Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Opportunity: Made?

In my last article I covered one of the companies directly involved in the oil spill, and suggested that more downside was coming.  This, I also asserted, would be partially affected by a slide in the price of oil.

That was on April 29.  Since then, we have seen a significant correction in stock markets the world over.  Furthermore, since pointing out that (despite being the "darling" of the world in economic terms) Asian markets were getting ready to roll over once again, they have done just that.  Shanghai's market has now surpassed the 20% drop point from its market high, putting it into a technical bear market.  On April 28 I posted that another drop in the broad US markets was also coming - at the time, I didn't foresee a 1,000 point candle.  However I have written in the past that during this next major leg down parts of it will be so furious that it might be unwise to be a participant at all - what's the point of being short if you can't close out your position?  We saw erratic and erroneous behavior on several tickers last Thursday, including transaction prints running 25% in or out of the money as the entire side of a Level 2 was blown away.

A slew of emails in my inbox since Friday have continually asked the question "was the 1000 point drop in the markets a computer glitch?", or something along those lines.  In short, no - it was not.  In fact, the reaction to such a drop begs the question in regards to financial assets as a whole;  If a massive drop on last Thursday was immediately disredited as a "glitch" in computer trading, then why was a 14-month record gain posted yesterday accepted with smiles and gratitude?




Oil has suffered a quick haircut since I posted my turning point on April 29, down 12% - along with it, RIG continued its slide by another $10.00/share.  While the US Government may place a moratorium mid-term on offshore drilling to appease the beating these companies will take, offshore drilling is going to be one of the cornerstones of world energy for decades to come and RIG will be there to profit from it.  (For an Austrian Economics perspective, and one that I certainly share in regard to this incident, I encourage you to read this excellent article by Murray Rothbard)

I am not buying shares yet, but they are looking more appealing than they were 3 weeks ago (down 24%).  Our other recommendation, STD hit our Wave 3 target of the low $9.00's and has surged up to just under maximum retracement - any break of $12.36 indicates the mid-term downtrend is over and a bullish run is to be expected.  Our stop is set just above this point, with our closing target still set at below $4.87/share



GOLD AND SILVER

Gold has broken its all-time high today, negating the current bearish forecast I have been working with since late last year.  Despite this, at least a minor correction is to be expected with the current DSI levels reading 95% - pretty much every one who can get on one side of the trade is there, and this usually marks an ideal turning point in gold.

Despite that, one must not forget our investment philosophy at Investophoria.com - be safe with the money you cannot afford to lose, and take high-probability opportunities with smart money-management and well-defined stops with the money you can.

Precious metals are what we recommend for savings, not for "investment" - this point has been covered in detail for ages.  On many occassions readers have asked, both via email and through public posts, whether they should buy gold and silver - my first response is always:  Do you own any yet?

Whether gold goes to $1500 or $600, you should have some on hand;  It's real money.  The same goes for silver.  

So, with gold's break my forecast for much lower gold seems to have been negated (for a while), and the pathway is clear to up to $1325 gold.  That's not saying that we'll get there, and that bieng long right now is even close to a safe bet, but optimistic extremes can carry to head-scratching heights, and gold may well just be the last domono to fall.  A downward correction at this point would be healthy as sentiment is very elevated towards precious metals.  I will keep a close eye on price activity to see if better targets for upside and downside time and price can be established.



One thing to keep in mind, which still lends to silver's bearish case, is that the stab up to the top of the trendline has finally been put in - this completes an almost ideal ending pattern for an uptrend, and offers a high-probability that it will turn very soon.



Whether or not it is believable today, deflation is on its way, and will rear its head soon - even the skyrocketing bond-yields on government debt are deflationary in the short term - more capital will have to be diverted away from private sources and to government just to service debt, and defaults will take swaths of "wealth" from balance sheets the world over (upon which more debt has most likely been taken out for speculation, in many instances).

With gold's break to a record high, it just goes to show that (because of one of the most commonly cited reasons for gold ownership) everyone is betting on inflation, and lots of it.  And when everyone is betting on one side of the trade, it is not necessarily the safest place to be.

As always, if you have questions, concerns, ideas, or just a friendly (or unfriendly) hello to say, you can email me at:  Derek@Investophoria.com

Derek.

P.S. I apologize for my absenteeism over the past couple of months.  I have been very busy out and about for much of my days and as such will be posting evening articles over the next few weeks.

229 comments:

  1. "....what's the point of being short if you can't close out your position?.......

    This does not make sense. If you are short, and you have a 'buy back' price in and you are in a genuine bear market (if not you should not really be shorting) then you will make money.

    ".....I am not buying shares yet, but they are looking more appealing than they were 3 weeks ago (down 24%)....."

    In a bear market, as shares fall as they hit lower prices.they are always going to look more 'appealing' (to the non-streetwise). The same applies in a bull market they always look more risky as they rise.

    This is why you have to identify the market by common sense and trend, and stay with the trend but expect corrections.

    This separates the men from the boys. It has always been so, and will remain so - world without end, Amen.

    One day big movements against a trend are often caused by professional trying to pick up cheap, or dump at a better price.

    What really moves markets apart from so called 'glitches', I am referring to trends we should identify and follow, are caused by influences from world wide political and economic shifts, and the recognition that there are powerful controllers of money who actually know what they are doing, if we, and elected dumb politicians do not.

    But so many here think they can ignore that, and still play the market. So they will always wander in the dark.

    They are destined to learn the hard way. That would not be too bad if they did learn - BUT THEY NEVER DO, and NEVER WILL!

    The narket today is probably more predictable than ever. It is not that difficult to make money in it - certainly better than any bank.

    But you have to know what is really going on in the world, and understasnd what is meant by CHANGE|

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  2. I don't have anything to say about the short-term, gold could go up or it could consolidate, but I am sure we don't have deflation and we won't have (sustained) deflation until they back the fiats with gold. Until Derek understands this, he won't be able to get the long-term trend correct.

    You must understand that a shrinking private sector, supplanted by a growing public sector, is always inflationary. Decreasing private production yields less supply and thus higher prices. Decreases in private share of total pie of money/credit/debt outstanding, means higher prices for the private sector. Deflation means lower prices, and positive real interest rates (i.e. falling gold price). Inflation means higher prices and negative real interest rates (i.e. rising gold price). Those who can't understand this, will not be able to understand the trends.

    If you need more detail on this (read all the way to the bottom of the page for detailed understanding):

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/inflation-or-deflation-t9-360.htm#3007


    Derek, regarding your link:

    http://mises.org/daily/4328

    "Furthermore, those disasters were intentional; the oil spill was, quite obviously, an accident."

    That is false. The Valdez spill was intentional. Do some research on the captain and the circumstances of the incident. My father was the West Coast Division head attorney for Exxon during that time. Do some research.

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  3. Why was it intentional (to rally the environmentalists at the cheapest possible cost)? Well that is for you to speculate, but note that the USA is now dependent of foreigner oil, which will help insure the coming hyper-inflation. :wink:

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  4. Also the oil price drop may have been a margin call by the those bet against the outcome of the Greece bailout:

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19349.html

    "That mattered because a couple of major hedge funds are said to have borrowed heavily to load up on high-yield Greek debt over the weekend in anticipation of the EU deal. The attack on that debt on Tuesday was so successful that the unfortunate hedge funds received margin calls, which forced them to raise cash quickly. They had to sell both their new debt positions at big losses and to dump a wide variety of other holdings, such as oil, gold and stocks. This explains why oil crashed $4, seemingly out of the blue, at a time when supplies were actually constricted due to the Gulf of Mexico drilling rig disaster."

    -Shelby

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  5. Anybody that listens to this guy's advice must enjoy pain.

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  6. Derek,

    As for your downside call in February, I believe your call was correct. You were proved wrong only because the markets are so strongly manipulated by the big crooks on Wall Street.

    I'm still hanging in there with my shorts.

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  7. Cindy S.

    Enjoy the run up! See you in October to really short. Like you said manipulated by crooks. However, these crooks need to get more retail buyers in this sucker rallying market/

    ReplyDelete
  8. You can't make real (adjusted for inflation) money, by shorting anything, when inflation is running at 33+% per year.

    You fools! Gold and silver just jumped +18% and +33% off their February lows! And your shorts are losing money. By the time the market consolidates, you will be another year of inflation behind us.

    -Shelby

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  9. Even shorting things that will do poorly in inflation (e.g. bonds that have negative real interest rates) won't work out, because the inflation is precisely being sustained by the public's (market's) ignorance about those poor investments. And when the public's perception turns, then there won't be a solvent counter-party to pay your bet.

    -Shelby

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  10. Anonymous I agree with you 100%. I have been trying to tell Derek for months that his model is broken. He needs to stop trying to guess short term Gold moves and wake up and smell the coffee. Gold will continue to renlentlessly move up until we get currency that is backed by somthing other than empty promises. Derek your tepid admission that your model was wrong "for now," leads me to believe you still don't get it. You can't be in the advising business when your advice is costing people money.

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  11. There is a very old and well tested method governments have used for reducing their sovereign debt, and that is to inflate their currency and make those 'iou's ( pieces of paper)of theirs held by others, if not completely worthless - worth less.

    A powerful government, has powerful unelected people behind it who control international finance. ( of course, I accept many of you here cannot believe this)

    They can make the game hold out a long time, which amazes mass naievety, that includes academic so call 'economists' - Austrian style or whatever. And that is what has been going on.

    Of course, 'all good things eventually come to (brought to) an end' after it has served 'their' purpose and it is clean up time.

    Knowing this. You decide which way the market is likely to go, and back it all the way. It has a long, long, way to go yet. Though it will not be in a straight line.

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  12. Robert Prechter keeps telling us that we should be short. I have lost a lot of money and THATS IT for me. I just buy gold now.

    Is it not a kind of insanity to keep on doing something which does not work out...and again and again try and even try MORE? Prechter talks about gold going to 680. Does that guy ever admit he has been wrong? Awful..

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  13. ".....Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former......"
    Albert Einstein

    And boy, do you learn this on these sites - not just here.

    These analysts - all of them, do not have any inside information, at least not that is worth
    knowing. Assuming they did, they would not pass it to you. And there is more than one reason why. Do you really need anyone to tell you why?

    YOU! yes, you all can get all the same information that they use. It is mostly gleaned from very basic TA, past market action and what they read in the media and from what they hear ot read from other analysts.

    Talk about blind leading the blind.

    Most prognosis can be right EVENTUALLY like the stopped clock. Where they all fall down is the TIMING. It is getting that wrong which steals your money.

    German Intelligence as did everyone, knew we were going to open a second front and invade Europe, They even knew in which country we would land. They even know it would be somewhere in the North of France. AND THEY WERE RIGHT spot on!

    They just did not know WHEN and the exact point.

    And that cost them the war. Had they known, we would never have got off that beach, even if we had managed to land.

    That is the importance of getting the TIMING right.

    You see even if they had not known the exact point but knew WHAT DAY, they could have pulled troops, tanks, planes and supplies from other areas and covered that coast sufficiently to give us a bloody nose from which we could not recover.

    The best we mortals can do for timing is to wait until the trend develops. Forget trying to pick the pivotal point at which to jump in, but concentrate on being able to recognise that point once it has been established.

    There will be still time to make money (there is NOW!)

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  14. I agree with Ray ("R N") and the prices won't move in a straight line, but I can assure you we won't have deflation until the currencies are fixed to something that can not be created out-of-thin air.

    I expect the fiats to be fixed to a very strict gold standard at the end of this chaos, because strict gold standards don't work long-term, and so this will play into the plans of the elite. A strict gold standard will be extremely deflationary and will also be the only way to restore order after the chaos coming. It will destroy the nation-states and be implemented by world authority (e.g. IMF, world bank, BIS, or their successor).

    -Shelby

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  15. Note we may see more liquidity crisis, and it is possible the Fed may play chicken with the Congress again, and let the thing slide into what looks like deflation for a few months, but there won't be any sustained deflation for as long as the banksters haven't completed the hyper-inflationary step which is required for them to maximize their theft:

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/01.10/thinklikeabanker.html

    Then they will reset everything to strict gold standard, so that they can be paid interest in gold and mop up the remaining physical gold in world.

    After they have all the gold, they control every human being with a chip implant. You will not be able to buy, sell, or eat without their computer's permission. I am not sure if that comes in my lifetime, but I think so, perhaps about 20 - 30 years from now (because time is accelerating due to exponential function, e.g. Moore's Law the power of computers doubles every 18 months, i.e. the curve of computer power looks like a parabola).

    What can you do about this? Remember what was written in 1 Samuel 8. Never have a govt, or eventually you will be enslaved. So the only way to be free, is to want nothing on this earth (especially no govt and central organization). To be free, you have to live free and decentralized (disorganized). Try to spread it by your actions.

    The worst think you can do is once the gold suppression has ended, is to continue to hoard gold. Set it free. Don't be greedy. Get the capital into as many hands as you can, so that we can have more diversity and less centralization going forward.

    You don't realize how one person can make an exponential difference. If you influence 10 people, and they each influence 10 people, etc.. Then after 7 ripples outward, you influenced 10 million people. A truthful message/action will grow stronger as it ripples out and not be diluted.

    -Shelby

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  16. To think of anything like a return to the 'gold standard' is living on Fantasy Island. If it makes anyone happy to dream this, then please enjoy it until, at least, wake up time arrives.

    I can be as optimistic as anyone, and better than most, and I do like to dream and I read fantasy books, but I do not mix them with reality.

    China has screwed their little game to a great extent, by holding to a peg with the dollar 'without permission'.' (I won't explain)

    The Hong Kong dollar was pegged for years but with permission (arrangement) Hong Kong was a 'Crown' Colony. But forget 'Britain' or British Royalty. The 'Crown' has nothing to do with the Royal Family. They just provide the cover, and administration for the owners.

    And if you, (any of you) do not know who they are, then that is your greatest problem in any understanding of what is going on.

    I believe the British pound, the US dollar, and Euro, are headed for a near parity. That is the first next stage in process now.

    I will leave it there. If you knew the real truth, many of you here would have sleepless nights and bouts of bed wetting.

    It is not that it is that bad, it is just that is so contrary to all you believe.

    There will be some big changes, but a return to the gold standard is not, and will NEVER be, one of them. Unless they fool you by telling you it is, but do not tell you it is 'virtual real' gold - like the stuff the ETF (GLD)is holding, and a few bank vaults et al.

    They can do anything, they hold all the cards.

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  17. THEY do not have to return to the gold standard. GOLD will do that job by itself. Gold rises and will continue so because gold ALREADY IS the worlds real reserve currency. I have bought gold for 7 years now, EVERY week I have bought 1 or more coins. I have done so because I KNOW gold will go , like they say, "to the moon". Everyone who choose not to buy gold simply misses out. Personally I do not know anyone besides myself that buys gold. So it has a long way to go.

    Steven

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  18. I agree with Ray. The US Government will print money non stop to devalue the dollar and pay back its debts with worthless currency. I don't think they have a way out. Our Fed Chairman history and educational background point to this and his comments on the 1930's mistakes by the Fed also point to this action.

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  19. I was expecting gold to consolidate briefly at the break out to new high, so IMO here the change to load up before the parabola run coming. But no one can be sure of the short-term direction of the price. Long-term I am sure.

    Kiley, it doesn't matter if the Fed chooses to facilitate the creation of money dollars or not. Because if we stop funding the USA federal govt's deficits at treasury auctions (and soon state govt deficits too), then USA federal govt would default. This would cause a massive stampede from the dollar, which is the same as saying hyper-inflation in everything priced in dollars. It would have the same ripple effect on every fiat in the world, and thus it would be the endgame of hyper-inflation, with everyone stampeding to the safety of hard assets and away from bonds. Even 100% tax can't solve this:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/inflation-or-deflation-t9-330.htm#2747
    (read entire page and entire subsequent page also)

    Whereas, if the central banks continue to feed the govt deficits then we will also see increasing inflation, eventually resulting in hyper-inflation because there is no possible solution that stops deficits increasing parabolically. This is because the annual deficits and interest payments on the accumulated public debts are such a large % of GDP (production/private sector), that we now have what is called "negative marginal utility of debt". This means that the increases in debts (deficits), cause the private sector to shrink (GDP to decline), which thus increases the deficits even more. This then accelerates the negative marginal utility of debt (shrink in GDP due to increasing debt) even more. In other words, the acceleration of the implosion of the private sector. This can not be stopped, because it the result of decades of mis-allocation of capital by interest rates which were too low, because the elite were suppressing the gold & silver prices (by making silver coin not money in 1964 all over the world, by selling central bank gold, by selling short 100 times more paper gold & silver than they have, etc):

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/who-really-controls-the-govt-conspiracy-theories-thread-t48-45.htm#3023

    Also explained in my comments at end of this:

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19440.html

    In short, hyper-inflation is already guaranteed, it is only a question of when. By doing QE, the central banks are delaying it, but they are making it much worse, by increasing the size of the public sector (debt, i.e. mis-allocation) and depleting the capital of the private sector. The deflation that follows the hyper-inflation will go much lower. The entire world will nearly depleted of capital. You gold & silver owners will be so incredibly wealthy, that you will be targetted by the masses. It is in your interest to convince as many people as possible to start buying metals with 2 fists.

    -Shelby

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  20. Steven,

    You may buy a lot of gold, but your comments show little understanding of what gold backed currency means.

    It does not matter how high the gold price goes - yes, it will go much higher yet, it does not mean that the currency will be backed by it.

    There are two currencies in use, and always has been. Fiat is for the masses. But all MACRO deals in the upper echelons of international economics is in 'real money' GOLD.

    So gold has ALWAYS been money, but not for the masses since they abolished the gold standard. Today not even the Swiss currency is backed by gold.

    Oil is traded in gold. The Arabs sell their oil for gold based on around 20 barrels of oil for one ounce of gold. Therefore, if they actually received dollars then the exchange had to equate that value.

    This is why we have the dollar and oil price relationship.

    Sometimes it varies because of economic agreements to do so, but eventually any shortfall endured by the suppliers (cartel) will be adjusted (it's a sort of floating peg).

    This also helps to keep the masses and economists confused. If the relationship was never varied it would be too easy to forecast what was going on.

    Everything works in the favour of the Financial Elite of this world. Those who have the gold rules. This just does not sink in to most no matter how much they hear it. Some will even say it themselves, then forget it later when they are trying to puzzle it all out.

    What anyone should be concentrating on to make really decent money are the medium mines. Why?

    The whole mining market is SMALL, VERY SMALL by today's standards. I am talking about the mines that are actually producing but not big enough for the large institutions - there is pnly about a couple of those NEM and Barrick.

    You will make money on the large ones but not as great a percentage as with the medium, once they take off.

    These will really move when the smaller traders move into this market in a big way.

    You can make good money now, especially with options on some of those mines. Just make sure they have a good volume,and good 'open interest'
    and 'near' or 'in the money'.

    You have to be ready to take your profit quickly, and don't be greedy.

    But I agree, that is not for everyone.

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  21. Another way to wrap your mind around "negative marginal utility of debt" is to look around you and see that most people are in useless jobs. We don't really need what they produce. This is what mis-allocation of capital has done. It has created an economy where westerners produce nothing (except in the high tech sector), and China produces too much junk (at near 0 profit margins) that fills storage units across boomer land. Thus the truth is coming (either slowly by central banks fight it) or quickly (if central banks stop buying govt bonds). And that truth will result in everyone realizing the society and thus the govt is bankrupt, and thus running from the govt's bonds. That is hyper-inflation because then no one will trust the currencies of those govts. So really the only thing delaying the hyper-inflation, is the coming stampede to the truth.

    After that hyper-inflation, then you everyone is in hard assets or destitute (if they have none), and that is then deflation, because interest rates will be skyhigh and private sector will start to grow again, but from a very, very, very low level.

    People get confused. They think a shrinking private sector means deflation. Wrong! Shrinking private sector is inflation! Why? Because production is declining, meaning less supply meaning higher prices. Duh!

    -Shelby

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  22. For as long as the currencies are not convertible to a fixed quantity of gold and/or silver, they will continue to decline in value relative to these metals. They can go all the way to 0, because of what I wrote in the prior 2 posts. At some point (after they have squeezed all the blood they can, i.e. destitute everyone who doesn't have hard assets), it will be in the elite's interest to arrest the hyper-inflation and so that the private sector can start growing again. At that point, they will introduce regional or global currencies that are fixed to gold. The SDRs of the IMF already are. Ray is correct, the broad population will not convert these to physical gold (anyway, they will only have enough cash to get a speck of gold dust). What the population will want is credit. They will begging for loans and the right to pay back those loans with interest in a fixed quantity of gold (as the currency will be fixed to gold).

    This will cause all the gold to be aggregated by the elite. Because if the interest rates are greater than the annual increase in gold supply from mining (about 2%), then it means on aggregate the banks are sucking up all the physical gold.

    So the 2nd gold standard will be final one, that removes the gold we have now from the population. After that is complete, we move to the 666 described in Revelation in Bible. Humans will be completed controlled by the elite like cattle.

    -Shelby

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  23. Ray it is important that you understand the fixing the new fiats to gold will be in the interests of the elite. The masses will be bankrupt so there is no danger that they will be wanting to accumulate gold. The interest rates will be skyhigh. The private sector will have shrunk drastically. Thus the people will be eager to borrow money because there will be so many profit opportunities in the private sector (especially outside the western world), and thus no one will be interested in gold, they will prefer to earn high rates of interest at the banks. In this sense, it will be 1980s all over again, but with a global private sector.

    This will suck the remaining gold and silver out of the private sector, just as the period from 1980 to 2000 did, but this time it will be much more complete.

    So yes there will be a gold standard, but it will be international and the common people will not be accumulating gold.

    -Shelby

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  24. Gold is the next big suckers bubble. So just keep throwing your money in the hole,SUCKERS!

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  25. Someone emailed me this:

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17826

    Yeah gold is a bubble, hahahaha.

    As in $5 trillion of gold in world (most of that available for sale and held forever) and $1000 trillion derivative promises in world.

    Gold could go up by a factor of 10 and it would still be cheap in terms of where it will be by the end of this mess.

    These people talking about $6000 gold, are not factoring in that the elite plan total scorched earth policy, in order to achieve the scale of the new world order.

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  26. I mean most not available for sale.

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  27. "....So yes there will be a gold standard, but it will be international and the common people will not be accumulating gold......."

    Why there is such an obsession with bringing in a 'gold standard' as a cure is beyond me.

    There is far more gold being traded now than is available for delivery should ever it be demanded (for delivery).

    Do you, that means anyone, actually believe that
    the ETF (GLD) is holding all the gold it is supposed to hold. (actually it is a bank that is supposed to be holding it for them. There is no separate building for GLD that holds their gold.

    Those who control the gold market control the bank and in fact, all the International Financial markets, and all the governments and to some extent even those named 'rogue governments'.

    Why should they tie their hands with anything never mind a rigid monetary discipline.

    However, they could easily fool us by telling us they were going on a 'gold standard' as, today, they do not need to have the real stuff.

    Who is going to ask to check (test) it and count it? Also all the money that has been issued against it. It is a task that could never be performed.

    PLEASE WISE UP!

    None of you have the mind capacity, or at least exercised sufficiently to think big enough to comprehend Benjamin Disraeli's remarks when he told you (shared with you) the key to it all -

    " THIS WORLD(note WORLD, not the UK or America or any single nation) is governed by far different personages than can be imagined by those not behind the scenes "

    If you want to know the full context about those of whom he was referring then read his book 'Coningsby' published about 1842.

    The only thing that has changed is that those 'personages' are now even more powerful.

    If you cannot take in that simple truth, you will never make sense of politics, and economics, in fact everything that affects not only the markets but YOUR life while you are on this Earth. (Not too certain if there is another life after)

    Enjoy! If you want to go to a place where people never have problems, take a visit to the local cemetary.

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  28. @ Ray,

    I have looked for the book locally (Wisconsin) with no luck. I found this book on Amazon. Is this the correct book? I'm eager to get my hands on this. I love reading authors from the 18th century...Coningsby or, the New Generation (Paperback) by Benjamin Disraeli

    Please let me know...

    Thanks,

    Kiley Kuhl

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  29. Kiley Kuhl. That is the correct one.

    At that time, this man headed the most powerful nation in the world. He headed the world' largest ever Empire.

    I mention this just to inform that he well knew what he was talking about and the difference between what is believed bv those on the 'outside', and wgat is 'known' by those on the 'in'.

    Good reading. It will open your eyes if you read and understand what he is really trying to tell us.

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  30. Ray,

    Please re-read the math I presented, to understand why a rigid gold standard will not tie the hands of the elite and in fact will serve to funnel all the remaining physical gold to them.

    It will be a mopping up period.

    You keep writing in a condescending tone, yet seems you can't read or can't understand a simple exponential mathematical concept. If the mining rate for gold as compared to the above ground supply is say 2%, and if the interest rates go to double-digits, then if the money being paid as interest is rigidly fixed to gold, then those who are loaning money, will be gaining more gold as a % of above ground supply every year.

    Also you seem to not grok that the lowest entropy systems are the most unstable and weakest (i.e. the world order that elite are striving for will only last 7 years). I would rather educate someone in the 210 IQ range on the subject:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/technology-f8/theory-of-everthing-t124.htm#3040


    -Shelby

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  31. Shelby,

    You and I will NEVER agree, so let us leave it at that and not bore others with our clashes on points of view.

    I am not saying YOU are wrong, just that you are wrong in MY point of view.

    The fact that I do not agree with you (or anyone) does not mean that I do not hear what you say. It means that within the context of the theme of the discussion, WE (me, myself, and I) do not agree.

    My views are based on what IS, not on what would, should, or could, be 'if' (that word you use a lot) this world was governed by the tenets of any of the basic accepted religions, or economic dictates of Academia.

    Mathematics, and the laws of Physics, whatever, are not in dispute. But, you cannot apply them meaningfully in areas where there is a human element which has the controlling power (ability) to 'cheat' (manipulate)that which functions purely by, and on behalf of, human behaviour. End of story

    The paradox of life is that you need IMAGINATION to see REALITY.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Why are there people in this world so ready to cheat and lie to others with their manipulative tricks.?

    Answer: Because there are so many fools who will fall for the same old lines time and again.

    You see, there are only fishermen because there are fish to catch.

    The fish are not there because there are men who want to fish.

    Think on these things.

    ('Newtonian' Wisdom)

    ReplyDelete
  33. Ray, what I wrote is consistent with giving the morons what they want- more debt.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Ray remember I told you that China's profit margins are near 0:

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19498.html
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aCxxXIVSAh9o

    "China’s trade surplus shrank 87 percent...

    ...import and export department of apparel maker Shanghai Dragon Corp., said in an interview at China’s biggest trade fair in Guangzhou on May 3. “If the yuan rises 3 percent, where’s our profit? Many, many factories will close.”"

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  35. Shelby.
    Trials and tribulations in a nation's economy are a part of life. It is how they are handled that is important.

    In any further serious downturn internationally all nations will be affected as the world is so intergrated today more than ever.

    China is no exception. They know that.

    But it is how you deal with adversity which shows the metal.

    Marcus Aurelious almost 2000 years ago said "It is not what happens to us, but how we deal with what happens, that matters" (rough English translation)

    You will see that China will handle her economic problems as well as she handles her natural disasters with speed and efficiency.

    However, there are always 'outside forces' with your mental attitude in wishing that nation to conform to your predictions.

    They will sieze every opportunity to take advantage of any negative events to bring about internal social unrest as is happening in Thailand, and Greece.

    Chaos to them is gain serving many purposes.

    China is aware that this is the more serious threat than any genuine economic one. It has been tried once at Tiananmen Square. I was in China at the time.

    There are those in very high, and dark, places who share some of your views, and a crushed China chopped into
    around four independent regions with heavy debt would be a great prize indeed.

    How many ordinary decent people are slaughtered in the achievment is of no importance. You would not mind either, just to prove yourself right and this is why I have no respect for you.

    There has been too much of this - inciting social unrest for personal gain in our life.

    ReplyDelete
  36. "...Ray remember I told you that China's profit margins are near 0:....."

    Amazing! Just where is their growing reserves comeing from?

    China has a plan for its currency, and it moves in line with that plan.

    There is tremendous financial acumen guiding China's finances,and economy.

    It is prepared for attacks.

    It is rarely mentioned by Western Media, so is little known, outside Asia, that it was China which saved the rest of Asia when their currencies were attacked by Soros et al a few years ago.

    Why is it important to know and understand this? Because it will dictate much of the action in the markets.

    THERE IS BIG CHANGE and we must recognise WHAT IS CHANGING, and WHY.

    For centuries the TPTB via the UK, and then the USA dominated the world, yes DOMINATED! We almost had carte blanche to call the shots.

    Gun boat diplomacy is fast coming to an end. Our problems can no longer be solved by wars. Major wars have got to where those who really start them can get hurt physically. So, be assured, there will be none.

    All this affects how the game will be played. And that includes how the markets will behave.

    And that is what is changing.

    ReplyDelete
  37. The more I read about the debt everywhere the happier I am that I recently sold my house and is debt free. FREE from the slavery. And own quite a bit of gold. AND that I live in a country which actually runs enormous SURPLUSES and has a huge petroleum fund, quite a difference from Greece and the other PIIGS.
    Shelby, do you have any ideas about how the Norwegian krone will do in the currency environment next few years? There is so much to read about the dollar, and euro, the yen, etc. My money is in norwegian kroner (and gold/ silver)..YES I WILL buy more gold.

    Chris, Norway.

    ReplyDelete
  38. "....The more I read about the debt everywhere the happier I am that I recently sold my house and is debt free....."

    But where do you now live?

    If you are living rent free, fine. Or you bought a smaller house for cash with your money received from your other house sale, assuming it was more expensive one. fine.

    But if you are renting you are still technically 'in debt' as it is a cost you must retain as you must pay somone for the rental.

    In the UK rental properties are rising, even house prices in many areas are now rising.

    The Norwegian currency is very strong and will likely remain so for some time. Though cost of living in Norway is very high. I believe some people near the border cross into Sweden to shop.

    So, if you have the income to offset the high cost of living, and you don't mind the weather, Norway is not a bad place to be.

    So, play it 'cool' (the weather will help you there), and take each day as it comes watching much of the rest of the world squirm in their economic quagmires.

    For me, I am happy in London. London, it is said, is a nation within a nation.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Hello R N,

    New to this site....

    What to do with my pension money in these volatile markets?

    Matt

    ReplyDelete
  40. Hello, I rent, but a closet basically. I am in a "war mentality" and is willing to live like I am broke/poor for a while. Save 60% of my income every month. Yes, it is very expensive here, but more so for the tourists than for me. I dont eat out, buy at the cheapest grozeries and get by with very little. Sold my car. I am NOT going to be the victim here. Buy some gold and silver regularly. Nobody I know thinks/acts like me these days, (they seem to want to get more into debt so they can BUY a closet of 30 square meters for $300 0000)hopefully it will pay off in the long run. (The weather in Oslo is quite good actually, many sunny days, but cold in the winter. This year we could ski for 160 days in a row INSIDE the city of Oslo, hehe.)
    Chris

    ReplyDelete
  41. "..What to do with my pension money in these volatile markets? ..."

    On pension means you are in the later years of life.

    Much depends on the rest of your finances - house paid for, some money saved, no large debts or expenses etc'

    By retirement we should have done all the 'investing' in our life, as to me the word 'investment' denotes 'long term'.

    Of course, if you retired very young you could still have many years ahead

    There is so much 'change' in progress and 'volatile trading' in the markets it is very difficult to 'enter' the markets in a way that avoids watching your money, and events, like a hawk.

    In retirement, you cannot afford to make mistakes.

    In what country are you? How is your own currency?

    What do you want from the rest of your life? This should be your most important consideration. Your health, and happiness, depends a lot on your state of mind.

    Listening to too much news can make you very negative, and that is the danger of age. It is like going on a journey in your car with your foot constantly touching the break.

    Keep both body and mind active, that is essential. You know - 'if you don't want to lose it, use it'
    Do you have some gold tucked away?
    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  42. For you Chris, you sound reasonably contented with life. Norway has few problems now or in the foreseeable future. Your currency should just jog along with few if any 'bumps'.

    So, like me - ENJOY!



    then keep doing what you are doing and, like me......

    ENJOY!

    ReplyDelete
  43. There is a powerful relationship between gold, oil, and the US dollar.

    There is more than one reason for this, but the main one is that GOLD is, and always has been, the 'REAL' currency, because it is 'REAL MONEY' which is the preserve of Macro economics.

    Yes, you keep hearing this, but has it sunk in? Really? No you never hear it from the government, or any 'official (allied to government); source. Why? Because they do not, and never will, want you to know the importance of gold within the capitalistic system.

    It appears that Oil is sold in dollars, but it isn't. It is quoted in dollars for obvious reasons. But the Arab cartel sells if for gold based on so many barrels being equal to one ounce of gold. (around 20 I think it is currently)

    Therefore the dollar/ gold price has to average out within a reasonable time period that which permits the cartel to receive their fixed ratio of oil for gold, eventually, over any period of economic turbulence, or potential turbulence.

    In these periods, arrangements are made with the Cartel to accept drifts from the accepted ratio, They have to work hand in glove with each other so ignore silly rhetoric.

    All this necessitates the manipulation of either the gold price, oil price, or dollar depending on where the problem, or potential problem may rear its head.

    It is all this which causes confusion. By some analysts, and media it is intentional, not just to mystify the public, but also traders who, if they knew where price was heading would jump in to make a killing, and in doing so exaggerate the problem. (as in upset their plans)

    Nothing, and I mean NOTHING is ever what it seems. This is the way capitalism has to work. And if you have the imagination, and clear thinking mind, you will see it.

    While the vast majority of us are precluded from making a 'killing', we can make money if we pay close attention and face the reality. Dump those sill notions you have lived with (been brain washed with) for so long.

    There are only TWO real conspiracies you need to know about. (1) For the Elite few to control the Mass (somebody has to, the mass is incapable of controlling itself, and in a Capitalist system there are going to be rich and poor, and to a certain extent, a lot of social inequality.
    (2) The conspiracy to debunk all conspiracies as though they are unthinkable, and do not exist except in the mind of 'nut cases'

    Have a nice day. (And I mean that)

    ReplyDelete
  44. IS IT POSSIBLE THE EU KICKS THE PIIGS OUT OF THE UNION BECAUSE OF THEIR DEBT PROBLEMS AND THEN THE EURO STABILISES

    ReplyDelete
  45. No nation will be 'kicked out'. All what is happening was foreseen BEFORE any nation was allowed in.

    All the 'shocks' we are getting are only ahocks to us because we do not see, and understand, what the agenda is.

    The European nations are not making the decisions. The Union was not formed
    because it was the decision of any of those nations. I mean from their hearts and minds, and certainly not from the people.

    Like most of you they would not believe it would work. And it would not work, if those who are the creators, were not behind it making the decisions.

    The United States would not have held together, if it had been the people, or elected politicians who were making the decisions.

    This is where you all go wrong - YOU JUST DON'T GET IT - YET!. One day you will have to be deaf dumb and blind not to.

    The US dollar, the GBP (British pound), and the Euro are headed for parity which was ALWAYS the intention.

    Nothing happens in a straight line.

    It will get there. Rest assured.

    Could impart more, but it would be wasted, and you know it. So I will oblige.

    Step back, and open your eyes all of you. See the BIG picture.

    ONE WORLD ONE 'REALITY' (It has got beyond a dream)

    There is so much 'wealth power' behind it making it happen. This wealth is so great it is uncountable, if only because they can create all they need. But they have so much, they do not need.

    Once again - dollar and Euro will settle at parity, but for a time the dollar may overshoot.

    It's not about Academic economics, it would stand up if they ruled.

    It is about those who control the gold make ALL the rules of any significance.

    Repeat that over, and over, and over.

    It has been that way for centuries, and centuries, long, long, before Columbus first set foot in the Americas.

    No, I know they did not teach you that at school. There is a lot more they didn't teach you.

    ReplyDelete
  46. You know we can moan about this or that, and talk about manipulation, or about TPTB, or whatever or whomever, but within a few hours so far TODAY, you could have DOUBLED your money on a put option on GDX (the ETF for GLD)

    Yes, you could have bought the May 51 put for just over .40c and doubled your money. It is now about .90c.

    I made a couple of thousand the other day, was going to do it today but just held back and got busy with something else.

    I mention this only to highlight that no matter what, there is money to be made, and in the Gold market.

    10 contracts control 1000 shares, so every .01 move in your favour is $10.

    If you do not understand options, there is plenty of opportunity on line to learn. In the market we are in they can pay. But you need a 'cool hand Luke' demeanour, an understanding of how they work, and the behaviour of the stock you are buying options in.

    Dry trade for a while to begin with as you learn. Myself, I go for a quick profit, then out. I put my sell order in as soon as I have bought.

    If it goes against me,i cut my loss and get out -FAST!

    ReplyDelete
  47. Here is your chance to get on board the gold train if you are not already in. This dip back to $1205 from the breakout to new highs, is I think a very nice gift. So what if we are wrong and it dips below $1000 again (not very likely), because there is no way gold is going to stay down very long. The deflationalists are wrong, wrong, wrong. Private credit dying means death spiral for the fiat system, which is bullish for gold, despite the declines in economic activity. I have explained why already in great detail.

    I wish you all health, happiness, peace-of-mind, and the clarity of simple correct decision making that does not require constant analysis, discussion and trading.

    It is quite simple. Earn income, save it in gold & silver. Reduce expenses. Prosper and be happy!

    Don't even bother to think about the "elite" and what the rest of the world is doing. We only have to focus on what we are doing, especially when we make it as simple as I have suggested above.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  48. Shelby wrote:
    "...Ray remember I told you that China's profit margins are near 0:....."

    Ray replied:
    "Amazing! Just where is their growing reserves comeing from?"

    Are you sure you studied economics at the finest institution in London? Seems you don't know the difference between profit and a trade surplus. A trade surplus can result from exporting more than a country imports. It has nothing to do with the amount of profit being made on those exports. It entirely possible to be losing money (no profits) and export more than one imports.

    It is claimed that China's surplus has been 11% of GDP (although it declined drastically recently due to huge stimulost which drove Chinese imports way up). But this doesn't mean China's exports generate 11% profit margins. It just means China is exporting 11% more than they are importing.

    To say that China is adding 11% value, might be more accurate, but again that wouldn't be profits. They may be mining and producing raw materials that go into exports that contribute to the 11% value added, but that doesn't mean those operations are generating 11% profit margins.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  49. Shelby wrote:
    "You can't make real (adjusted for inflation) money, by shorting anything, when inflation is running at 33+% per year."

    Ray wrote:
    "but within a few hours so far TODAY, you could have DOUBLED your money on a put option on GDX...

    I made a couple of thousand the other day...

    ...If it goes against me,i cut my loss and get out -FAST!"

    Don't fall for this nonsense. The speculator always falls behind over time. People brag about their wins, and hide their losses (even within their own mind).

    ReplyDelete
  50. Wealth comes from the bottom line as in PROFITS. I addressed PROFITS because as you noted by its inclusion that was the quote of yours to which I was responding.

    China has accumulated great wealth.

    Once again - WEALTH COMES FROM PROFITS
    as in the BOTTOM LINE not trade surpluses, or gross profits whatever.

    The evidence is EVERYWHERE you look, both in China, and her behaviour in other nations from where she draws her raw materials.

    I therefore do not have to rely on quoted 'statistics' for we know what has been said about them.. All is transparent to an UNBIASED observer.

    And do not resort to derision based on your personal assumptions. (referring to your comments re my trading. I LIVE VERY WELL. And I pointed out that before doing anything in the markets - treat it as a business, and LEARN your business.)

    I have learned the hard way over many years. I have also read others who have been happy to share their bad with the good.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Ray,

    Wealth and material production are not the same, and in fact can be quite opposite and fool the eye. For example, Egypt built great pyramids using slaves, it didn't mean that Egypt was building great wealth. It was actually squandering it's wealth.

    It is a fact that China is enslaving its people by pegging the Yuan exchange rate, lower than the free market would. So don't be surprised to discover that China squandering the wealth that should have gone to the workers, and overproduced (squandered wealth) in sectors that are redundant.

    You see Ray, you just can't seem to understand entropy. NEVER is a centralized decision maker as efficient in allocating wealth and capital, as is a free market of multitudes of people making their own decisions with their wealth.

    China's central bank stole the wealth from the workers by pegging the Yuan.

    Theft never works out in the end Ray. You will learn that the hard way apparently.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  52. Shelby,

    If you must use analogies then try to make them applicable, also the whole response relevant to my comments.

    .'..Egyptian pyramids (tombs to dead kings) and China's modern infrastructure expenditure, plus many other areas that will benefit all China and its citizens....' You are beyond a joke.

    If what you accuse me of not knowing is ignorance, and what you propound is knowledge, then give me ignorance.

    I won't nit pick your post item for item, your nits are too big.

    Such as -
    Chinese banks robbing their people?

    We are going through a world economic crisis because of US banks literally robbing the people. Western banks were lead by their leader - the US Federal Reserve. I guess none of this counts because they are not Chinese. Incidentally,
    have you forgotten the Savings and Loan fiasco (robbery) of a few years ago? Yes? How convenient. It was the biggest bank robbery ever, but everyone, especially the media just forget it. (So they did it again)

    Again - You are beyond a joke, unless it's a sick joke.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Yes Ray, the central banks of the world are robbing the people in every country. So what is your point?

    The average Chinese worker would much rather have his fair value on the free market exchange rate (and thus more personal income), than to have it expropriated and spend on high mountain trains to (and govt expenditures to suppress human rights in) far flung Tibet. That is but one example of waste of wealth by the centralized decision makers in China.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  54. Here is a little insight into the way Ray Newton thinks:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/non-payment-of-debt-worldwide-t147-15.htm#3061

    He apparently thinks freedom is a world where all the people are lobotomized. I guess he doesn't realize that will him and all of you too.

    I really don't see the point of debating an idiot. If Ray manages to make some "great" rebuttals in future, rest assured they are not "great", but I just don't have the time to keep debating an idiot.

    Also I am trying to move the debate to my forum, so we don't continue to monopolize Derek's blog.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  55. I refuse to respond to such rubbish and lack of understanding of difference between possibility, and probability.

    Also, while there is much wisdom extolled in the bible, that wisdom is also contained in many ancient philosophies, and other religion's tenets.

    But when someone takes every word, in spite of the distortions caused by time and translation, as a literary truth, then there is little point in discourse.

    I believe Shelby is a good guy at heart. He sincerely means well. He is just misguided by his beliefs.

    BACK TO THE REAL STUFF - the MARKETS.

    Currencies: I repeat what I have said before, the US dollar, the Euro, and the GBP, are headed for around parity.
    But it will be in controlled stages. This was the original intention so it is not a new development.

    The dollar could well shoot past the euro before coming back to near parity.

    One day, in the not too distant future, the Chinese Yuan will be a 'reserve' currency. This is China's aim, and it will achieve it when the time is right. Timing is everything.

    BREAKING NEWS:
    Stock markets:: Germany has just banned naked short selling. This should be banned everywhere there is absolutely no excuse for it. In fact it should be made criminal.

    There has been moves in the US, but it is still widely practised. Maybe things will now change in this move to clean up the act in many areas.

    It will set panic among all those who are up to the eyebrows in this practice
    in the US for them to 'get out' of those positions, and any other nefarious activities in which they engage. So watch for some gyrations in the markets.

    If they are 'naked' it means they have sold that which they do not have, and not even borrowed. The only way out is to buy them back.

    The market coming down will give them an opportunity. But if it starts to be pushed back up by these shorts buying back.........well you figure it out.

    If you are naked short, you need to be out and clear before any serious legislation is brought in.

    Only very powerful players are able to engage in naked shorting. So we are talking volumes, not 'penny ante'.

    Stay positive, great things are happening in our world. Many international retailers are expanding. Construction in infrastructure is a positive sign. What is negative is when you neglect it.

    ReplyDelete
  56. The usuals are out spewing $800 gold nonsense again. I am purchasing more gold, and will purchase more silver if it drops back into $17s. I am hoping for lower prices, so I can buy even more. I mean keep some powder dry and scale in not all at once. Don't try to time the exact bottom, as most likely you will talk yourself out of every buying opportunity, until the prices away to new highs again eventually.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  57. Buying gold is a lot of fun, going to coin shops, looking at various coins from different eras and countries. A LOT more fun than buying stocks that is for sure. Today gold is DOWN, like Shelby I am happy about this, because I can buy more at cheaper prices than yesterday. Now I believe there will be people in the stock market who is happy as well that their stocks are down so THEY can buy at lower prices as well. The difference between me and them is that they will continue to buy ALL THE WAY to the bottom. That is not going to happen to gold this time around.
    Chris

    ReplyDelete
  58. The liquidity crises to follow (or even the threat of them) may provide massive volatility to the gold price, which will enable the knowledgeable to buy the dips (and some may even try to sell the peaks, but this will be a losing strategy overall).

    In no case will gold be losing value relative to most of everything else, because there is nothing of value out there in the world any more:

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/greyerz051810.html

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/may192010.html

    For those who have none, here is your chance. Don't blow it.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  59. Can anyone find any logic to support a peak NOW and long-term crash and consolidation in gold price?

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-225.htm#3066

    ReplyDelete
  60. If you could only sell gold, silver, or even a share that you actually possessed, and it had to be delivered to the person who bought it - in other words into their hands. Then you would have a totally different market than you have, today.

    Only a small percentage of those who buy gold or silver require actual delivery - they never see it.

    They buy and sell it without ever seeing, or wishing to see it. And they couldn't see it even if they did want to, unless they actually took delivery.

    Even shares today most of us do not take delivery. They are held digitally by the brokers who may LEND your shares
    to genuine short sellers (for which you get NOTHING)

    But there are 'naked' short sellers who sell anything in the markets without having, or even borrowing, what they are selling.

    THIS IS FACT! Whether you can see it (believe it) or not.

    Now even the dumbest among you should not need anyone to work out for you what this means.

    SIMPLY: THE MARKET DOES NOT WORK ACCORDING TO NORMAL ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS.

    Therefore it can do anything that those 'behind the scenes' with the real information want it to do.

    I will leave it there. YOU work it out.

    (Incidentally quite recently a commodity broker went to the SEC with all the info on what is going on (as if they didn't know) nothing happened, except he was made to feel a naughty interfering boy, and told to go home.

    Yes, it is ALL on record.

    I know all that has been wasted. Yes, I agree, I am a nutcase for even bothering

    ReplyDelete
  61. Ray, that is true, except for the statement "Therefore it can do anything that those 'behind the scenes' with the real information want it to do.".

    There are actually physical limits, because some are taking physical delivery. The manipulators have to work within those limits.

    What they will do is move the price around to extract the most profit possible, or other macro or inter-dependent objectives they have, but they do have to factor in the counter-effects of moving the price (too much or not enough or too fast or too slow) in either direction. Pricing controls all effects in markets, so they have monitor all the effects they are interested in. All this mis-pricing (deviation from what the free market price would have been, i.e. interference with normal feedback loop of pricing) is what is causing massive mis-allocation in the world, which will lead to shortages and inflation, and then when confidence in financial system implodes-- hyper-inflation. Mis-allocation also causes over-supply in other things, thus causes somethings to be too cheap. So shortages in some things, over-supply in other things.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  62. Another thing to keep in mind Ray is how unstable a system is that has 20,000 tonnes perched on the head of needle.

    99.9% of gold and silver investors are atop that needle head, ready to fall into the abyss, because they don't hold title to real metal. Once a few start to stampede, it will unravel. Then there will be no controlling the physical price.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  63. No, Shelby, I hold to my statement that 'those behind the scenes' can make it do ANTTHING they wish. That does not mean you are wrong, it means that I do not agree. Others may decide what they will.

    But 'They' are not capricious idiots, nor are they concerned only with stock maarkets, gold markets, whatever. Certainly not today.

    It is true that one cannot just 'move' the price of one item, especially gold because it serves a key roll (as yet) to them, without it affecting
    that which is related.

    I have mentioned how the most vital commodity (as yet) OIL is sold by the Cartel for gold.

    As gold is quoted in dollars which are more easily stored and shifted around the world than gold (All digitally today at the touch of a button) then the eventual amount received for their gold must return the set (peg if you like) of so many barrels to equal one ounce of gold.

    Pretty simple arithmetical yardstick for ensuring they are not cheated by the manipulation of 'fiat' currency inflation.

    All heads of state of ALL nations, and people in high places, as well as a few of us (comparitively) on the lower echelons of 'outside' with imagination, understand quite well the power of those who own and control the world's economies

    It is not a conspiracy, as such, any more than a government, or a company board of directors is a conspiracy.

    It is a world governing body that has existed for centuries. It was created to serve a specific purpose, by them, and has been well planned on proven principles. of sound economics (their brand) and a profound understanding of ancient philosophies and psychology long before the profession was ever recognised as a discipline by Academia. These allow them to understand our human weaknesses (seven deadly sins etc) and use them to advantage.

    (Remember 'Pogo' the cartoon series by Walt Kelly. There was a saying that ran through the thread - We have seen the enemy, and he is us'. How true - we really are our own worst enemy.)

    Just because we don't elect it does not make it a conspiracy. Viewing it that way stops us from seeing, and understanding the forces at work on our lives, besides that of Nature. They can even manipulate Nature today, and do so if, and when, it fits the plan.

    We also get to see our so called 'elected' (by whom) government for what they really are - puppets. ALL 'DEMOCRATIC' GOVERMENTS are 'puppet governments.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Shelby and Ray appear in agreement that gold and silver are headed higher, direct opposition to Derek. They are headed down now, will they continue i.e. gold below 1k and silver in the 12-13 dollar area? I would call Derek correct. Or is this just a minor correction in the overall trend up? Ray and Shelby's position. Weigh in guys. Derek its been a week and a half, let us know what you think. Shelby I slmost bought another Monster Box of SAE's today because silver is in the 17's where you said you are a buyer-should I buy it now?

    ReplyDelete
  65. I don't really follow silver as silver itself does not really interest me. However, the trend for gold is still UP.

    You will get many times these corrections on its way.

    They are particularly nasty when they start to hit where the 'stops' are, that triggers a lot of automatic fast selling as they hit one stop after another.

    They are not pleasant when they happen, even though you expect them, yet they are useful for a number of reasons.

    Here is a couple/ (1)They allow you to buy more for less.

    They shake out the weak, so it moves up stronger (assuming the trend is still holding.)

    Trends are trends because they do hold for some time. If they do not, then they are not trends. So obvious, but we so easily forget.

    If it ever breaks the trend line, then win or lose, get out fast. You can always climb back on board if you were wrong.

    I looked back over my years of trading and found that every time I lost money it was because I either went against the trend, or did not cut my losses, if any, and get out quick enough when the trend changed.

    It takes guts to get out if you have just bought, or if you have convinced yourself (or someone has convinced you) that it is going higher, but it is a life saver.Better safe than sorry.

    Professional buyers are still dishing out on million dollar TV advertising wanting to buy my/your gold. (Note: NOT! silver.) That's good enough for me.


    I am a metal detectorist. In the UK we have many Saxon and Roman hoards constantly being found.

    When you find silver it is usually in a sorry state. But when you find gold, even though it has been in the ground for 2000 years, and the last person to hold it was a Roman, it comes up as gleaming as the day it was buried, or lost.

    ReplyDelete
  66. if any of you assholes had an ounce of sense,you be buying LEAD instead of gold!
    hillbilly

    ReplyDelete
  67. Hillbilly (ahem I am mean Leonard), are you still on that lead habit after all these years?

    Sell in May was not profitable during the prior reflation from 2002-6 (not until the end of it in 2006-8):

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-240.htm#3074

    Ray I agree with much of what you wrote, except as per my rebuttal in link above. I do have a quibble with you about silver.

    The reason there is no as much buying advertising for silver, is because silver is way too cheap. The cost of processing it is too high in comparison. Silver is so cheap that none of the primary silver mines are profitable (well except for some very high grading). There are so many details you do not know about silver, and I can not educate you in one blog post. But if you do the research, then you will learn that silver will appreciate probably about 5 times more than gold will during this coming decade. The disadvantages of silver are more volatility, higher spreads, and too bulky and high processing & shipping costs. Also silver is the biggest weakness of the current elite system. Any one who goes too big in silver, is going to find themselves in trouble with the elite.

    I wanted to buy silver now, but here where I am in Manila, it is sold out. The dore bar small miners refuse to sell silver at this price. They hold it, thinking that the price is soon to explode over $20. I can buy more silver in Hong Kong or USA, but by the time I import to where I am, I pay about 15% over spot total. So I will only buy more silver now if someone can sell in Manila, or if silver drops into $16s, where I can justify the 15% premium for my situation.

    I don't know how deep this selloff will be, but I feel comfortable with my recent buys, because I have a long-term view. My advice is do not buy all on the way down. Buy some. Buy more the lower it goes, and/or as it starts to turn upwards again. But you can not know if an upturn is a false bounce. So you really just have to pick a price and live with it. I try to buy at many different prices, so I end up with a average of the period. And I try to always buy a dip or a breakout. The one thing I do avoid, is buying as a breakout matures. I must have bought before then. And extra capital is held, waiting for a dip.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  68. Shelby,

    I am not going to get into an argument about silver. It is not something I want to hold, (I am talking about the actual metal.)

    I learned from when I started going to auctions to buy and sell many years ago - 'Never buy anything you would not like to keep if you get stuck with it '

    If I did buy, it would have to be British 'hallmarked'. There is far too much fake silver around, besides the virtual stuff which abounds in the markets today'.

    As to the possibility of it appreciating more than gold, at current prices, percentage wise, that is possible because something selling at over $1,000 is more difficult to double, than something at $18 in an inflation induced market.

    The same applies to the junior producing gold mines, or even, 'worthless' non producers. They can quadruple, and even go to dizzy heights in price than such as Barrick or Newmont when the masses enter in a buying frenzy. (This happens later in the game, based on past markets). They also fall earlier, faster, and further, when the market turns.

    I use these lower priced stock for trading now, as they are more volatile if you pick them right. The masses are always attracted to lower prices, irrespective of actual value, in the markets. (psychological trait of common man).. .

    I will impart this bit of knowledge. When I see the professional gold traders stop their TV advertising to buy my gold, even though gold is still rising, I will be soon OUT!

    You, and they, can then have my gold, or silver. The 'Fall' will be on its way (and I am not referring to the time of year associated with falling leaves).

    ReplyDelete
  69. As to the current down turn. There is so much that can be said.

    Greece, and the so called problems with the Euro are stones to kill many birds. Like all these events, they have been known (as are others to come)
    by the 'Financial Elite 'long before they are presented to us - at perfect timing.

    For one a strong market CORRECTION was long due, and it is May a time when people have been conditioned to expect it.

    When a big ship sinks it takes down the strong swimmers along with the weak. The strong ones usually get back to the top.

    The gold mines will be the early recoveries in the current economic climate, and from what I know as fitting in to the agenda of those who make the rules.

    I maintain the currencies US Dollar, GBP, and Euro will move to near parity. This has been in the cards for a long time, un fact, since the Euro was introduced, and I have bought my currencies accordingly.

    Correction, since the Euro was first conceived. EVERYTHING IS PLANNED WELL AHEAD, and that applies to the crises, and the remedies.

    I do not worry if you don't agree. It would only shock me if you did agree.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Ray,

    One thing (among many other uses) silver is very useful for is a natural purifier. It can kill bacteria on contact. Utensils, clothing fabric, filling teeth, etc.. When added to the strainer of the washing machine, the clothes are fresher for longer in your (even damp) closet.

    If you place an ice cube on a silver bar, it will melt very fast, nearly instantly, because silver is the most conductive noble metal.

    Silver is used as the coating layer on aviation and other high performance ball bearings.

    Silver jewelry is very popular in poor countries, such as Philippines where I am.

    However, gold has very few uses other than monetary. We like gold because it is a compact and reliable store of value. We would almost like Platinum more, except it is not a large enough market to provide a reliable and liquid store of value.

    So as gold moves towards $5000, and the masses wake up very late to the fact that the elite are stealing everything from them, $50 silver is going to be a no-brainer. And then the monetary snowball effect kicks in. We like things that are valuable, so the more valuable silver gets, the more people are going to like and want it. So once we pass the $50 barrier, silver's rise should accelerate and then blow by $100 on it's way well into the 3 digits, if not finally blowing off into 4 digits, depending on several other factors.

    It is in the realistic realm of probability that silver will see a 100 times appreciation from bottom ($3) to final top of this decade ($300). And 1000 times is not impossible ($3000). Actually silver is more rare than gold in terms of above ground 0.999 bullion stock. I suggest you read these:

    http://silverstockreport.com/2010/too-cheap.html
    http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Silver%20Up%20To%205x%20More%20Rare%20Than%20Gold.html


    Ray I do agree that silver is more volatile (it wouldn't be such a phenomenal investment if people weren't ignorant about it). But the difference between silver and mining stocks, is that precious metal is something real you can hold on to in most any scenario. Mining stocks are subject to confiscation by the govts via capital markets controls, taxes, etc..

    Stewart Tompson has written recently that silver is like a leveraged call option on gold that never expires:

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Thomson/may182010.html

    I have suggested the long-term precious metals investor should first buy as much silver as they can physically carry, before buying any gold:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-225.htm#2910

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  71. Ray it is certain that the random function will not die. Your whorEshipping of the sheople herders is ultimate folly. And I use the word "ultimate" in the similar meaning as Soros recently applied to gold.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  72. Ray I am so tired of arguing with you and you keep making the same mistake over and over again. The elite are not omni-powerful as you claim. They are not powerful enough to force 0 entropy (non-existence). And you really should understand what that means mathematically before you reply. I know by your past replies that you do not grasp it mathematically:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-240.htm#3078

    ReplyDelete
  73. This is really not the point (so please do not focus on this post but rather the mathematical point above), but just for fun, I guarantee you that the elite can not force a 0 or negative price for physical gold. They would very quickly be bankrupted and killed by their own followers.

    ReplyDelete
  74. Silver is very volatile and it is not unthinkable that it could fall -50% in the next liquidity crisis for several months. So don't buy it, because I don't want to hear you complaining for several months, while I am on the way to earning 100 - 1000 times appreciation on my silver.

    The point is if you are not a long-term silver investor who understands the silver story and has done sufficient research, then don't be a silver investor.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  75. Ah ha!

    Again Ray has helped me figure out something very important. Amazing how arguing beyond the point where we think it is useful, often produces epiphanies.

    I realized now why most people prefer gold right now. It is because they respect the power and plans of the elite too much. They are afraid of silver, because they know the elite hate silver and want to de-monetize it.

    This sort of paradigm insures that silver is going to skyrocket, because precisely it is the elite's weakest point of attack and we can be sure that the weak point will suck up all the entropy from everything else they are trying to do.

    If you need a mathematical elaboration, we need to meet with a chalkboard. I am tiring of typing. Wrong format for dissertation.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  76. My summary about coming inflation (actually hyper-inflation relative to gold & silver):

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/inflation-or-deflation-t9-375.htm#3079

    Okay good luck everybody. I am going to try my best to sign off. Please do your best to hold tight to physical metals and get your relatives and friends to do the same.

    Good luck Derek. You too Ray.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  77. Gold/DOW chart is screaming "BUY GOLD NOW!":

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/inflation-or-deflation-t9-375.htm#3079

    ReplyDelete
  78. Derek, where art thou?

    ReplyDelete
  79. Ray,

    That famous Chinese reliability:

    http://my350z.com/forum/motorcycles/432373-kymco-super-8-150cc-scooter.html#post7349883

    ReplyDelete
  80. I wonder, if all is as you say, Shelby, why all the US companies that relocated in China some years ago, and by so doing, are supposed to be responsible for the collapse of the American economy, have not returned?

    It was bad quality workmanship by the US that collapsed their (world's largest) motor industry.

    Industry today can move and set up anywhere almost overnight these days.

    So why are not these companies fleeing China in droves? I mean, if China is so bad as you say, Shelby.

    You see, no matter how cheap you make things, if they do not stand up on a CONSISTANT basis, you will go bust very quickly.

    We can pick on any nation's products, and find there are cases of manufacturing error, or poor workmanship, we can highlight. We have seen this quite recently with the recall of a number of models by Toyota.

    Stop worrying about China, Shelby, and worry about the backward nation in which you have decided to set up home.

    Or, if you love the nation which gave you birth, the US, and you have genuine concern, and want to bring change, you have much to focus on there - even to occupy a lifetime.

    It is not only manufacturing which has fled the US, which you say is not profitable. Many service companies have moved to Asia also.

    You will hear, in a big way, in the near future, of the Chinese software industry. It is growing from nothing just a few years ago.

    I do not inform because I have any axe (or Tomahawk) to grind. I simply know that if I want to not only survive, but make money in this modern world, I have to face its realities, and to not be bigoted.

    All nations are being pushed together on this planet. We either live together, or die together. Ignore this, and you are a dinosaur, or Dodo, doomed to extinction.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Stick with gold until you stop seeing those expemsive, daily, TV adverts to buy it off you.

    Then, no matter that gold is still rising, prepare to get out. It won't happen immediately the adverts stop, as there will be momentum from new entrants.

    Professionals move in, and out, before it becomes evident to the mass.
    NEVER FORGET THAT!

    ReplyDelete
  82. I have never disagreed that developing world's role will grow.

    I have disagreed with the notion that China is not going to crash when the western nations do. Remember the USA crashed in the 1930s, even though it was in the position China is in now, and at that time UK/Europe was in position USA is now. The big difference is China is no where near as free market as the USA was in early 1900s. USA did not even have a central bank until 1913.

    I would rather place my bets on the free market, and no nation. I know the elite are betting on the death of the nation state.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  83. In other words, it is very narrow minded to focus on the nations or the politics. The elite are more free market thinkers, and that is why they gain wealth. They are thinking in terms of the increased economies-of-scale from eliminating or harmonizing the nation-states.

    The elite let us have our socialistic (patriotic == socialistic) fantasies about magical kingdoms...while they prepare to take all because they follow the free market...

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  84. Shelby

    You argue against yourself. You have me totally confused.

    I ask you again to explain, but in your blog not here, as I doubt anyone else is interested, how you would change how the world is run in a manner that would be possible as we cannot ignore what exists.

    I think this would be an exercise from which you would benefit as, at present
    you posts contain leanings to conflicting, even sometimes totally opposing, ideological views.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Ray,

    The elite understand that counter-trends to entropy grow exponentially before they collapse. Thus they try to be on the right side of that trade both on the way and the way down, and let the masses take the wrong side of the trade, because a human is incapable of comprehending the exponential function.

    Eventually the elite can not grow any wealthier because the own the socialism and can't exit the trade, because there is no capital remaining that they don't own. At that point, their jig is finished, and the ebola virus has consumed and killed the host.

    The elite are correct in so many facets, except for the wisdom that you can't hold and aggregate wealth forever.

    Whereas I have the view that I should help the masses. I should aggregate wealth and let it disperse again to help others. I think millions of people are wiser than I could ever be in terms of the net outcome of their many varied actions and decisions.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  86. USA has a 1000% (THOUSAND) debt to GDP ratio:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/inflation-or-deflation-t9-375.htm#3096

    INSANE! That should give you some idea that this is not a normal deflation nor inflation. This is death spiral for fiat debt system.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  87. Ray,

    Refer back to the definition of socialism & capital I provided, to have one manager (elite aggregate all) of all capital is no longer capital, it will be worthless and dead:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/is-capitalism-or-is-socialism-increasing-t18.htm#3091

    ReplyDelete
  88. The Daily Reckoning Presents
    The Chinese Gold Rush


    Chris Mayer
    While in Beijing last week, I visited the Cai Bai gold market. China is the largest buyer of gold in the world...and becoming larger by the day.

    Anecdotally, I can tell you the Cai Bai gold market was bustling with people. (I wish I could show you, but a guard promptly stopped me when I pulled out my video camera.) I was there in the middle of the day, and there was a good crowd of people buying gold in all its forms - from jewelry to bars.

    The numbers coming out of China back that street-level view. May is a peak gold-buying season in China, as it is a popular time for weddings. Even so, gold sales are up over 70% year-over-year, and the sale of gold bars has doubled from a year ago, according to CCTV, the large state Chinese television station.

    The surging demand may be the result of Chinese investors shifting their focus from real estate to gold. This is a snippet from CCTV's report, which gives you a peek into what is starting to happen:

    "Housing speculators from Wenzhou City in southeastern China are switching their money from property into gold following government restrictions on the real estate market.

    "Tao Xingyi, president of Beijing-based Jinding Group, a company specializing in high-end gold trading and investment, said the company's customers have increased by 300-400% recently...

    ReplyDelete
  89. Any one want to drink some Koolaid:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/is-capitalism-or-is-socialism-increasing-t18-15.htm#3102

    ReplyDelete
  90. Let me clarify it another way for you Ray. The elite are more free market thinkers in terms of the intermediate wrong decisions by the masses (which they help to foster and manipulate). They want to control all the world's capital (not money) and thus on the overall perspective, they are not free market thinkers, and their implosion comes at the very end, once they have consumed all the capital for themselves (control is consumption, they don't understand capital).

    The elite have been given this wrong understanding by Satan. I think some of them understand their ultimate fate, but they don't care because that is their destiny.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  91. Greeks paying 40% over spot for gold:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-240.htm#3108

    Well that is almost 300% higher than Derek's $680 prediction.

    Time is running short to get physical.

    ReplyDelete
  92. EU crisis will worsen:

    http://market-ticker.org/archives/2351-PushPull-Where-Do-You-Bet.html

    ReplyDelete
  93. The EU is alive and well.
    Spreading negative stories only feeds those who love to read, or hear, negative mind food.

    Yesterday; China is ditching EU investments.

    Today: China denies such action. China has CONFIDENCE in the Euro and EU

    ReplyDelete
  94. Ray the EU is not alive and well. EU is selling itself forever to the bankers now. Ray has revealed he is a diehard socialist and even speaks in the language of Marx:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/is-capitalism-or-is-socialism-increasing-t18-30.htm#3118

    Gold bugs would be well advised to completely ignore Ray and read someone like Howard Katz instead.

    ReplyDelete
  95. in exposing their thoughts so extensively on this site, it seems to me that Ray and Shelby have unfortunately exhibited themselves to possess some extremely bizarre assumptions and/or beliefs.
    Ray believes in some overarching control capability of world markets by world elites. Shelby believes that Satan is actively engaged in designing and delivering the destiny of these elites. This would all be laughable except that it is delivered so earnestly by them both.

    Derek, this site has been hijacked.

    Please can we get back to serious analysis of markets ?

    Andrew

    ReplyDelete
  96. No I believe that entropy is trending to maximum:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/is-capitalism-or-is-socialism-increasing-t18-45.htm#3143

    And I have said buy gold and silver and do not attempt to short these markets, and have given the reasons why.

    TPTB will attempt jack liquidity up and down and try to shake the trees to see how many gold and silver owners fall away.

    Those who want to survive and prosper with their capital will buy physical and stop the nonsense in this gambling pit. And get on to doing something productive in their life to generate income other than losing all their capital in real terms (relative to price of gold) by gambling.

    But if you would rather get back to the gambling, then please do. I will enjoy taking your capital, by simply doing nothing but holding physical gold.

    My understanding of entropy enlightens to me that I must expect people to do many different things, and I must respect that their role is not right or wrong, it is just is.

    Go forth and thanks for reading my views over the past few weeks.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  97. When I wrote "no", I mean that for you to characterize the foundation of my belief to based on Satan, is false. I am founded in math.

    Since I see that mathematically the so called "NWO" must fail (if it is ever even attained), and since I can reasonably assume that the centralized control over people is evil (because people like their individualized control and freedom), then I can say that the destiny of those elite who want to own everything is evil and will fail.

    But that understanding is not fundamental to what forms my belief system. Which is again, mathematical and specifically the exponential function and entropy that are the fundamental law of nature.

    Next time, if you are going to try to summarize someone's belief system, try to read more carefully and be more objective, rather than interject your own belief system. Which is obvious that you detest "religious beliefs", thus you try to mis-frame my beliefs as such.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  98. Note there are some signs that the Fed is continuing to drain liquidity, so for the next few months it is possible to see up to $100 drop in gold. One example is Fed announced swaps for the EU crisis, but hasn't issued them. And M3 is imploding.

    However, any thing can happen at this point, because the Fed has basically lost control. You won't see $800 gold ever again.

    What matters now is expectations of the public. I suspect the imploding M3 somehow reflects the end game, where fiat dies and there is a stampede to gold and silver. I have worked it out, but that is my suspicion.

    The rush into US treasuries recently is in effect another round of QE, irregardless of whether the funds have been up yet.

    Hope that is the type of market analysis you are looking for.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  99. I think Derek is letting his blog die on purpose.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Maybe Derek is waiting for $680 and $8?

    I think Derek is having an epipheny. I think he has realized that he thesis about deflation and precious metals was wrong. This epoch is a death of fiat march. Precious metals are the only alternative that the people have to protect their savings now, until the fiat system is restored with very high interest rates and/or backed by precious metals.

    Or perhaps he is trying to find some new investment opportunity or sales pitch. Or maybe he busy building the new website. Or maybe he fishing. Or...

    ReplyDelete
  101. I want to make it very clear, that the Fed and TPTB (elite) are powerless to stop the rise in the gold price for more than a few months:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-255.htm#3147

    Also in the link above, you will see I am not only posting in this blog. I post the truth all over the web.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Whether the Gold price goes UP or DOWN, what has this to do with whether the Fed (TPTB, the ELITE. whatever)has lost control or not.

    Control is not synonymous with 'Down' except to someone who does not know what he is talking about.

    Shelby you need to go to a religious forum where bible thumpers like you
    abound, and may appreciate your
    misinterpreted (by you) biblical ramblings.

    ReplyDelete
  103. "I post the truth all over the web."

    Your truth, Shelby' is not OUR truth. How arrogant to assume such. Keep it for YOUR BLOG

    We know, as do many, that Gold, AS YET, is in a long term UPTREND.

    Come back Derek, all is forgiven

    This does not mean it is not being 'controlled' in its ascent. If it were not, it would have been MUCH, MUCH, higher already with what is going on in our world.

    And it does not mean they can't make it dip, and stay down for sometime if they wished.

    They have been doing it all along.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Ray is now posting anonymously. I am know it is Ray, because he is emailing me the same in private.

    If the Fed can not stop the Gold price from going up and making me rich, then they are certainly not in control of everything. And thus nature is still in control of somethings. So thus, by simple logic, the Fed is not in control. They have lost control, they can no longer print fiats out-of-thin air and steal from me. From 1980 - 2001 they could make the gold price go down, and they could steal from me with inflation. Now they lost control and the gold price MUST go up. They have never since 2001, been able to hold the gold price down for more than several months.

    Yes the gold price is still under control in the sense that it is much lower than would be if people were not buying so much ETF, paper and unallocated gold, and instead if they were buying physical gold. That gives me more time to steal more gold at cheap prices, which all the more rich I will get, meaning the Fed is not in control, because I will use this wealth to educate more people about how to take more power away from the elite. And I will grow more wealth doing that, and it will just control to grow and grow, proving the Fed is not in control.

    Period! Now I am tired of debating your dumb ass Ray. You go on and on with your inane nonsense that we are puppets controlled by strings. Maybe you, but NOT ME!

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  105. Well said Anonymous, that Shelby is a P I T A. If I want to hear about Satan and God I will go to my priest. I do not want to hear about it on a blog about Gold.

    As for mathematics. Shelby you need to learn to add up, because your reasoning on what is happening, and who and what is causing it, does not.

    Ray is nearer the mark than you will ever be.

    And please don't thank us for reading your long epistles, I for one,barely give them a glance and even that is only because - THERE IS NO WORD FROM DEREK

    Les 'the lurker' (first post)

    ReplyDelete
  106. First let me say I post ALWAYS under my name.

    You need to know this Shelby.

    You may recall in apost here how he invited me to post on his blog to carry on our 'debate'. *Debate to Shelby means listen to only his side)

    I obliged. He could not take being challenged (and beaten) on his own blog, so he closed the threads.

    He asked me to start my own thread.which I did on China, he closed that.

    He has only time for pushing his ideas.

    Here is what I wrote to him privately - word for word

    You are a PHONEY and a Liar. You are immature beyond even childish.

    I did as you asked once. I started my own thread on China. You could not take the flak there so you CLOSED that without even having the decency to give an explanation.

    I wrote to you for an answer, YOU ignored that. And you actually believe yourself to be upright, straight and religious which you quote constantly on anothers blog where you have been told about your long religious chants, so do not talk to me or anyone about shifting sands.

    I INSTRUCT YOU TO STOP bombarding my private mail with your crap. Even crap has more use than what you espouse - it can be used to fertilise and makes things grow. Yours only stunts growth. You have now shown yourself for what you are - a PHONEY BALONEY

    ReplyDelete
  107. The word BLOG comes from WeB LOG

    A BLOG refers to a public webpage which is published by either an individual or a group of individuals.

    BLOGS are commonly personal journals/diaries and are used to comment on all sorts of topics, depending on the interests of the blogger (author).

    A BLOG is usually updated frequently, maybe monthly, weekly or even daily, IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE BLOGGER.

    Most blogs enable the visitors to post comments and/or suggestions ALLOWING INTERACTIVITY between the blogger and the visitor.

    Derek does not charge for his information, or for you to post here.

    And, so far, he has allowed for a lot of interchange of free thought about the subject.

    THERE IS NO OBLIGATION on Derek to update within a set time limit. or even at all.

    If he charged, then perhaps there woiuld be at least a moral obligation unless he had guaranteed such at the time for inducement for you to pay a subscription.

    OK?

    ReplyDelete
  108. Ray pretending to be "Les the Lurker" (haha, he can't even lie well). Any way, I doubt there is any one still reading, but now you see Ray exposed as a clown. If you fall for his nonsense, you deserve the results you get.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  109. IMPORTANT MARKET INFORMATION
    ============================

    Derek may finally get his scenario, but as I wrote months ago before gold dipped to $1040s, that never will you be able to buy PHYSICAL metals for $680 and $8 again. And in fact, you won't be able to buy PHYSICAL for $800 nor $12 again either:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-255.htm#3149

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  110. IF gold should ever go to 680 or 800 again, I WILL increase my portfolio of gold/ silver to 100%. Actually I am HAPPY when gold goes down, it rarely does though, because I can buy cheaper. But because there are quite a bit of people like me, with convictions about gold, it WILL NOT reach those low levels, unfortunately.
    I personally know NOBODY except myself who buys gold, nobody, and the people I do talk about gold with, think I am weird to buy it and say stuff like: "you cant eat gold" etc..."gold has no use".. bla bla, obviously they have no clue

    THIS PROVES gold is not in a bubble and will continue up. Shelby, how much of your money is in gold or silver?

    Chris, Oslo

    ReplyDelete
  111. The bad sign is to see the mines falling, or showing no positive reaction to a rising metal price.

    Some of you will already know that the mines generally lead the gold price, up or down.

    May the force be with you
    No, it is not set in concrete, but it usually is the good indicator. The odds are on that side.

    The other consideration is that all this is happening when there is so much
    happening where, in the past, even half of it would have sent gold and the mines heading north.

    The markets are becoming immune to these shock waves.

    It is like trying to bomb people into submission. After a while, people get conditioned to it, they even stop going to the shelters. It happened in Britain, it happened in Germany. It happened in Vietnam.

    So what positive, if any, can we read in all this.

    Well, to me it is this. That gold is not,as yet, in the hands of the irrational. It is, as one would expect, in strong cautious hands who are moving gold for more profound, serious reasons.

    They will constantly shake out the weak like good gardners pruning the fruit tree to garner more fruit later,

    We are still in a long term uptrend. They are still wanting to buy my gold, and are now even offering a 20% bonus
    (British TV) above their old offers. And that tells me a lot.
    Their money is very much where their mouth is.

    My belief is that far more gold has been traded, and sold, than there is available to meet it shoud there be a call to take delivery.

    This does not mean that TPTB do not have in their control more than enough gold.

    Like they have the diamonds sufficient to bring the price down to a few dollars - if it ever were in their interest to do so.

    BUT IT IS NOT IN THEIR INTEREST - certainly not yet for a long time.

    I do not think for one minute that the ETF (GLD) is holding the gold that it should be holding to back what has been bought.But that is not the only problem area.

    Reactions are par for the course, what is really important is the TREND. (and that still holds)

    ReplyDelete
  112. Do know what happens, but my comment
    'may the force be with you' was placed at the end, but it sprung in there in the middle. Sorry for it interrupted the flow of context.

    ReplyDelete
  113. I have roughly 80% of my net worth in physical gold & silver. I was looking to diversify, but can't find anything (not even land) that I like for liquidity and other reasons. So I will probably be going 90+% in on next dip, and holding rest in fiat cash forms for liquidity.

    The problem I have with investing in the mines is that it seems inevitable that taxes will be raised significantly, and gold mines probably won't outperform physical silver, especially if one is forced to pay very high taxes on brokerage account, but is somehow able to avoid paying taxes on physical silver sales (I am not condoning nor advising such activity :wink:, consult your own tax attorney). Silver mining stocks I wouldn't touch again, because I realize with silver so low in price, that silver mining is not profitable and thus they are mostly "mine the private placement shareholder" frauds.

    Also I have this theory that mining stocks will be poor investments during this epoch. I had mentioned this fact before, but I think many readers forgot, that most gold mines did very poorly as investments in the (start of) last Great Depression:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/stocks-f2/junior-mining-companies-t15.htm#544

    My reasoning is that the world is bankrupt and thus will be forced to tax (steal) and nationalize (steal) the mines and the shareholders.

    I am of the mindset that the elite are going for the big enchillada, and that no paper investment is safe. Physical metal or nothing this epoch. I realize 99.9% of the time such a strategy would be the wrong one. I think we are precisely at one of those 0.1% times in history, and those who make the correct choice, are going to be unfathomably rich compared to the rest of everyone else. And that is scary. I think it will be very hard to hang on to the gold & silver wealth gained.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  114. Ray I told you China enslaved its own people with the Yuan peg:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=agH5bsyUCva8

    Apple's Steve Jobs said "but they have nice working conditions, restaurant, cinema, etc".

    I tell you all that is shiny and modern, is not the reality for people. They have bills to pay. $137 per month is slavery.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  115. Derek where are you? Lead us!

    ReplyDelete
  116. This article sums up the gold story very well:

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19914.html

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  117. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/maund060610.html

    If silver does drop to $15s later, I expect gold to fall less than silver, then I will sell some gold and buy silver.

    I wouldn't dare play this with short-positions.

    -S

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  118. anyone have an idea why silver was up almost a buck today? slight dollar weakness and being oversold just a readjustment? A one day move and then back to testing the downtrend line? I'm still hoping for a seasonal summer drop to 14.50 so I can load the boat. If it doesn't show signs of a correction by first week of august I'll probably buy in size whatever the price. Anyone remember Derek? Seen any postings from him on other sites?

    ReplyDelete
  119. I wrote some thoughts about silver just now:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/gold-as-an-investment-t60-255.htm#3163

    It is possible the $1 up move is to form the right shoulder, before the coming down move to $15.50. I don't think we will get below $15 ever again. I would average down and don't be jealous about missing the $14.50 in Feb. We missed it, don't dwell on it.

    ReplyDelete
  120. If ever we did get a massive move down in silver again, as I said, I will trade gold for silver. But I am not going to sit in fiat or short-positions and take in the ass in the meantime from the banksters.

    ReplyDelete
  121. After a few days enjoying England's 'Côte d'Azur'which is the South East Torbay area of South Devon. I see Derek has still not returned to entertain you.

    May I therefore be forgiven for adding something which may amuze the cyncical, or even provide onterest to the silent but thughtful, open minded majority.

    HE TREND IS YOUR (REAL) FRIEND in the MARKETS


    I have read a number of those who term themselves 'analysts' who try to demean this statemen with various twists of cynicism. Yet, it is the one that is, or at least should be, at the very core of any meaningful analysis.

    And this holds true whether one's intent is to be a 'contrarian' or not. For, how can one act contrary to something not clearly identified, and defined.

    There is only one problem, and that is detecting a true trend. Sorry,one more problem, detecting when the trend has run its course and is about to change.

    Trends, to be termed such, must have a reasonable length of stay even the shortest.Some can be long and drawn out.

    There are a number of pointers that can enable an 'outsider'(which is most of us), to partake gainfully in a financial trend.

    These include a knowledge of 'real economics' as opposed to any of those sometimes referred to as 'schools' such as in 'Austrian' or 'Keynesian' that are covered in Academia. For 'real' economics do not look to Academia. Universities deal with pure theory.

    The key to understanding the 'real' is not difficult, in fact it is very simple and contained in one very simple, easy to remember rule - 'Those who own and control the gold make the rules.'

    Doubt it? How else could this world wide financial manipulation have been dragged out for so long before it became the so called 'crisis'(crisis to whom though?) of international proportions? In fact, how could it have really started with so many indoctrinated with Academia's many, and varied theories - most of them cored by the rule of 'supply and demand;

    Imagination is required in order to see the reality, and that is why Einstein rated it above knowlledge.

    You see, Academia is full of very highly erudite personages, but most lacking in the imagination needed to do anything but teach others where on occasions the rare individual comes along who has that most elusive attribute, he/she has retained and fostered since childhood, and who is able to apply it to knowlwedge.

    Unless that is fully understood and taken on board, all else is
    hit and miss - mostly miss.

    Two other points for we outsiders is - a trend must be allowed to develop as a trend before we join it, and as all trends never move in a straight line, or at the same velocity, pick the pivotal point when to join it. If you miss that pivotal point spot on, but are in the trend, then it will eventually pay off - unless, repeat, UNLESS you have waited too long and decide to join when the trend has run its course.

    And, of course, we have forgotten, or ignored 'the golden rule'.
    What is that again? The only hard and fixed rule in economics - 'Those who own and control the gold market, make the rules'
    (And if you haven't figured out yet who they are 'tuffy.tuffy' stay out and watch TV, or play a game with the kids.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Dear INTELLIGENT BROTHERS

    just one thing about investing in gold is u r at the mercy of a few traders of gold who at their own whim and fancy decide the buying and selling rates and when the rate is high like 1250oz 8th of june counld not get above 1235 for physical while selling this is a personal experience by me in india ( dont believe in comex or mcx both are like casinos and gold silver and other commodities like a table for them) so better to invest in property then gold or other commodities that are being used as casino like games : reason for me to say this is cause when the worlds media is saying price is rising why should they hesitate to buy
    advice---- stay away from comex and other similar exchanges do physical and u will learn

    ReplyDelete
  123. No one will argue that all the exchanges, and I mean ALL are manipulated. It goes without question, and anyone who does not see it are either terminally naive, or they have an ulterior motive for continuing the myth that it is otherwise.

    So, now that is out of the way. Lets see why we should be involved.

    In my previous post I mentioned the importance of TREND. This is something a casino does not have. There is no trend in any of the games I know of.

    The trend permits your money to sit in place to allow the trend to carry it on, or, if you mistimed your entry, wait for it to catch up.

    Fight the trend is the similar to fighting the current of a river, as opposed to swimming with the current while edging towards the 'bank'.(no pun intended, but it fits)

    Even if you buy the physical, you are still at the whims of those who fix the price of spot.

    Property is a great investment if you buy right, and at the right time. There are many what we call 'working class' citizens in the UK who are sitting on a lot of money they made during the housing boom. Yes there are those who lost some because they bought at the wrong time.

    I mean, if you had started a chain of Blacksmiths just when Ford was turning out mass produced autos, you would be on a loser. TIMING is everything. (There are better, and plenty of analogies, but you get the message.

    YOU HAVE TO BE IN A TREND, AND GET THE TIMING RIGHT.

    That applies whether you are in the markets, buying physical, or opening a business.

    The huge changes taking place are going to bring in new trends in many areas -DON'T VEGITATE, GET SPOTTING!

    ReplyDelete
  124. APOLOGIES for double post. I received a message that they could not complete the first one,and even gave some contact to report the occurence.

    When I re posted I found my first one had gone through.

    SORRY! Not my fault.

    ReplyDelete
  125. If in a trend everybody puts their money on one side and then they want to get out who will be the buyers as precious metals market is small as u had stated urself and the new buyers if they are any will have to lose tremendous money when the trend reverses which nobody can say
    like if just there is whiff of news that china is going to sell some of its gold in tonns or saudi arabia has discovered gold deposits in its desert then what will be the outcome

    ReplyDelete
  126. The financial situation of the world is that everyone will need to try to buy gold & silver. And right now less than 1/10 of 1% have. Don't worry about everybody putting their money on one side of the trade yet, we are no where near that point yet.

    -Shelby

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  127. Where does one start to answer a question that should never be posed.

    Reason? It shows a lack of understanding of the gold market in general, and of human behaviour in general.

    It is accepted that all the gold that has ever been taken out of the ground most still exists.

    Most of it is owned and controlled by the 'family network' (TPTB or whatever
    you care to name it) for centuries.

    They set its 'value' at spot every day about noon in London. They used to meet round a table, now they do it by phone. The price is flashed to their international 'network' before the market gets it.

    Gold has a number of industrial uses other than jewellery, but its main use is really a the setting of 'value' indirectly throughout economics,and is the money used by large traders in macro economics.

    It has served them well, and is well established by 'them' in the sphere of things so why should they change it.

    There are a number of things they can do to control the gold price. I am not going to name them all,or go into any of them deeply.

    As they control most of it,far more than the market could handle, they could sell, or indicate this, sufficient to panic holders and buyers.

    Which they have done at times.

    As derivative trading (virtual reality)
    is still alive and well, they do not have to actually trade the actual metal. And this is what they are doing at present.

    No nation could, or would, take them on
    for more than one reason. This should be obvious,and shows lack of understanding of how this world works.

    Let me digress here to make a point. Let us say China could produce everything the world needs (It could produce a lot more than it does,in other areas where it is not yet active.

    What would happen to all the nations who had no means of production?

    Let me put it closer to home. Let us say that one US State could have produced everything,or even most of what could be produced in the other states? What would happen to the US.

    IT NEVER HAPPENED BECAUSE IT WOULD HAVE DEFEATED ITSELF economically and socially.

    Why are there measures at present against any company gaining a monopoly
    by taking over other companies. It goes on, but slowly and by the back door. They are mostly owned directly or indirectly by the banks.

    An up-trend means that there are more buyers than sellers. So there has to be sellers.

    If things were getting out of hand, allowing for a lot of latitude today, and they were going to either sell, as in dump, a large quantity,or threaten to do so, the large professionals would be aware of this (this applies to all the markets) and they would be selling before the news hit media and masses.

    This would show up to the discerning eye in the technicals that something was going on.

    Whether you are holding the actual metal or not, a drop in the price will hit you if you are a holder.

    Those who bought physical gold at around the top in the late 70's and 80's lost a lot of money. $800 was worth a lot more then than it is today.

    To me, gold is for trading, not holding. Gold is no help today for escaping in the night over borders.

    To sum up, GOLD is of value within the system because those who control the system deem it to be. It is not needed like oil. It is only needed to buy the oil. WHY? Because those who control the system say that is the way they want it to be.

    Any nation,or at least those who manage to rise within the system to leadership know exactly where they stand and who calls the shots.

    We have witnessed what happens to any leader, and nation that forgets the golden rule

    Those who control the gold make the rules, and enforce them. Could 'THEY' change that? YES1 YES! YES! they could
    but why should they - YET!

    They are in total control, and, to them, all is going according to plan.

    ReplyDelete
  128. "........And no, it wasn't just a comedian's joke that Goldman Sachs placed shorts on TransOcean stock days before the explosions rocked the rig in the Gulf of Mexico sending stocks plunging while GS profits soared -- benefitting once again from a huge disaster, having done the same with airline stocks prior to 911 then again with the housing bubble. Who knew what, and how?..........."

    Just how can people go on blindly not seeing what is going on, and who is behind it.

    You cannot separate all this from the gold market.

    'GOLDman SUCKS' is just one of their panzer divisions.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Ray I recently read a report apparently coming from inside the USA intelligience apparatus, that says China will run out of energy and food with a decade. They are running an unsustainable bubble with massive environmental destruction and misallocation of capital.

    Some insight on misallocation:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/peak-oil-nonsense-t102-15.htm#3177

    Your dreams about a great China, are just fantasies.

    -Shelby

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  130. I recommend the following for getting an understanding of the steel grip on all our lives which has been created by those who control ALL the financial institutions large and small.

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lewis/jun092010.html

    He puts it to you clear and simple. (and I wager you will still not have the imagination to see the immensity of what we are up against.)

    You cannot apply rational reality formula in a world engulfed by virtual reality. But thst is what most continue to attempt to do.

    AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHERE LIES THE PROBLEM IN OUR UNDERSTANDING.

    ReplyDelete
  131. "...Ray I recently read a report apparently coming from inside the USA intelligience apparatus, that says China will run out of energy and food with a decade..."

    Come on.is that the best you can do?

    You can find 'reports' (especially among American 'intelligence agencies' that will tell you anything you want to believe. (or they want you to believe)

    You know - 'Seek and ye shall find'

    And you seek for anything that will help to convince you you are right.

    If it will help I will send you a few links on negative reports about China, or any nation you like. You can read yourself to sleep.

    Incidentally, I do not 'dream' about a 'great China', or a great any nation.
    I search and seek the REALITY.

    ALL NATIONS are controlled by the International financiers - especially yours and mine where they have their 'head offices'that control the rest.

    That's beyond you, I know. don't worry,
    you are not alone, you are with the masses.

    ReplyDelete
  132. I hope all is well with you. I've enjoyed reading your blog and look forward to your return. I am an investor/speculator in precious metals and wecome all opinions and insight.
    I am also a Canadian living in Ottawa and have been curious as to your home base. Your photo on your website, your reference to ice fishing last winter, and your reference to the last time the Leafs won the Stanley Cup make me suspicous that you are in the Ontario area????

    Bob Crook

    ReplyDelete
  133. Gold & silver investors guaranteed to lose

    The more I think about this, the more I feel that buying gold & silver is futile:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/how-will-we-physically-trade-gold-silver-at-5000-500-t61-105.htm#3182

    I would like to hear your thoughts. You can post online or reply to me privately if you prefer.

    ReplyDelete
  134. GOLD IS AN IDEAL TRADING VEHICLE.

    It's great advantage is - You can ALWAYS find a quick and ready buyer and that is no matter what the rest of the markets are like, or a nation's economy in general.

    There is international acceptance, it does not rely on any particular political view, religion, or culture.

    You don't get tyre kickers, break downs
    and returns. And it doesn't rust away on a car lot, or in the driveway while you keep it, or require advertising to unload.

    It has held its role through millenniums of history.

    But.to be a trader of anything and live, you have to buy and sell at the right price. You also have to treat your trading as a business.

    No one has ever invented a new and better 'model'.

    In times like the present when there is a lot of 'action' you can make a ;living, or support income, by trading the paper (the right to buy or sell) as with options.

    But NEVER 'DABBLE' in options, learn about them like you would, or should with any business you decide to take up.

    Ignorance is NEVER 'bliss' in business.

    If you own good mining shares, trade (sell) 'covered' options. Your own shares cover the option you write.

    That's enough. There are many ways to make money out of being a gold trader,
    and, unlike trying to be a Vet, or brain surgeon, most of what you need to know is common sense and familiarity.

    ReplyDelete
  135. THOUGHT for TODAY (And EVERYDAY)

    There does not have to be a crisis.

    You have only to be made to BELIEVE there is one.

    People act,and react, to Beliefs (Perceptions) not to REALITY.

    You are what your mind is fed, not your mouth,

    When you believe you are acting on reality, it is because you have been expertly convinced it is a reality.

    It is the principle upon which hypnotism works. And it really does work. Even professional hypnotists will hide just how powerful it is, and can be in the right hands.

    ReplyDelete
  136. "Gold is for losers, silver is for fighters"

    Interesting to read that others are thinking gold (after taxes) will outpace inflation, even though objectively it has not been:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/how-will-we-physically-trade-gold-silver-at-5000-500-t61-105.htm#3190

    ReplyDelete
  137. I hope you all haven't pissed Derek off. I've gained a new perspective from Derek, and I appreciate his time and intelligence.

    Derek, the majority of people who visit your blog, don't post or want a strange debate about physics, god, or gold. They just want to hear what you have to say; about anything, but mostly about the markets. God bless you Derek.

    ReplyDelete
  138. ray and shelby, I am hoping you can both weigh in on a couple of areas. First, precious metals other than gold and silver. Platinum metals group metals like platinum, palladium, and rhodium. your position may depend on the outlook for nuclear power, auto sales, etc..

    The other topic I want your take on is
    Rare Earth Elements. There is sooo much information about these now with applications throughout high tech, green tech, and military applications. Companies like Avalon, Quest, Rare Earth Elements, Molycorp, and the like. It seems that there could be an even greater squeeze on the supplies of these than silver which has so many industrial applications. Obviously they were never used as monetary metals since they were discovered after the world stopped using metals as a backing for fiat. These seem to fit Rays support for China as emerging tech giant, and shelbys perspective to invest in productive pursuits vs gold which isn't used in industrial applications.

    ReplyDelete
  139. ".....Derek, the majority of people who visit your blog, don't post or want a strange debate about physics, god, or gold........."

    I can understand the 'God' bit, and perhaps a little bit about the 'physics' but you don't want to hear what others thinks about GOLD ??

    Who do you think does the buying and selling of GOLD? Who moves the markets = Derek????

    I am doing OK in the markets because I DO TAKE AN INTEREST IN WHAT OTHERS THINK = because how they think determines how they act.

    You have obviously a very small undeveloped mind that sees no further than his nose.

    Why do you think Derek invites comments on this blog? Because he knows it is important what others think.

    FEEDBACK,and discussion is important

    Single thought is useless unless it stimulates collective thought.

    Even your comment is of interest to me because it tells me how YOU think, and the type of surfers coming to this site.

    ReplyDelete
  140. And for the other 'Anonymous' interested in 'other' metals etc.

    I know little about them and there is enough to keep me occupied (focused) with gold and the vagaries of the market.

    At present it seems big 'fiat'money is searching for ways to express itself in other ways, especially commodities, that will protect it against loss in the coming inflation era.

    There is a crisis only for those who are persuaded by media to see a crisis.

    If anyone wants to believe China is on the verge of collapse, there is plenty to feed that mindset.

    People do not have the imagination to see that China is FOUR USA's in one, and it is still growing.

    It's son's and daughters are getting well educated at home, and fill universities, and often the top ones throughought the Western World.

    They are also working in the R & D#s of the large growing companies.

    China spends only small percentage of its growing wealth on the military. It does not waste its money. It is sinking its wealth in infrastructure and technology.

    Unless China did an about turn, lose its sense of direction and copied the US, it can only grow. It will need lots of commodities of many kinds.

    We are seeing slowly how important this is, and that China has got it right. So we are doing the same. Construction on infrastructure is alive and well in the UK.

    China knows the importance of gold in International Economics, and Financial system. It also knows that TPTB would find it impossible to change this for a very long time so they are building their position in the gold market.

    The gold price sets the price directly or indirectly of everything that is traded - even the price of silver.platinum, whatever.

    Watch China, watch GOLD!

    ReplyDelete
  141. RN, you say those who bought gold in 1980 lost money...what about those who bought in 1970 at 35? You are very selective with your numbers..I am sure al lot of gold bugs sold their gold at the blow off stage. Or those who bought every year during the 1970s...and even those who continued up until today, are they worse off? Did you buy around the year 2000? Just accumulate and you will beat the casino stock market. The "golden rule"...WELL, if YOU want to be part of those "who rule", you should start buying gold...it does not make much sense to admit that those with the gold control the game and then NOT recommend buying. It seems to me you should start to buy if you really believe it. IF I controlled the gold market I WOULD want gold to go UP , and those people who "rule" will make that happen I am sure. Those who believe in gold does not really have to prove ANYTHING. Gold HAS gone UP, it continues to go UP, this is a trend, I do not see why this trend should stop until some serious shit hits the fan. THEN those of us with the gold will show you the golden rule. We will use our gold to buy stocks, property etc..

    ReplyDelete
  142. China is not out to conquer or control the world. It has been witness to the folly of this in others over the centuries.

    It is hoping to change the world by example, not force.It is using Confucian ideology where it can as a guide. So if you really want to understand China and just about most of Asia, then learn a little about Confucius and watch how it fits.

    It is already affecting your life more than you think, and will continue to do so whether you/we/I like it or not.

    Africa is another dark, sleeping continent starting to come to life. It is being inspired, and helped, by China.

    Think of the construction in many areas that will be demanded there. It blows the mind.

    The world is coming alive like never before.

    Crisis? What crisis?

    ReplyDelete
  143. Also, if you seriously believe any "dark forces" are behind the gulf spill, or that 9/11 was an "inside job" you are seriously nuts. I am very much aware of Alex Jones type of conspiracy theories, and other "gold bugs" also have a leaning toward those kind of conspiracies. I am NOT impressed by their "evidence" for those kind of LUNATIC ideas. Did you know the Haiti earthquake was an "inside job" as well....LOL, crazy crazy people

    THOSE PEOPLE ARE SERIOUSLY STUPID, not believing in garbage like that does not make me "naiv", it makes me SANE

    ReplyDelete
  144. Anonymous

    Why do you not at leat put some initial at the end of your post? Do you like hiding behind all the other anonymice?

    Yes, I did say that those who bought at the top in the last big gold climb lost money. And they will do it again, and again,and again.

    Why don't you learn to read, and also comprehend. I have made enough points in my posts about TIMING (in and out).

    I also mentioned many once very poor UK citizens are now quite comfortable
    wealthwise because they bought property early in the boom years, and sold before it ended.

    They are now 'selectively' moving in again slowly but surely.

    Buy at the top, as so many of the masses do, and you invariably lose.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Anonymous. Yes, as you say, these conspiracy theorists are all crazy.

    You 'coincindence theorists' are the only sane ones.

    Now does that make you happy? Feeding people what they want to believe usually does.

    I don't want you bed wetting because you might think there are such things as conspriracies.

    I will send you one of my kids 'Winnie the Pooh' story books if you like to help you think only sweet thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  146. I believe thoise in charge are rather STUPID, I KNOW they are. Never underestomate stupidity. Basically they sold their gold in the year 2000. Those who believe in 9/11 type conpiracies see those "conspirators" as GOD-like, being able to control THOUSANDS of people. Their brains must be huge. It is not SANE to believe those things. It makes no sense whatsoever. Either you understand it or you dont. I have listened to Alex Jones, I know the mindset of those people. They are pathetic. EVERYTHING is a conspiracy. Everything! He even has a guy called David Icke on his show, a man who has convinced thousands of people the world is controlled by a elite of LIZZARDS - no joke. I personally know a few people who believe in 9/11 inside job ideas. They are all muslims. They hate the USA. They hate Israel. They hate jews. They HATE. NO credibility. They also happen to be rather retarded- they do not look intelligent - they look rather moronic. They never seem to critize AT ALL any of the so called "evidence" of conspiracy while at the same time not believing anything of the overwhelming evidence of what obvioulsy took place on 9/11. Listening to those people , they remind me of holocaust deniars. Sad, sad..The folks in the USA who continue to spread inside job moronic ideas, do their own country a very bad favour because a lot of people who hate the US out there take those insanities to heart. But of course, you can continue to believe that the world is controlled by God-like superhumanbeings who only want to do EVIL (like an oil spill) . I personally know the truth. And the truth is that no such fantasy exists.

    ReplyDelete
  147. 'Coincidence theorist' ? Hey I like that. It fits these guys well.

    Anonymous (The coincidence theorist)

    All that knowledge you claim to hold.

    As far as truth is concerned, it is apparently true that you never learned how to paragraph, or the reasoning behind it.

    And it is also true that even if your native language is not English when, if so, some things could be excused, paragraphing is common to most if not all languages. And there is a good reason why it exists.

    As for 'holocausts'. Which one do you refer to. (Rhetorical)

    There have been many throughout history but a certain element (not ALL) of one culture only believe in one, and want the free thinking world to believe likewise.

    They have even made an industry out of it. And even learned from it to inflict in on their downtrodden, deprived, neighbors. (To the disgust of the free thinking world)

    At least, now we know why you don't like the word conspiracy. (like we didn't know before)

    ReplyDelete
  148. So many things to respond to:

    1) The top elite did not sell gold in 2000, only the central banks did. And who do you think was buying? Duh!

    2) Of course the elite want gold to go up, and they don't pay taxes on their gold sales, but we do, and thus we will lose a big chunk of our purchasing power even though gold went up. Gold is a losing investment for the common man.

    3) Only gold and silver have high enough stocks-to-flows ratio to be stable as store of value (i.e. money). Thus other precious metals are useless for a monetary crisis. And in fact, due to taxation, Gold is pretty useless for the common man, only useful for the elite. For the common man, the only hope is silver.

    4) Any one who has deeply studied the facts of 9/11, knows it was impossible not to be sanctioned by Dick Cheney. For one thing, never in history had all of our F15s been ordered to stand down for an entire day, and Cheney even reiterated that order as the plane was coming towards the Pentagon. There is so much more hard evidence, but I can't cover it all here. I don't want to hear your ignorance about the issue. State your facts. I studied it for 2 years and didn't believe in conspiracy theories. I grew up. Maybe you need to.

    5) Ray I never said China would implode. You are missing my point. My point is exactly same as yours, they are going to be the force that helps transistion the world to their model. And their model is socialism. Call is Confucionism or whatever, it is still centralized management ("for the better balance of humanity"...yeah right! I know how socialism ends everytime but that will be some decades from now). Yes China will gain power and influence. Yes developing world will become modernized. Yes, yes, yes. But do you understand where it is headed? It all dies at the point of NWO. That is the peak of socialism. It ends with gnashing of teeth, open sores, and utter and complete economic failure and fascism (some decades from now).

    6) Silver bugs might want to print this one out and hang it on their wall as a constant strategy reminder:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/how-will-we-physically-trade-gold-silver-at-5000-500-t61-105.htm#3192



    Also sent the following article for publishing to major gold sites (also attempted to send the email to the famous Brooksley Born):

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/derivatives-what-are-they-what-do-they-do-open-discussion-t4.htm#3191
    (Ultimate Regulator Failed)

    ReplyDelete
  149. Socialism, or most of these 'isms' are as good, or as bad, as those who sit in the driving seat intend them to be.

    A bit like a gun, or even nuclear power, they can be a force for good or bad, it depends on the intent of the user.

    There are good and bad police officers,
    it is a matter of ensuring we maintain
    an acceptable ratio between the two factors.

    I have a very good idea how the 'final solution' is expected to work out but this is not the place to explain it.

    To encapsulate it into two famailiar words but which will require imagination to expand the meaning, I
    could call it 'Inverted Communism'.

    To give a further clue. Capitalism fully controlled by its financial empire will be the effective 'macro' government. Government services will be taken over by the private sector. But the private sector will be controlled centrally ( not by the elected government)

    We will not have currency - only digital plastic. Your wages can be added, and taxes etc., removed at source.

    Sounds terrible to us. However, those born into it will know no difference.

    There will be an effort to ensure that the vast majority of the population will have the basic necessities of life.

    But I think the opportunity to amass wealth will not be possible, certainly among the lower stratas ( all outside the Elite Network which will be quite large, as it is now.)

    Don't worry, this will take a long time yet.

    A man who forsaw much of this well over 100 years ago is an American - Edward Bellamy in his book 'Looking Backward' (he was actually looking forward, to the year 2000)

    ReplyDelete
  150. there is NO "evidence" of any "9/11 inside job" simply because there is no such phenomenon. Anyone who belives such insanities is NOT SOMEONE I would trust as far as something as important as financial advice. The world surely is filled with STUPID people rather as filled with superintelligent politicians controlling thousands of people masterminding incredible conspiracies. RN , you have NO cedibility. And that is a fact. This is not about being "naiv", it is about being SANE, and understanding good information from very, very bad info. Please do not even try to elaborate more about your extreme views about 9/11. That is all I have to say about this. Take care.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Ray what you describe is slavery, which is what I expect under socialism. It also can't survive, just as slavery in USA died not because of the civil war, but because of technology.

    Anonymous, again you have proved nothing about 9/11. You stated no verifiable facts. All you stated is that we are stupid and you are not. Prove it or hide from your inability to do so. Btw, I never said that 9/11 was an "inside job". I said that our F15 fighters were ordered to stand down for the entire day all across the country. That is a fact.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Ray agreed it will be decades before we reach that vegetable state for the masses. I describe that as a "Pay in Blood" system. Similar the working conditions of the Chinese who have been committing suicide lately. Yes the Chinese model is coming to rest of world. I am glad Ray you finally articulated the slavery coming. NOw I can agree with you as to the result of socialism.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  153. so what? They stood down.. That is not "important" info in any way for me. Why should it be? But I do not think like Alex Jones and his friends. I just dont get it. My mind is capable of filtering good info from bad info.

    It is absolutely incredible to read the weird theories about 9/11. You have "studied" it? amazing...and your conclusion is that superintelligent masterminds are involved behind the scenes? I suppose George Bush with friends then..Cheney and other "scary" people. LOL, YES it is stupid. It is IRRATIONAL , like a religion. Pulling off something like you suggest is ofcourse IMPOSSIBLE. It is emberrassing that people actually believe such nonsense.

    If you want to "study", I suggest you study something else, for example the markets. But here is something for the conspiracy FREAKS out there:

    http://www.loosechangeguide.com/LooseChangeGuide.html

    I suggest Derek writes something new so we can get a thread with info about the markets.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Anonymous, I made my conclusions about 9/11 way before Alex Jones existed. Alex Jones is a sensationalist. Please do not hold him as the icon of the scientific evidence of 9/11. He is noise.

    Facts:

    1) It is not important that never before in history had the entire USA fleet of F15s stood down?

    2) I have a copy of a news broadcast video where the broadcaster is reporting that WTC7 (the 3rd building that fell) had imploded, but it was still standing right behind her out her window. How did she know it had fallen or even that it was going to fall, given at the time she broadcast that, no one had any idea it might fall yet. Did she read someone's mind? Or did someone feeding the mass media screw up their timing of news releases?

    3) As an engineer who has studied the data, I can tell you that it is physically impossible for twin towers to have fallen all the way to ground without the lower steel being cut. For me to explain the physics to you is outside the scope of the typing space I have in this tiny blog window. Suffice it say the steel I beams nearer to the lower floors were several feet thick. Coincident with the above, termite was found and there are photos of beams that have termite cut signatures. And the govt refused any private party or independent party access to any of the steel of this nature. It was all shipped out of the USA for scrap without any independent testing.

    I could go on and on and on, but you will never listen to the facts. You made up your mind already. I formerly thought like you did. But as an engineer, I can not ignore the facts.

    ReplyDelete
  155. One more point, had the F15s not stood down that day, at least 1 if not 2 of the commercial airplanes could have been intercepted. That is a fact.

    And that is not important? Are you on drugs?

    ReplyDelete
  156. As for super-intellient master-minds, I urge you to watch the video (at the first link in the following link) and read what I wrote about how a few guys who have been around since Reagan, have controlled the entire opportunity cost of the world, by manipulating gold:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/economics-f4/derivatives-what-are-they-what-do-they-do-open-discussion-t4.htm#3191

    The video will cement what I wrote in the post at above link.

    You really think they don't have the power? Again I must ask if you are hallucinating? Watch the video!

    You are wasting your time on markets. There isn't much time remaining before your life changes drastically. Slavery is just ahead for you (and me and Ray too). Watch the video before you make any rash conclusions!

    ReplyDelete
  157. But Ray is correct, some of you may not even realize you have been enslaved later. TPTB are so clever with conditioning your minds. You think Alex Jones doesn't work for them? He would never be that popular without their consent. Ray knows what I am talking about correct Ray?

    ReplyDelete
  158. Shelby and anyone else who values or should value their time time and patience more.

    There are certain things one should not waste their time upon, here are one or two

    (I) Do not try to convince anyone who believes the earth is flat that it is round. Forget the evidence.

    (2) Or to convince an ardent catholic that the idea of the Virgin Mary is a highly probable fable.

    (3) or to say the so called Holocaust
    has been stretched beyond the bounds of credibility. And that there is no justification for it to be deemed a crime by anyone to question it if you are speaking to a fanatical Jewish Zionist.

    You are OK with a true Torah religious Jew.They know the truth, and even argue it themselves.

    (4) Forget trying to convince those who believe an Arab wearing a night dress and living in a remote cave in the wilds of Afghanistan plotted 9/11

    If they do not see it now, they never will. or they have some ulterior motive for pretending they do not see.

    It is also a dead give away from what cultural heritage they belong.

    And though there are others,let me finish with the 'lone gunman in the bookstore taking out Kennedy.

    State your point,and then leave it.
    They would refute ANY evidence you brought up.

    They will also never believe that those who control the gold market make the rules. Though those who do control it have told us, and shown us on many occasions.

    ReplyDelete
  159. No barter system coming ever:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/how-will-we-physically-trade-gold-silver-at-5000-500-t61-105.htm#3195

    Gold and silver investors are hallucinating.

    ReplyDelete
  160. Own a business that has no tangible inputs:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/how-will-we-physically-trade-gold-silver-at-5000-500-t61-105.htm#3196

    There is the most important investing advice you need for this epoch.

    ReplyDelete
  161. You should read this again, I added many more points:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/how-will-we-physically-trade-gold-silver-at-5000-500-t61-105.htm#3195

    (Barter will decline, not increase)

    ReplyDelete
  162. Because interest rates are already infinity (for some in private sector and more and more so).

    Here is the timeline of steps that will occur:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/how-will-we-physically-trade-gold-silver-at-5000-500-t61-120.htm#3201

    ReplyDelete
  163. Looks like Surfer Boy has left the building!!!

    ReplyDelete
  164. The freegold site removed all my posts because I obliterated their thesis, but you can read all my posts here:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/precious-metals-f6/how-will-we-physically-trade-gold-silver-at-5000-500-t61-120.htm#3201

    Make sure you understand this. It is critical.

    ReplyDelete
  165. For two days now I have not seen the 'We want your gold' TV ads.

    I do not know about you, but I am taking breat care.

    'Let the holders beware'.

    (1) It may be they are just taking a breather, (2) They have cleaned the little housewives out of all they had.
    (3) they know a big correction is coming (They would not back off for a small one)

    Take your pick

    ReplyDelete
  166. Fascinating how conspiracy FREAKS always (including "they never went to the moon" type of conspiracies ) ALWAYS focus on little details and IGNORE the big picture - like the "story" about F-15. There could be - but only is a few or one - reasons that those planes were on the ground. Who cares? Why would I even care about this- It is actually not relevant. But the brains of conspiracy freaks are not capable of selecting info. How can anyone with a sound and logical mind believe in this mastermind conspiracy idea? IT IS RIDICLUOUS. No, the F-15 story is actually not important at all, but your brain is not capable of understanding this. Your mind works just like the rest of the sheeplet of the world, but YOUR group of sheep is a different kind. You stay with a DIFFERENT crowd - the conspiracy nuts. I believe in gold as an "investment", but by studying gold I have seen and read more conspiracy insanities than thought possible. The most incredible was how Obama/ government was behind the Earthquake in Haiti. How can you argue against people like that, few people BOTHER, and because of that all the "evidence" the conspiracy freaks put forward is left unargued on the net. Why di even I bother writing this, what a waste of time to spend on the conspiracy misguided freaks.

    ReplyDelete
  167. Anonymous, it is called preponderance of the evidence, which is supported by statistics and probability theory, a course that I got a 99% test score in college.

    Can you really take yourself seriously when you can't stay on topic of the numerous facts that i presented, and you instead introduce irrelevant circus about Alex Jones, Moon Conspiracies, HAARP earthquakes, etc (which have nothing to do with me as I haven't cited them nor do I believe in them)? You introduce noise and think you are arguing about the signal. You don't have the math background that I do:

    http://goldwetrust.up-with.com/knowledge-f9/book-ultimate-truth-t148.htm#3159

    I suppose next you will argue that our money is not really printed out-of-thin air by a group of bankers who own our politicians and who steal from us? That is a conspiracy too eh?

    You are not worth replying to any more. Just keep masturbating in your little, naive world.

    I

    ReplyDelete
  168. I was published, "End Game, Gold Investors Destroyed"

    http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/moore/2010/0615.html
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20327.html

    ReplyDelete
  169. Ray about the signal you use of ads to buy gold, I noticed that Richard Russel's Dow Theory signal was violated to the downside, and this projects to major implosion of the stock market.

    I am also not sure what to do.

    But any dip in gold will be temporary. But also keep in mind the thesis of the article I published (see prior post).

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  170. Anonymous

    You are one of the many 'coincidence freaks'. You know why you are, and I and others know why you are.

    You are part of the 'wolf pack' of little people who feed on the forums, as you have been directed, who have been roped in by those you think have some 'affinity' with you and hope to earn their commendation.

    But, I assure you, you will suffer in the end like all the rest. They are using you like they use everyone.

    One day, when it is too late you WILL learn

    ReplyDelete
  171. Of course they are using me. It is already too late.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  172. About 'conspiracies.

    Part of the conspiracy process is to install the system of debunking them. This is doen by many means.

    One of them is to 'create' a conspiracy where this is obviously not one, or it can e so easily disproved.

    It's a sort of 'flood the market' with them. This all helps the confusion and gives support to those engaged in even passive debunking that all who see a 'conspiracy' are nut cases.

    The point is, people are so naive as is in dumb, they fall for it.

    If most really knew truth, they all would be shocked and there would be a spate of bed wetting no matter how old they are.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Many of you wanting to "invest", may be suffering from this:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/focus-retirement/article/109811/midlife-crisis-how-to-cut-the-cost;_ylt=An2D0oGjLrBHXOFpl.cEWMu7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1NTg4dGJ0BHBvcwMzBHNlYwNmaWRlbGl0eUZQBHNsawNiZXdhcmV0aGVjb3M-?mod=fidelity-readytoretire

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  174. Ray if you want to get a larger audience, post to my forum immediately. For rest of the day, there will be 100s of new readers per hour, due to my published article being so controversial.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  175. DON'T expect to convince anyone who is an avid advocate of "our government did it" or any similar belief.
    Why? Because the very nature of believing there is a SECRET and POWERFUL group that did this makes it absolutely impossible to ever prove there isn't one.
    Here's why:
    Bring up the fact that some item of evidence that SHOULD exist if there was a conspiracy doesn't exist, then the reply is "of course not, it's SECRET."
    Bring up any evidence that it was done by middle easterners in commercial airliners with box cutters and that can be dismissed as fake evidence (after all, a POWERFUL group of conspirators can fake any evidence, right?)
    Bring forth any witnesses that offer testimony that contradicts the secret-conspiracy theory and they can be dismissed as either "under pressure from authorities" or "part of the conspiracy" or "just mistaken."
    Do a good enough job of questioning the credibility of the conspiracy theory and _your_ motives will be questioned and the suggestion made that you might even be part of the conspiracy.
    Bring forth any technological expert that testifies to anything that supports the conventional view or contradicts the conspiracy view and they can be dismissed as either incompetent, paid off, or part of CONSPIRACY!
    BU!

    FREAKS!

    ReplyDelete
  176. There are conspiracies and conspiracies. They have been part of human behaviour since we became 'humans'.

    Our history is full of them. They happen daily in business. It happens in families, and in relationships.

    So, the principle is well embedded.

    However, we are concerned with major issues of a national, and international scale. And what they really show is that we humans are still as naive, and easily duped today as was our early ancestors.

    There is no 'SECRET' group of powerful
    beings who act behind the scenes pulling strings.

    There is a network headed by a Financial Elite who control all nations and governments mainly by 'DEBI' the most powerful and successful weapon ever devised by man.

    But they are far from 'SECRET'. They have told us, and shown us by action who they are.

    I know who they are, and not because anyone has told me. I OBSERVE!. And I listen when they speak by word and action. Even the media tells me, because I learned that the best information is contained in what they write 'BETWEEN' the lines.

    Is there anything I can do about it?

    Answer in one simple word - NO!

    Why? For the same reason that I know I cannot walk through a brick wall with all the positive thinking in the world
    behind me.

    Only 'collective' thought has any real power And I have long observed that my fellow man (and woman) have not the free mind and imagination to see what stares them in the face, and even jumps out at them everyday.

    So, I learn to live with that which I cannot change, and, at times, use it to carve a better niche, and enjoy this short life that has been loaned to me.

    But, I draw great comfort in knowing, and at times like now, letting 'them' know that I am not fooled by them. I know who they are, and what their end game is, and I see through their 'CONSPIRACIES' no matter how well they think they execute them.

    To all those millions who do not see, and observe, - DREAM ON! (And enjoy your bedtime 'Winnie the Pooh' stories that mommy used to read you.)

    ReplyDelete
  177. I have already posted this once, but it never came through. So, if it does eventually pop up, don't blaim me.

    There are conspiracies and conspiracies. They have been part of human behaviour since we became 'humans'.

    Our history is full of them. They happen daily in business. It happens in families, and in relationships.

    So, the principle is well embedded.

    However, we are concerned here with major issues of a national, and international scale. And what they really show is that we humans are still as naive, and easily duped today as was early man.

    TRUE! There is no 'SECRET' group of powerful beings who act behind the scenes pulling strings.

    But there is a network headed by a Financial Elite who control all nations and governments mainly by 'DEBT' the most powerful and successful weapon ever devised by man.

    But they are far from 'secret'. They have told us, and shown us by action who they are on many an occasion, especially recently.

    I know who they are, and not because anyone has told me. I OBSERVE!. And I listen when they speak by word and action. Even the media tells me, because I learned that the best information is what they write 'BETWEEN' the lines.

    Is there anything I can do about it?

    Answer in one simple word - NO!

    Why? For the same reason that I know I cannot walk through a brick wall with all the positive thinking in the world
    behind me.

    Only 'collective' thought has any real power And I have long observed that my fellow man (and woman) have not the free mind and imagination to see what stares them in the face, and even jumps out at them everyday.

    So, I learn to live with that which I cannot change, and, at times, use it to carve a better niche, and enjoy this short life that has been loaned to me.

    I draw comfort in knowing, and at times like now, letting 'them' know that I am not fooled by them. I know who they are, and what their 'end game' is, and I see through their 'CONSPIRACIES' no matter how well they think they execute them, and try to fool me.

    ReplyDelete
  178. Still no 'WE WANT YOUR GOLD' TV ads.

    Also, I note how the 'mines' are showing little or no positive reaction to any rise in the gold price.

    The 'mines' lead the way, usially, up or down, and the 'juniors' lead the mines. And that is what is happening at present.

    No, I am not telling you what to do. It's up to you to read the signs.

    I know what I am doing (have mostly done)

    Take care

    ReplyDelete
  179. Still no 'WE WANT YOUR GOLD' TV ads.

    Also, I note how the 'mines' are showing little or no positive reaction to any rise in the gold price.

    The 'mines' lead the way, usially, up or down, and the 'juniors' lead the mines. And that is what is happening at present.

    No, I am not telling you what to do. It's up to you to read the signs.

    I know what I am doing (have mostly done)

    Take care

    ReplyDelete
  180. China Asset Bubble

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99HNFCn5RP8

    1) Law of diminishing returns (I had figured this out in prior posts), given that China is spending > 33% of GDP on fixed assets (which doesn't account for depreciation and maintenance).

    2) 12.5% of GDP stimulost, does not account for the multiplier effect of the massive increase in fractional reserve lending by the banks (which did not occur in USA stimulost).

    3) The concept that China is a land of savers is false (for example saving as being an owner of a condo in an empty building, or more generally the point of #1, where savings is overconcentrating in fixed assets).

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  181. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J4g-H--5yg (debate on China)

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  182. Debate:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J4g-H--5yg

    I found this debate very informed and fascinating! Looks like we may get a busting of the China real estate bubble, followed on by a 5 year plan to stimulate sales of household durables! Can any one say "BUY SILVER"!! Yeah! The central managers will just keep creating 5 year bubbles and popping them along the way, trying to "pretend and extend". Eventually (many years or decades) it will all end horribly.

    -Shelby

    ReplyDelete
  183. I think Derek decided to see how many comments an individual blog can handle before blogspot's database crashes.

    ReplyDelete
  184. What is it with you Americans that you allow yourselves to swallow up all this media garbage, especially that turns you all into nervous little people jumping from perceived enemy to the next.

    I remember many years ago someone wrote when the Berlin Wall came down that America will now look for another 'enemy' as it can't survive without one.

    And wasn't it Khruschev who said, as Russia was perceived as collapsing, that what they were doing really was denying America an enemy.

    Marx, I believe wrote that Capitalism cannot exist without wars, and therefore it will always seek an enemy.

    It tried little enemies, ones that can't really fight back. But they don't last long enough, or have the impact because no matter how the media try to make them into big time. underneath, though the people go along with the patriotic hype at the time, they know they are walk overs.

    You all so want to see China implode. You wouldn't care how many people suffered if social unrest fired by outside interference brought China down.

    You express it continually in all your forums. Hate, hate hate, that is all you spew forth. You search the internet for everything you can find that hits at another nation. Even though our British troops are dying every day alongside you in Afghanistan. you even lap up any anti Brit news your media spits out.

    (Remember, the only fight we didn't join you in, you lost - Vietnam. And we have only about one sixth the population of the US)

    I guarantee, China is here to stay. It is not following the American way.
    and although it has a large defensive military (It's a big country to cover) it spends only a fraction on its military as does America.

    The EU is here to stay, and so is the Euro. From what it is going through now will come strength.

    Britain has had to climb down from its world dominance, and it is now the time for the US to do likewise.

    We have all to learn to live together, in peace. Or it will be in pieces.

    Get with it, join the 21st century. We've all had a good run.

    Stop looking outside your borders, look and take action where they don;t want you to look - WITHIN!

    Remember POGO? "I have seen the enemy, and he is us". Was Walt Kelly trying to tell you what I am?

    ReplyDelete