fortune, on the top of the one he would already have made.

    There is far more to the Buffet story than is splashed about in many stories of his stock picking 'genius'. He moves in circles to which few have access.

    He knows what the plan for our world is. And he knows most of the news before it happens. Incidentally he is a long way from being the richest man in the world, but he consorts with those who are. Of course most of you don't believe this. I know you don't. The masses don't. They don't even care. But then, the markets prove time and time again that the masses are always wrong.

    Want to always be wrong? Think and act like the masses.

    I believe I also said that this was a traders market because there was no real sense of direction, and there is no real 'thrust' of energy either way.
    OPPORTUNITY will come, just make sure you have the money to take it when it does.
    I use this time to take stock of the changes taking place politically and economically - not from headlines, but the little snippet indicators that often don't make front page.

    One huge change that gets little mention is that China just recently has been acknowledged as the world's largest gold producer. Think deeply about the implications. It is too much for me to go into here.

  16. Incidentally, so you are clear of my thinking, if there was a news item,or statistic stating how much gold China had, or how much it had bought, or was buying, or sold, I would not accept it as truth for making any market judgmemts.

    Because the fact that China is now acknowleged as the world's largest producer is a general statement, I am prepared to accept that.

    It matters not that this might be only by a couple of tons (I do not know the figure) the significance to me is the climb it has made, and the huge change from when South African Mines ruled the day.

    Gold is still the 'real money' for making macro economic deals. It is the only 'money' the Elite really accept (trust).

    I believe that far more gold is 'circulating' (being traded) in the world of virtual reality, than exists in the actual markets (that means available) to cover those trades if all wanted to take delivery.

    And it is this which could present the biggest problems, and is causing concern as they try to bring down this imbalance before any SHTF.

    Gold is not just a precious metal. It is not just a commodity.

  17. This blog has turned into a soap opera.
    bla bla bla.
    The gold stock indexes will outperform gold from here. Silver will also outperform gold.

  18. Feels like Walmart at the shoe aisle, plenty of flipflops in here. This entire blog is dominated by 2 schmucks that have nothing to do but write novels of drivel for each post. The funniest thing is...nobody is reading this crap!...lol, why dont you guys just chat on MSN!
    Real traders dont need to prove anything.

  19. One example of somone talking one thing and putting his money somwhere else is Soros's recent comments about gold as the ultimate bubble while increasing his position in GLD significantly. The Chinese with their comments that Gold is a decent assest but they are not really interested in adding to their position at current prices should be taken with a grain of salt. What Is abundantly clear to me at this point is that our government has HUGE unfunded liabilities and no concrete plan on how to fund them. Monitization of the debt IMO is ineveitable. I'm not smart enough to know if it will be in 6 months or 3 years but it is coming. From this scenario alone Gold is a great long term bet. I'll leave the short term swings to those who like to gamble.

  20. So, Annonymous who can't add his name
    you write -

    "...Feels like Walmart at the shoe aisle, plenty of flipflops in here. This entire blog is dominated by 2 schmucks that have nothing to do but write novels of drivel for each post. The funniest thing is...nobody is reading this crap!...lol, why dont you guys just chat on MSN!
    Real traders dont need to prove anything......"

    And what sort of successful 'real trader'are you trying to impress us with being who has to buy his shoes shopping at Walmart?

    With such comments displaying that attitude that is where you will be shopping till you drop.

  21. I concur with anonymous.

  22. Shelby and Ray need to take some quiet time away from the posts....Agreed


  23. The 'Annonymice' duo (or trio, or same person, whomever) Need to understand whose 'Blog' this is and that they come here like everyone else, by kind invitation to comment.

    It is not part of their raison d'etre that they act as moderators, unless appointed and I have missed the part where it informs that they are.

    If they want a blog where only they post their (self believed) opinionated 'enlightened wisdom' then start one.

    Every such site as this has its one or two who believe it is their own private club where only they 'shoot their crap' especially when they have had it that way so long.

    They need to learn that many more view these sites who do not post. So the website caters for a wide variety of levels, and investing interest.

    I assume Derick does not want a narrow view and that is why he named it 'Investophoria'. He is also fully capable of regulating his own blog.

    He posts to all and sundry on occasions from commentaries he presents at KITCO, and it was in response to one such commentary that brought me here.

    He can ask me to stop posting here any time he wishes, and I will oblige.

    But to 'Annonymice' I have a simple solution - just read your own posts and you will not be 'ruffled' by others points of view.

  24. Once this site changes to a "paid" and subscriber service most of the excessive posting by certain individuals will dramatically decrease. In the meantime this is free to anyone or any opinion. We get what we have paid for.


  25. Craig and Anonymous, I really don't care what you say, I will post when I want and where I want. Now go cry to Mommy. Grow up! Nobody forced you to read any thing.


  26. Grown men have been reduced to 2 year olds screaming on the floor of Toys-R-Us, because they think there is any rhyme or reason to trading a casino. If I make a call that goes against their trade, they have to belittle my contribution. One thing is sure, all who are trying to earn a profit trading this charade of a financial market are going to lose everything before this epoch is finished. You can take that to the bank with 99% odds.

    Just like the compulsive gambler, you can accumulate all the paper digit gains, but if you just can't quit and take the physical gain in real money before your luck runs out... and I mean not luck at trading wins, but the whole gambling house is going to burn down with you inside of it.