Tuesday, March 1, 2011

All that Glitters....

First off I am going to address one of the few open recommendations I put up in my last post. 


This trade has so far panned out to plan.  After a final surge and throwover the upper trendline to complete the entire pattern from $17.90 / share, the stock is entering a large corrective stage that should play out over several more weeks and possibly months.

Initial taget is the gap-fill at $183.00, where a close-out of 50% of the trade would be wise to lock in some profits.  Stops can be hiked down to just above potential retracement point at roughly $223.00 per share, right above a gap-fill that could draw prices up in a counter trend move.

After this, the price should break free from the channel to the downside and offer higher profits.  Stops can be rolled down to accomodate.

I am still holding no position in US Treasuries as I think they have at least another several weeks of rallying ahead of them.  The move thus far indicates this is the case and is nowhere near enough to be counted as a full counter-trend move.  That being said, the next move in treasuries should be a hefty one and having some cash positioned to take advantage could prove extremely profitable.  In the next leg I plan on shorting TLT instead of using TBT as I think the % losses in terms of actual dollars and cents will be far higher than the % gains in terms of dollars and cents with TLT.  I will once again be using a direct short-sell coupled with options plays.



GOLD AND SILVER
As to my writings in the past on gold and silver, the metals have relentlessly pounded higher making me look like a fool in the past while.   My only saving grace is  the fact that in fall of 2008 I was scooping up physical metals and buying silver and gold miners like crazy.  The fact that I sold the stocks or "lost" them to cash buyouts by late 2009 still left me with the lion's share of gains in equities terms, and I haven't sold a gram of my physical.

My position, for the umpteenth time, on the metals:  If you don't own any physical metal at all, you should.  Regardless of hype or hate, they are money, they have functioned as money more than any other item and always in the most advanced economies of history.  So, if you don't have real money, you should really get some.  It's a lot more likely to survive than cash in a house fire (although I do recommend keeping some of that under the mattress, proverbially speaking, as well.)  Is it a smart idea to take a huge block of cash right now and throw it into metals for savings?  Smart no, but you could do a lot dumber.  I would suggest averaging in and treating it like a constant deposit savings account.  I frequently purchase my silver from NW Territorial mint and have been very happy with their product lines and delivery times.

That being said, gold and silver in the mind of the world is not money just yet, but an "alternative asset" to traditional ones.  Precious metals are traded in an intangible financial market for the most part, and as such are subject to the exact same emotional and powerful forces that any other financial asset is subject to.

The recent run-up in commodities in general has not been the subject of "fundamental" factors.  It has not been the subject of massive inflation.  It has simply been the subject of a "reflationary" period in pure psychological terms in which optimism has multiplied to both set new records and match previous records set in the 2008 highs.  The Daily Sentiment Index for Oil reached 95% this week, the same reading it hit in 2008 within a week of topping out at 144.00 / bbl and crashing an amazing 78% in a mere 5 months.  Does a 95% DSI reading by itself signify an imminent top?  No.  Oil looks to have a bit of room to run, but I am sharpening my short stick.

This type of one-sided psychology is prevalent in the commodities markets, with virtually all metals - including gold and silver, grains, oil, and many other commodities all reading 90% + readings of Bullish participants.  This is not a healthy market, this is a massively one-sided market that needs to unwind and potentially completely reverse the level of optimism.  Some of these market have already recently rolled over after rallying in tandem for many months, and others are still eking out new highs.




Gold's psychological position is similar to silver, although not quite as extreme.  Interstingly, gold is having a much harder time confirming the peak price in silver, and the HUI is having a hard time confirming the rising price in gold.  The precious metals market is diverging within itself outside of simply waning internal momentum.  This fracturing is often seen in significant broad-based tops (DJIA versus Transports, according to Dow Theory, is a high-probability of an impending reverse of trend).  I believe we are witnessing such a peak at the same time as inflationists believe we are now (finally!) entering the period where inflation really accelerates.
I do expect gold to eke out a new high above this one, however this is not a time I would be adding anything "glittering" to my portfolio.  Sentiment is at a long term extreme and this is becoming a band-wagon trade in the immediate term.  The faith that proponents have in its continued rise is remarkable.

Even Goldman Sachs posted a report at the start of the year stating that they expected the average gold price to be $1650/oz, 15% higher than the current levels.  Major gold producers like Barrick Gold, AngloGold, Freeport-McMoRan, and Kinross have strong coverage from analysts, with less than 5% offering an opinion as negative as "underperform" and 0 recommending to sell.


All of this after a move like that.....  What were they saying in 2001 when the last analyst covering the market finally threw in the towel and Barrons said "I see literally nothing good about gold right now"?




Those are my current thoughts on gold and silver.  The silver short is still in play, and I have currently moved my stop all the way up to $37.50.  So there is some significant downside risk to this trade if the price rockets to the moon like everyone is betting.  The reason I'm holding out is that everyone is betting, outside of the commercials and the devlish JP Morgan Chase, that silver is a bull's dream.  This is a mature price structure with a one-sided retail participation that has jumped immensely in the past 12 months.  A move of this type, once it reverses and regardless of the asset since they are all subject to the same herding forces of participants, turns quickly and profits can be made blazingly fast.

Best of luck out there.  More thoughts on the broad markets as a whole coming soon.

Cheers!

Derek.

199 comments:

  1. There is only one useful guideline - the trend. If you are with the trend you will make money, even if you wrong foot your entry - unless you really ignored the actual signs (not analysts rhetoric) that the trend has changed, or about to.
    You can always get out in such cases without much loss if you set your limits and are nervous.

    When something is hitting new highs, and the climb, and volume, is steady and persistent, the trend is unlikely to change. A theatre doesn't generally close the show while there are people queuing for seats. Also, consider the prevailing economic and political conditions.

    Forget economic theory, no matter what school is flavour of the month. You all should have seen enough evidence to know without anyone telling you that it does not apply - except perhaps in 'home economics'.

    We were all told centuries ago by the man who sits atop the money power tree, but whose family name you will never see touted in the top of Forbes rich list. Believe me, if it were ever possible to assess it, and reveal it it would make Gates, and Buffet appear like paupers - even with double, or treble their wealth (I could extend that but you get the point)

    Anyway, the head of the family at the time told us that when you control a nation's money press, you control the nation - now, today, make that plural.

    This is NEVER going to change no matter how many 'piddley' (usually blown out of proportion) little 'people's revolts you see on your TV screen. So LEARN TO LIVE WITH IT - PERIOD! And I am not going to waste time explaining.

    I could give you many reasons why the gold price could fall to half its price, or to double and treble and all would be valid potential reasons. This is why those analysts who sit either side of the fence could be right.

    The point being made is, the reason does not depend on Academia's economics, or your/our(the masses) knowledge of the true political, or economic conditions, and the predetermined destiny for our world.

    There IS a plan, and all events have a relationship to the success of that plan, and all is on target. You need to figure out the plan to understand. BUT THEY HAVE TOLD YOU, and SHOWN YOU - EVERY DAY.

    Back to where I started. What can WE do - we can FOLLOW THE MONEY. If money is flowing into commodities - invest in commodities. When it changes, money will tell you - it will flow out. Ignore politicians or analysts telling you it is (or isn't). With the internet today you can see it. The price of gold, or silver (or Coffee), is what you can buy it for, and sell it for.

    I visit my supermarket almost daily. I have a check list of prices in a small note book going back a few years of basic commodities - and I quickly check them. They tell me whether food costs are going up or down - not some politician, or analyst.

    Food prices are importan because it is mainly this area which really sparks a 'peasant revolt'.

    Follow the trend and never become a bull (or bear)fighter. Leave bull fighting to toreadors

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  2. I'm not buying silver and gold at these levels. You said that is going to $10 and $750.

    When can I buy at the levels you in which you said?

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  3. How to win (or at least - to survive)

    Develop your sleuthing techniques. Or if you prefer, learn the Red Indian way - 'read the signs that others fail to see, and also to understand, what they learned (often the very hard way) that 'white men (especially those allied to government and power) speak with forked tongue'.

    Gaddafi gave a clue that should have let you know that all is not what it seems in Libya.
    He blamed the trouble on 'Bin Laden and Al-Quaeda. Got that? Note it is not the Zionists, Israel or the nasty old US, it is that man who wears just a white sheet, and lives in some cave on the borders of God.... whoops sorry..Allah knows where.

    That told me all I needed to know to confirm my understanding..........and it should YOU!

    There are other clues...but can you spot them.
    Why is all this important? If you ask this, then do not be playing in the market's murky waters.

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  4. I know it's a struggle, but I am trying to keep things going here, and at the same time it helps to reinforce one's thoughts, and beliefs, to oneself.

    Writing thoughts down does help, I assure you. So much rubbish travels through our heads by the second, it is hard to remember salient points.

    I wish to highlight a point with which Derek closed his above update. "....A move of this type, once it reverses and regardless of the asset since they are all subject to the same herding forces of participants, turns quickly and profits can be made blazingly fast....."

    Market moves down, you will note, are almost always, without exception, steeper, than their climb. So, profits can be made quicker, and faster.

    Guessing, and pre-empting when they will come is the danger to be avoided. Shorting can be very lucrative, and for those with huge pockets, it costs them nothing when their brokerage accounts are well stocked. This way, they can afford to be wrong for a long time as it moves against them.

    They bank on the adage that what goes up, must come down, eventually. And, that when it does they will be in, and reap the huge rewards.

    Knowing the true amount of shorting, and at the critical levels which 'bears' are vulnerable is the privilege of the few who are able to get the TRUE feedback from the market sources (because they own or control them at the very top. Computers, today, do all the calculating for them in seconds. No need for an army of accountants.

    This way, the real 'bears' are able to move in only when all the mommy bears, and little baby bears, have 'thrown in the towel' (or whatever bears throw in).

    It often causes a big run up towards the end as so many have overstretched their limits. This leaves the big bears up at the top a clear run down as the 'longs' suffer, first stunned disbelief, then panic to bail out.
    It's all a big game, and like you often study the 'plays' of your favourite baseball, football, or soccer teams, you must visualise, and study the markets.

    I remember once,when I was still at high school, I filled in a football(soccer) weekly betting slip (all legal in the UK, though supposed to be eighteen plus). I chose as my 'banker' match (cert win) the top of the league playing at home to the bottom of the league. I mean, how could it fail?

    Where there is betting,of any kind, and big money at stake, anything can happen as I learned. You guessed it, It did not even draw. I assume because many had thought there could be some 'fiddle-de-dee' so had put it as a draw at best. It was perhaps my first valuable lesson. But more would come later, when I entered the great 'financial market game'.

    Little changes over time, except the techniques of concealing malpractice.

    We cannot join those in the know for the big ride, but we can jump on quickly once the ride gets under way. Look at all the charts where these falls have occurred and see if you can't spot a point where you could have jumped aboard
    and reaped some of the 'fruitful' enjoyment.

    Cheers to all

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  5. US Government blamed 9/11 Bin Laden and Al-Quaeda also and everyone knows that 9/11 was a inside job. More of the same in Libya.

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  6. The Libya affair is just another 'stage play'. There is a 'plot', and all the key players have a script.

    A 'political system' is being introduced throughout the world which goes under the name of 'democracy'. It is the perfect one that permits the mass to feel they have a say - at least until
    the dissenters have all been converted.

    It is also so easy to manipulate and ensure that only those who 'accept'and are 'loyal' to the International Financiers who own us all, will ever get to the top positions to present the script they have been given.

    Enough said on that. What is important to know is that there is a lot more to come, little by little,so we must prepare to accept this during our market forays.

    All is manipulated, but it is not just to make money. It is a power play, they do not need money, they have more than enough, and they can create it out of thin air anyway.

    All these trillions and trillions of dollars you hear about do not exist except in a computer. It is all digital.

    There is only one thing in our favour that cannot be manipulated and that is THE TREND. It is our 'finger print', our DNA, our trail, All movement leaves a trail. We must follow where they go - our money must follow their money.

    There is an old saying. When you see success moving, hang on to its coat tails.

    THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND. SIMPLE. SO WHY DO WE FIGHT IT? I have done it, and lost money EVERY time in the final analysis. I have NEVER lost while following the trend. But I have to fight to resist the temptation to go against it, it's a human weakness, I guess.

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  7. Ray,

    You have defintely opened my eyes. At first I admit it was hard to believe, but now I look at events happening in the world and look at the the big picture and how the market reacts to events and most of them seem planned and executed. I'm still working on identifying the trend, but I must say thank you!

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  8. When people are talking, be it normal conversation, or TV discussions, or wherever, no matter the educational level, please note how many times the word 'basically' is used.

    When I was at school, I do not remember hearing this word - at least used so profusely in its current context, in place of say - fundamentally, mostly, mainly, predominantly, generally........Not that these are all fully interchangeable if one wishes to be more precise in the use of our language and fine tune them to the context of the communication.

    So, fundamental to the essence of economics upon which Academia expounds its theories
    are the three basics of human need - Food, clothing, and shelter. It is the same with all animals except that they are 'clothed' still by nature.

    Of the three, I would place 'food' as the first priority.

    Revolutions stemming from widespread population unrest are the most easily ( in fact, to me, all the ones that come to mind are) connected in someway to food - usually lack of it ( 'Qu'ils mangent de la brioche' The people have no bread 'Then let them eat cake' Brioche being a form of cake)

    The word 'inflation' has many meanings and connotations. It is perceived by the masses as costs of needs, rising higher than the income to acquire (or the perception; or fear, thereof).

    As I have just mentioned, the need for food (that includes water) is the first essential (anyone is free to argue this) then if we want to know what the trend is in food costs go, at least once a month, to the supermarkets armed with a list of the main items you normally purchase and check the prices. Consider, and allow for, the occasional food promotion. If the prices are rising (trending up), you have inflation in the key area envisioned by the masses. Forget what the government gives out as statistics.

    In the stock market, you can see when the prices are rising (in particular new highs being reached )

    Look at different time scales - I check 'six months', 'three years', and 'all data' provided by 'Big Charts'. Think what the earlier speculators would have given for what we have provided today.

    If the movement up is predominant then it is an uptrend (or what some people might term 'bullish'). And vice versa.

    Perhaps, Kiley, you could mention what YOU feel is your problem in identifying the trends, as I cannot see things through someone else's eyes, just as other people cannot see through mine. Once I see how you see it, then I might be able to be more positive and focused in my response.

    About 'manipulation'. Knowing it is all organised and planned well ahead by powerful financial forces does not change the events, only our perception of them. This allows us to not waste mental energy unnecessarily trying to puzzle things out. It also permits us to adapt to those forces and use them as best we can to our own needs.

    It is like if we go sailing, knowing the weather forecast, or knowing all there is about weather does not permit us to change the weather, but we can use the knowledge to prepare, and adapt our sails and mental attitude (very important) to the conditions as they arrive.

    'Idus Martii' or - beware the Ides of March (15th) or so the saying goes. Could this apply
    this year - who knows. So far, I think more from May is a time to watch even more closely.

    However, there will always be a trend to follow, come what may. There is just no way to not produce a trend. If they changed the trend every day, in itself that would produce a trend

    Best wishes to all - friend and foe.

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  9. Libya
    When these 'events' are set up, they are often done in a way to get more than one bird with the stone. (Tunisia got Egypt, got Libya will get....
    go on, have a guess.

    Besides the obvious advantage, it has the effect of defusing the real reasoning behind the affair.

    I will stick my neck out and say that with this Libya incident it will get rid of Gaddafi (In spite of the fact that he seems, at the moment, to be on a winning streak). He will be forced to step down but will not meet the fate dished out to Saddam (I believe we have assured him of this).

    But this is also setting up the stage for a unified action by the so called 'International Community', which is a cover name for the 'International Financial Elite' (which is a cover name for....no let's leave it there.

    This intervention, coming VERY soon will bring him down and introduce a 'regime change' (just a change of puppet). But the Libyan people will think they have won true 'freedom', and will be grateful to us, and inspire others in 'dicy' areas. One could use here the vernacular abbreviation term 'lol'.

    And it will also be much easier next time to let the US off the hook of continual'bad boy' and get the 'International Community' to act in unison to put down any dissenters who do not see things the way they are required to do by those who really rule (us all).

    Keep smiling, it's all in the game.

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  10. As I reminded all (including myself) BEWARE THE IDE'S OF MARCH. I could add 'beware the (T)ides of change.

    Great change is sweeping the world which are changing our lives dramatically. The greatest folly is not recognise what is happening, why, and how we can adapt the change to our advantage.

    I do not see 'doomsday'because change brings opportunity.

    One of the greatest changes which few people have understood its impact and brought into their ability to make rational judgement - particularly in economics, and the markets is that of 'virtual reality'.

    When you can create something 'digitally' reality does not have to exist, certainly not in the same way. This makes 'truth'confusing because in away reality is truth.

    Academic economic theory is based on 'reality'.
    It therefore has always tried to masquerade as a science and has been pushed out to us as such. To put it simply, it is based on the the elasticity of supply and demand. But when we can create available supply digitally, and have it accepted as fact, it blows it all in your face.

    This is why more than ever before, though the saying has been around for longer than virtual reality - the trend is your ONLY friend - in the markets.

    Ignore this at your peril.


    to

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  11. Thoughts for today

    Make a note of the current 'key tops'(Highs) of such as the Dow,Nasdaq, Gold, Silver S&P. Then watch for these highs being passed, or failing to pass (bouncing away before passing, or even reached)

    It could do this for a short time. Then watch for slight down turns (with perhaps swings up and down) Then watch for it breaking its low resistance level.

    When you see this it is a very strong sign that it is on its way down - probably slowly but surely.

    I do not feel we have today the circumstances for a free fast fall, or a need for the 'manipulators' (whether you believe in them or not) to occasion one, so it is likely to be a slow descent.

    Treat your speculating as a business. Assess your past trade behaviour. What did you when you gained - when you lost. Focus on only a few. This build strength in your ability to monitor and judge. (I am reminding myself all this as I set it down. WHY? Because it works.

    Self discipline should be easy because we are in charge. So why isn't it? You tell me, or better still - TELL YOURSELF!

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  12. One stock that could be a benefactor of current events is LNG (liquid Natural Gas). You do not need me to explain why.

    This company had been steadily rising for some time - you could have tripled your money over last six months without a problem.

    However, strangely, just before, and I mean JUST before, the Tsunami hit it had a dramatic fall. Did someone know what was about to hit and wanted to grab these shares at a low price? - Makes you think about HAARP et al).

    As one would expect, they are now on the up again, so those who jumped in on that fall have already mad a killing.

    One to watch.

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  13. ACT 1. scene 2

    The Great LIBYA play or 'Much ado about everything' or 'As You Like It'

    Whoever wrote the plot could have it ranked up there with Shakespeare's comedies.

    Why I say 'Much ado about everything' is that it was staged for far more reaching audience, and event, than is apparent to most. This will unfold later. I could tell you, but that would spoil the suspense. And you would not want me to do that, would you.

    Just stay with the trend but watch for the obvious signs of change as I have pointed out. Once a new trend develops then repeat - stay with the trend. Remember Newton's first law of motion. That is my guide. and it has never let me down. Ignoring it has.

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  14. How do we get the Arab oil producers (and the rest)but especially the main oil merchants, the Saudi's, to go along with our wishes? Well there are a number of ways but here is one that never fails.

    At present they are getting a good price for their oil. For example, their price yardstick which ensures their price stability is that they sell at 15.5 barrels for one ounce of gold
    which price ALWAYS averages out that way eventually.

    It has been that way for many decades.

    If you don't believe it, check it out, or ignore it and 'plod on regardless'.

    Present oil price about $105 means they are getting $1627 for their 15.5 barrels. One ounce gold will cost them $1424. That means $200 more gold value.

    This is why the - Gold price, oil price are quoted in dollars (three caballeros). Keeps things simple for both sides of the equation.

    Mess this up, and you mess up the whole macro economic structure that currently exists. This is why anyone who tries or even talks about, bucking the system gets dealt with.

    Soon,the ME current upheaval centred on Libya will have run its course (until next stage)and the oil price will drop. This will drop the price of gold. It will happen before the main event as serious money will have better timing (knowledge) than the mass and will sell into the climb - as always. The dollar will also firm and improve.

    One does not need a Crystal ball, just the imagination that brings forth knowledge that all is manipulated by a very powerful force. I am, today, even doubtful about so called 'natural events (disasters).

    It is unbelievable by most at just what can be done these days.

    They are most fortunate in having installed an education system fit for 'dummies', and a super efficient highly controlled media that completes the programming that ensures an endless supply of mass unbelievers.

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  15. " The first 'bubble' takes out 'the masses'.
    The second 'bubble' takes out 'the contrarians' "

    And when you are one who belongs the masses but who thinks 'next time I'll be a contrarian - it's double whammy (wham bang thank yer mammy)

    Far better to keep it simple and be 'trendy' - it's more 'user friendly'.

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  16. R N,
    Follow the trend... no one is replying to your posts. Get off this site and leave it to Derek.

    "THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND" -Ray Newton

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  17. ANONYMOUSE

    i did not post to get replies. Of the few who come here what doe's one expect Even Derek doesn't bother to reply to them.

    Anyway, just to make you happy, I had already decided to stop posting.

    Will leave you 'wanna be' Lemmings to 'once every three months Derek'. Happy landings over the cliff.

    RN

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  18. Derek did you get stopped out or are you still short? I suggested earlier that I thought we had enough momentum to get past 40 in march, but apparently not. I'm thinking of taking a small speculative short here. I know you were thinking of raising your short stop to 37.5 but if you did not get stopped out you could be in a good place now. Let us know what you are thinking.
    Ray you're the only one keeping a discussion here, always appreciate your perspective.
    I miss shelby's religious insights. Anyone know where he is posting now?

    I wanted his thoughts on Harold Camping and familyradio.com stating that may 21, 2011 is the day of tribulation. Ray did you check this out? what do you think of it?

    Best

    Ed in Jersey

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  19. No, he moved his stopped out to $50.

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  20. Ray, where will you post for those of us who want to keep reading you?
    M.

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  21. Well, at least it wasn't me keeping everyone away
    - was it 'Anonymouse'?

    'Stay with the trend, right to the end' (or stay out)

    Here's a little ditty for you

    'The first bubble for the mass brings trouble
    But the second one takes out the contrar-i-an'

    (It is easy to see the reasoning why)

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  22. Ray any comments on possible corrections?
    M.

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  23. Sorry Anon 'M' But Derek deletes my posts. This apparently is a 'restricted' site. I have some important good stuff on 'direction'. I discuss privately with top analysts where it is appreciated.

    He will probably delete this before you read it.

    Again sorry

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  24. I will give this a try (see how long it stays) but will keep it short as I am too busy making money in this great trading market. But must keep my eye firmly on it.

    This is a quote from ane earlier post - March 10th -

    "....'Idus Martii' or - beware the Ides of March (15th) or so the saying goes. Could this apply this year - who knows. So far, I think more from May is a time to watch even more closely.

    That still holds!!!!!!

    NEVER! NEVER! Fight a tape hitting new highs.

    But when it starts failing to make new ones, a especially if volume tails then watch out. You will have time to make money on its down trend.

    The PM's may be pulled down a little as the main market sinks, but it will recover, the fundamentals, as they stand - STINK and will for some time to come!

    Don't think where can I put my 1000 or so dollars. Think where would I put my Billion or so dollars if I had it? When you can find a reasonable answer to that, you will be enlightened enough to know where the market will go.

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  25. Thanks Ray for your comments,
    As i always ask you, where can i keep reading you if this is a restricted site?
    M.

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  26. Anon 'M' I hear you, and have done before. However, at present I communicate only with certain analysts. I have not the time to be committed to a blog, whatever. Even forums draw too many demands to respond and can detract the mind by too many 'negativisms'. One must stay positive, and focused when trading.

    If oil does not fall then gold will continue to rise probably to $16000 plus. As it stands the OIL cartel - mainly led by Saudi Arabia, is making a lot of money over the odds. This is helping to keep them 'on board' against Gadaffi. Though, Gadaffi is not the main target or reason for the current trouble. (He could be eliminated in seconds if he were the real target).

    There is far too much to explain to get understanding, so will leave it.

    China is going to impact this world, and that means the markets, far more than the world can begin to understand. We have a situation in the markets we have never had before, this is where people are going wrong linking things too much with past performance. China is like no other nation - large or small. And, believe me, it hasn't even started.

    Again - DO NOT FIGHT THE TAPE WHILE IT IS HITTING NEW HIGHS. Keep your cool, and keep your powder dry.

    Note, that as yet the mines are not really joining in gold's rise. There is a reason - think why? Also, there have been no TV advertisements like a year ago wanting to buy our gold, not seen one. Yet a year ago there were two or three a day in the UK.

    Why didn't they spend millions on advertising to buy your silver? All these pointers are important. It should spell one thing if all else escapes you, and in a word - CAUTION!

    Go with the trend, but drag your stops behind you allowing for wild sometimes one hour swings. If you do get taken out for a slight loss, that is far better than getting wiped out. Though I am not anticipating a 'crash'.

    There are not enough mugs left in the markets operating 'en mass'. They are struggling just trying to survive the economy.

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  27. ray - was that a typo?! 16k for gold sounds great, but i think 1600 comes first :)

    i have noticed for 10+years that the historic ratio of gold:silver was in the 15-16 range, even 32, but never 100 like it was for so long now! i think 1600au/100ag might be a possibility, esp with ag's accelleration.

    not sure where the other metals fall in all this, and would enjoy a commentary from derek regarding pd, pt, rh, ...

    again, i respect derek's metal opinions, whether or not i happen to have the same conclusions. it is the method and logic that are most important.

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  28. Dean,

    I'm not buying silver and gold at these levels. Derek said that is going to $10 and $750.

    Dean, When can I buy at the levels Derek said according to his logical method? Or what happened to his $37.50 method?

    Been wrong in shorting TLT using his projections in this blog.

    One who never updates his blogs is lost.

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  29. Dean, that WAS a BIG typo. Thanks for spotting it. (Then, of course, it could have been a Freudian slip occasioned by his communicating spirit).

    However, I would stick to £1600 for a while - the other perhaps is a little further along the road.

    ReplyDelete
  30. ray -
    interesting, you meant british pounds, i always read your comments thinking you meant unitedstated dollars! yes, a very nice freudian slip (i think).

    i used to live in israel on/off for a while when i was in grad school...there the new shekel (already 3zeros removed) dropped every day v the us$. after about ayear, the merchants got tired of changing prices and finally posted in us$s (there was essentially no inflation against that). i think after another year of merchant defacto conversion to us$s, the government officially fixed everything in us$s. i think the economy stabilited overnight.

    the problem with the unitedstates (or other countries) doing the same but fixing in gold is that the major producing and holding countries are themselves a bit unpredictable and not necessarily trustworthy. thus, if south africa and/or russia decided to play with the unitedstates economy, they could manipulate the supply (even more than they do now!)

    my concept is that the united states had it right with using both gold and silver. silver has approximately five major producing countries, a much greater supply, and thus much more impervious to manipulations. perhaps a basket of many metals that is allowed to vary by government (NOT federal reserve) is an interesting concept [maybe i should research this statistically/economically and publish?!].

    just for example, fix $10,000 as exchangeable for 80g au, 1280g ag, 10g pt, and 40000g cu. then if any (or all) those metals were manipulated, the govt could remove, revise, add, much the same way the cpi is edited.

    some items to ponder...

    ReplyDelete
  31. Sorry Dean but my response to you was removed.
    But don'e wish to mislead anyone - it should have been $1600

    No more will I write here

    ReplyDelete
  32. if r n = ray newton, your first reply does appear! :)

    ReplyDelete
  33. Blain, I intend to plaster what a bigot, and lying toad you are, at every opportunity on the internet You INVITE comment and to let you know what we think, (top of your blog) but then delete them.

    You have hardly anyone posting except mostly yourself under the name 'Anonymous'.

    None of my posts offended anyone personally, not contained unseemly language.

    You are just a plain bigot and have shown your true colours.

    You have also mislead your few readers with your prognosis.

    I know you will delete this BUT IT IS MEANT FOR YOU.

    I repeat I will take every opportunity to spread the word

    ReplyDelete
  34. hi, ray - i was the one who posted that i thought your reply stayed, but was in a hurry so posted that one anonymously...although, i would like to see derek's replies and yours esp if deleted. i used to publish an investment newsletter in the 80s/90s, which was quite a production with monthly deadlines. i have not yet figured out if derek has a monthly post or not...i'm getting the feeling though that the answer is no. anyhow, i'll try to make sure i post with my website which has my contact info... dean

    ReplyDelete
  35. what is your website Dean, you didn't say?

    ReplyDelete
  36. hi, rn - i thought it was automatically linked to my name! it is twobluecats.com and twobluecats.be dean

    ReplyDelete
  37. Any other place to keep reading you guys? Why dont we just move to another forum?
    M.

    ReplyDelete
  38. rn - please send an email via my website, i am unsure if it is proper to put email addresses on someone elses commentary page! dean

    ReplyDelete
  39. Will do. I think I have found the right website.

    But which one of the two should I use?

    Until I do, please note silver is still in an uptrend, long term. And the fundamentals have not changed - yet! Yes, I know how it looks. If a 'trader' you can play the dips of volatilty. But few can make it as a short term trader. It looks easy, but..........

    ReplyDelete
  40. Ray, any comments after the commodities collapse?
    M.

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  41. "comments after the commodities collapse"

    There was NO warning from Derek. His blog is 2 months old and his predictions didn't happen at $37.50 level it happened at the $49 level.

    He left no comments how to move your money in the market. Do you really want to take Dereks advice when he not here telling you the numbers?

    Brought physical silver at $36 yesterday. NEVER EVER buy paper silver.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Anonymous 'M'
    What can I say that I have not already said. It is all there in my posts BEFORE this current 'correction', and though a biggish one, that is all it is at present.

    Let's face it, it was wide open for a correction.

    They look vicious when they happen, especially when they have been overdue because too many have been trying to anticipate them by shorting. People forget that shorting is only a delayed 'buy'. They HAVE to be bought back and returned to the owner.

    Unlike Gold, silver is the metal for the 'poor man' or two bit player. Mainly because he sees it as cheap, and easy to get into. So, the players are more nervous, and fiancially naive. They are easily panicked, in and out.

    This does not mean this correction could not turn into a change of trend, but it isn't there yet - it just looks that way to the naive.

    ETF's distort the true picture. They are a new form of 'bubble' maker because what is being traded is, no matter how they wish to portray it, the virtual real. In other words it does not really have to exist in solid form.

    People are just trading digital figures. They don't even have to print a certificate of ownership - silver or gold.

    I have not received one request, out of the many I do receive, wanting to buy my silver, scrap or otherwise. But they are always wanting my gold. Even today, I received a mailing shot.

    I do not think yet the show is over. Eventually, it will resume the trend - UP. And when it does it will have shaken out the very weak. So it will be stronger.
    Remember too, 'they' know where the stops are, and how many are on 'margin'.

    The profit to have been made out of Gold or Silver over the past twenty years is nowhere near the profit which has been made out of property held over the same period - well, not here in the uk.

    Most of the market today is being moved by traders - large ones, and small ones, and the market makers are playing with them. Silver has volitility so is ideal for traders.

    FORGET economic theory. Everything can be manipulated - and it is. But, manipulation shows up as a trend and we have to play (stay) 'within' the trend.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Hi Ray,

    Do you think enough correction for Gold?
    Enough correction for Silver?
    Still holds upside trend or could it flip?
    The show is over or their worldwide friends will keep it going?

    Thanks for you comments,
    M.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Trend (long term) still holds. Could it flip? - anything in the markets could 'flip'.

    You have to look at a long term trend chart to see how the current 'blip' appears - relatively to the rest. Also watch to see if it makes a new 'high',

    I believe it looks more like we will have a 'trading range' for a while with some wild swings within it - good for some quick profit.

    I do not, as yet, see another new high for a month or two (or three).

    There is a war raging at present between China and the US backed West. The US is trying every which way to bring China down.

    But, so far, China is able to block every move. No other nation has ever been able to do this - EVER. This is throwing the Americans (or those who really run the country).

    Do not listen to rhetoric or hand shaking.

    China wants NO war. It will avoid one at all costs because it does not need one to move ahead. Plus it also needs the world to move ahead - for EVERYONE's benefit.

    Nor does China want the responsibilty of dominating like first did Britain, and then its twin brother - the US.

    This is alien to western methodology and this is what is baffeling to us, and why we can't unseat China.

    This is what is affecting the markets, and will continue for some time - this cat and mouse game.

    So, better get used to it. Most analysts do not see this, this is why their prognosis is conflicting, and confused.

    You do not see this? That's OK, just ignore it and join the mass.

    OH! do not class gold and silver together, there are different forces involved in their movements. Gold is far more solid. Too deep to explain here,

    ReplyDelete
  45. Ray,

    Why is gold so solid? What do you think will happen when the dollar loses its status as the worlds reserve currency?

    Kyle

    ReplyDelete
  46. Sorry KK Derek has removed my answer to you. I have no time for such a small mind. I like maturity of expression and though

    ReplyDelete
  47. Ray,

    Are you writing on another blog?

    Kyle

    ReplyDelete
  48. I wish Derek would removed all of RN and Ray Newton's posts. Please Please remove his posts.

    ReplyDelete
  49. I thought RN or Ray Newton's or just Ray, promised to stop posting (March 29). Keep you word Ray, and depart. Remember you're busy making alot of money in this market.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Derek should let RN or Ray Newton take over! He at least posts every now and then instead of every two-three months. This post will probably never show up either...

    ReplyDelete
  51. I enjoy both Derek and Ray's comments. Whats with all the cry babies about Ray?? No one forces you to read his posts.

    ReplyDelete
  52. To the sycophant who keeps begging Ray for more information, and instructions on how to stay up on Ray's current thoughts, ask yourself why. Why are you so interested, that is if you are indeed someone who isn't Ray himself. There are a lot of fine investment blogs, even ones specifically about gold and silver. This particular blog, when Derek chooses to use it, is kinda niche. The likes of RN and his buddy S act like we visit this site to read his current take on the markets and politics. THis is not so, Ray simply uses the forum to release his pent up anxiety over having no other outlet inwhich he can dominate.

    ReplyDelete
  53. I realize no one is forcing me to read RN's posts. My point is that I think that Derek avoids posting more regulary, because he has to live with this guy running away with his own agenda. This could be a nice site if Derek would post more, and if RN would leave it might just happen.

    ReplyDelete
  54. It's Derek's blog, he can post whenever he wants to and keep anyone off if he wants.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Derek cannot keep up this blog if Ray leaves. Come on Ray, nobody write a dam interesting thing here.
    M.

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  56. Here's something to think about while you are waiting for something to happen. (that is if Derek doesn't delete it)

    You will get a better idea of where to put your money than most analysts (soothsayers) when you can think, intelligently, where you would put a billion dollars today if you had it.

    (the little guy today, even 'collectively', is not moving the 'trend' of this market, and not likely to for years to come.) You have a million dollars? You are still a 'little guy'.

    Within the past three years you could have doubled your money on the gold metal, or the ETF - GLD.

    You could have trebled your money on the Gold Mining ETF - GDX.

    This has been moved by 'serious money'in a slow steady climb. No hype, no stirring of the masses (housewives have been selling their gold trinkets). The trend up is still is strong.

    The world's economies are deteriorating daily - the US cannot (dare not) stop pumping money into the system, and its growing welfare recipients. The US cannot be allowed to crash.
    If it's citizens took to the steets they would be armed to the teeth. That WILL NOT be allowed to happen.

    UNLESS! wait for it UNLESS! They can collapse China, and get the Chinese on the streets first.
    Why? China can then be blamed, for one. And it cannot be permitted that another 'system' especially one still seen by Americans as 'communist' and undemocratic and therefore alien to what America has been preaching to the world for decades, has succeeded, where America's has failed.

    Economics and politics cannot be separated. We have to watch both closely, very closely. Never forget, the masses that are always needed to create so called 'bubbles' (and big crashes) are too busy trying to survive day to day, than be active in this market especially in costly gold.

    And finally -

    China's population today is greater than the total world population in 1800 that is when the Industrial Revolution was getting into full swing.

    Deeply think about that. China today has contained within its land area, a population greater than the whole world around a mere 200 hundred years ago.

    China is a whole world within itself as of when the world changed from an agricultural one to an Industrial/commercial one. And that change did not happen overnight, or without tremendous social problems.

    Do you need anyone to explain what that means??

    Now, where would YOU put that billion dollars?

    ReplyDelete
  57. Any new comments Ray?
    M.

    ReplyDelete
  58. This is a time for absolute caution. There is much going on behind the scenes which will be sprung upon us with little warning.

    Events are happening with will our world for ever.

    China is now being recognised as having a powerful influence upon how the world does business which is impacting economies and that means the markets.

    This is growing daily. China is being looked to far more than the US for direction.

    It is not about China becoming the new America, it is far more about the world finding a common level, a common denominator.

    This means old yardsticks are not reliable. We have to recognise the new, and that things are not going to play out quite like in the past. This is why so much prognosis by old time analysts is falling down.

    I do not blame Derek for his silence at present, though there may be other,personal, reasons known only to him.

    Here is one bit of news that I will let your imagination work out the impact.

    China is working with North Korea to set up a two tier economic zone like they did to kick off China - two systems working together, side by side.

    This would open up a large part of North Korea to western, and Chinese investment, and business. There are untapped resources in North Korea.

    Now that is only a small part of what is going on. The ME is changing, and Africa is opening up. And the world is being pushed together by fair means and foul.

    Watch how the market trend develops, watch (follow) the money. Watch the action not the rhetoric. Therein will lie the clues for the trend.
    Bon chance

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  59. Events are happening with will our world for ever.

    That should read 'which will change our world forever'

    Sorry about that

    ReplyDelete
  60. They reduced gold margins?? Are they letting it go up?
    Or just a mislead before they strike it down somehow?
    M.

    ReplyDelete
  61. EVERYTHING in the politico/economic world (especially) is inter-related, internationally.
    There is a goal, and that goal must be understood for anything to make sense. NOTHING must be viewed separately.

    Individually they may appear contradictory, and confusing - like one piece of a jigsaw puzzle. Only when put into place in the picture, do they make 'sense' (whether you/we agree with that 'sense' is another story. But WE are not the movers and shakers. We are passive.

    At present there are far too many 'events' going on, apart from the media hype presenting them as things are being brought to a head for
    some major seismic shift in world order.

    I can see much of it, but it would be too comfusing, and long drawn out to explain here.

    It is a time to 'keep your powder dry' and wait for things to develop and reveal more of their next major move. It is connected to 'brinkmanship'. I do not think we have too long to wait.

    Do not let media hype affect your judgment. It is hard at work to deflect your mind from what is really happening.

    Remember this. The axiom of the hierarchy of the International 'elite' brotherhood is 'Ordo ab Chao'. Which roughly means order out of chaos.
    So, in order to bring order, you must first create the chaos. And that is what is happening. Just take it as a stage of development in which the outcome is predetermined by those who are in control. ALL IS UNER CONTROL. In other words, take it in your stride and watch for the actual indications of where real big money is flowing. ALWAYS follow the money. The people who control it are the only ones who know the moves in advance.

    This was identified by Tacitus ('The Annals') 2000 years ago. Nothing has changed except the time.

    Once again 'Ordo ab chao'.

    ReplyDelete
  62. The best way I can answer your question more directly over what I have written above is -
    As for Gold nothing has significantly changed.
    It is still in an uptrend but with the accepted
    corrections on the way.

    The price is about right on the ball at present providing the oil cartel with their agreed price of one ounce of gold for 15.5 barrels of 'black gold' - with a little extra cushion at present to keep the key players 'in the fold'.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Ray,
    a lot of talk about china bubble about to implode. You buy it? or is this the chaos being created to provide order and solutions. I do believe they have overdone it with real estate. That and metals are the only things they can trust to hold value. I don't know if gold goes up or down with a china crash/correction. prob down temporarily and then up.

    Derek forget the metals if you dont have clear enough thoughts to ocmment on them. Where are you with TBT? Do we get to $85 on oil? I think we may be looking at a trend change for Reits. SRS appears to have bottomed. Real Estate in the US is doomed.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Anonymous
    Your questions to me are already answered in my previous posts.

    In your question to Derek. From what I have told you - where would gold be if oil was at $85? Could that happen? Quite easily even in its correction stage of upward trend.

    Real estate almost anywhere has had its day for a year or so, with very minor exceptions. Let's face it, we had a good run. And I know many Brits who made a lot of money in the bull run.

    When celebrities, very rich ones, are having to sell one (or two) of their homes, that should tell you something.

    Those who bought at the top, and are stuck, will be having a very hard time.

    And, if you think this year is bad - wait until next.

    In a way, the world is being slowly brought to its senses. But that does not mean there will be many, what may appear, senseless things done meanwhile.

    Take great care.

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  65. Sorry that should read - 'does not mean there will be no senseless things meanwhile'

    ReplyDelete
  66. What must sink in to our 'noodle boxes' is that what may appear 'senseless'as in incomprehensible to the masses, makes very good sense to the 'movers and shakers' who control our world via debt and money lending (International Banking Elite) (apply your own name if you don't like that one.

    If you do not figure out what it is all about in the final analysis, though it is as clear as
    a flashing neon sign in Times Square, how on earth can you expect to understand the steps on the way and make rational judgements.

    If you believe otherwise, no problem, at least not to me. Have fun

    ReplyDelete
  67. Long term plan? One world currency? Bipolar China/US world? Or multi-currency system with ups and downs to screw people without being noticed.
    No more countries/currencies and corporations taking over worldwide? Where does gold/silver stand in any of these scenarios?
    M.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Anon 'M' Gold and silver stands where everything stands. They are subject to the vagaries of the winds of economic change

    Do not try to preempt unless you have 'lucky' genes, or a penchant for financial masochism.

    (After thousands of years we have not perfected weather forecasting without error.)

    There is no subsitute for following the trend. No one has ever made money fighting, and going against it consistantly.

    Some so called 'contrarians' have occasionally hit the 'lucky' button and been right - it's the law of averages. But they are like the horse race punter, who only remembers and talks about that last good win to anyone who'll listen at the bar, buying his beer.

    Once again, the key lies, for we mortals, in perfecting the ability to OBSERVE the ACTUAL change of trend (pivotal point) WHEN IT OCCURS; let it confirm itself; then ride it.

    Of course it isn't easy. If it were, everyone would be doing it, then it would be self defeating.

    I am still learning, and developing that skill, I accept it will never end, but that is the fun. And the more I learn, and follow what I learn - the 'luckier' I get.

    Don't waste too much time trying to figure out why it changes, that takes your focus away.

    You don't really need to know anything about electricity to switch on an electric light, or power tool. All you need to know, for safety, is that touch a postive wire, and you will get a negative reaction, and you will never do it again.

    Many people who did not waste too much time trying to figure out why that is so, have made more money by using electricity - and going with the flow, than many a professional electrician.

    Not a perfect analogy, but the message is there.

    Have a great day all of you -friend and foe.

    ReplyDelete
  69. BE ALERT Times they are a changing. Or so my indicators are warning.

    The US just has to pull out of its nose dive, and it will. But whatever revival comes FORGET yesterday. That has gone forever. Like the UK, The US (owned by the same company)will have to adjust to a new role in the changing world. (and it will, it will be made to by its owners)

    It will not be dramatic overnight, for it was not in the UK. In fact many in the UK, and perhaps the UK itself is better for it, but then it hasn't stopped slipping yet.

    No one should need me, or anyone to explain the why's or wherfore's, if you do, you are beyond much help.

    What is important is that 'change' is a fact. Some countries will slip, some will climb. It is getting the world on a more level playing field, A rollered level one can't be, but a more level one can, and bringing it together in an easier to manage bundle.

    I firmly believe that the Euro and dollar will move nearer to parity, one way or another - one moving up, the other down. I believe that that was the original intention.

    Greece will NOT default because it is not in the interest of those who run our world, and control the literal, and metaphorical, printing presses for it to do so. It is not something the Greeks decide, or the rest of Europe, it is decided for them.

    If you want something to tangle with, as it will be hard in the beginning STOP and think 'NATIONAL' (Nationalism). Leave it for the sports field.

    When trying to figure the moves, think what is good for bringing the world together by fair means or foul. THAT IS THE KEY OBJECTIVE of the movers and shakers. So that is what will happen.

    No 'ifs and buts'. It does not matter whether we agree or not. 'It is written'.

    The news media is there to distort. That is their business, so don't let them deflect you with rhetoric. They are masters at it.

    When I wake up and turn on the news while having breakfast I say to myself - Now, what do they want me to believe today, and why!

    Figuring out the why, and how it fits in, is fun. ENJOY!

    ReplyDelete
  70. Sorry again ' That should read Stop thinking National (Nationalism)..........'

    ReplyDelete
  71. Thanks Ray, id say we are short term down for gold. Also Dodd-Frank rises many questions. Markets are forbidding metals derivatives, this could turn into a really world wide police state and forbid metals in a not apparent way.
    Any thoughts about this?
    M.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Gold and silver are still in uptrend. With world events reaching critical stage, expect many wild swings.

    It is really a trading market if you need to be in it.

    Not too much interested in anything that Wall Street administration says or does. I am only really concerned with what the actual market does.

    Why? Because the real money power knows everything long before we do, so its positions have already been taken. The implications of any 'news' will show up in market direction (TREND). And, if there is any TRUTH out there, that is where it will reveal itself.

    Deeply think about this, and you will see the light.

    Many people have ideas on what the trend will be, but I am only interested, primarily (that means where I put my money now) is in where the trend IS.

    ReplyDelete
  73. There is an island set equidistant from England, Wales, Ireland, and Scotland.

    It has almost no crime, no polution, no terrorism - real or threats. It is not part of the UK, and it is not in the EU but has a very benign trade relationship with the EU, and all nations.

    Oh! and it has very low (hardly worth mentioning) unemployment.

    There is no income tax on incomes under about
    %30,000 (£18,000).

    It was untouched by the Financial Crisis.

    And the house prices have not collapsed, but go up.

    This is where I am spending a few days.

    So, you see, there are still places of beauty and good living in this world. Never despair.

    The Islands name? Ellan Vannin in Gaelic, or 'The Isle of Man.'

    Cheers to all

    ReplyDelete
  74. That % should be $ (US dollars).

    Would love to hear Derek's views on the current market.

    Mine still hold. (as does the trend - so far)

    ReplyDelete
  75. I don't know if anyone is still viewing this site, but just in case some lone lost body is, may I say that it is my view not to see Gold and Silver together - especially in this new era.
    They are different animals.

    The fundamentals are nuch stronger for gold because it serves a different purpose. IT IS MONEY - REAL MONEY.

    It is at the very heart of our economic structure built over many, many, centuries.

    It is the most secretive of all trading. So take all your read with a pinch of salt.

    Just watch its performance. In that is the nearest thing to truth you will get to work from.

    It is tightly related to oil because the Arab oil cartel made it so by only selling their oil for gold - approx. 15.5 barrels to equal once ounce of gold. The dollars they get must average that over time.

    If the arabs ever lose the control of oil, or we find an alternative to oil, only then could this change - not likely in the near future.
    Sorry for any errors but in a rush.

    Of course, you do not have to accept my view.

    Keep smiling

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  76. Hi Ray, im still following you here as you dont post anywhere else.
    I believe silver still has potential for skyrocket, though not for the same reasons as gold, but still thinking in a long term.
    As for gold/oil there seem to have decoupled if one would look as near events and oil trends. Still i think gold holds its trend, in a decoupled world.
    Let me know your views.
    M.

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  77. Anon 'M'

    You are not really reading me, are you? Gold and Oil are NOT 'decoupling'. THEY CAN'T.

    There is an AGREED trading price that holds through hail, rain, and high water.

    I've told you what it is, and WHY?

    They may drift one way or another to adjust to cirmustances, but they ALWAYS, repeat ALWAYS average out to the benchmark.

    If you cannot get your head round this, by working it out for yourself. I should give up.

    It is the whole bedrock of the financial system, and has been for centuries.

    I cannot put it more simpler, nor keep on repeating it.

    Silver OK for trading. Totally different animal.

    I have not the time spare to give to posting on forums. I do it when I cn here and there.

    I'm a trader.

    ReplyDelete
  78. hi, ray. just stopping by when i read your 15.5...as you know, i am a statistician, and, if my memory serves me, i arrived at that exact number through statistical analysis a couple years ago...i'll look up my analysis, and verify :) dean

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  79. Hi Dean,

    It is not a number I made up. I first read it in a little known book 'The Coming Profit in Gold' pubished in 1974. by Charles Curley, of Connecticut. He was an associate director of the National Committee to Legalize Gold. This was just before the legalization took effect, which did not happen until December 31st 1974

    I verified the relationship by accessing a chart recently which showed the actual trading over a long period and how it averaged out over time.

    It is NEVER discussed, or mentioned, by leading analysts on line. It is just something the powers do not want highlighting.

    I was offerred the opportunity to publish my 'thoughts' on line via a leading analyst, but they wanted to slant my views in a way that would distort the picture (as they do). I would not oblige.

    The whole system is corrupt - and I mean 'the whole' (politics as well). Perhaps Derek knows it, so finds it hard to write. If so, I can understand.

    The freedom, so far, on the internet is bringing so much to light. Watch this Murdoch 'trial'. His media control is very powerful. The revelations still to come will send more than ripples through the markets.

    Don't want to say too much here. All take care - September is not far away.

    Markets always run up, before they come down.

    There is NO WAY the US can go on propping up its lifestyle on 'borrowed' money amounting to trillions without it being obvious to even the deaf, dumb,and blind, that Academian economics
    is a farce (which I have known for years).

    It will take 'draconian measures' to even start to check the situation. What would follow
    would unravel, and call into severe question, all that the US has been used to sell to the world for years.

    As long as China sticks to following its Confucian principles, as in being guided by them, China should hold. China has much up its sleeve to counteract economic manipulations to unseat her. The world is beginning to believe that, perhaps, there is another way. Once this is evident.....huge changes will happen.

    ReplyDelete
  80. hi, ray -
    always interesting to read. one problem in the united states is that the corruption is almost total in politics and media. the media actually thinks we should believe that the world news shut down due to the cellphone scandal! ...and, unfortunately, it seems most are buying into that...

    the united states deficits are no where near as serious as they are made to sound. as a practical matter, the annual deficit is about half of the following year revenue. that is, the united states is around six months behind. however, due to the fed, in my opinion, they _look_ bad with all those zeros from currency devaluations!

    the problem domestically politically is that, in reality, the republican corporate puppets want a redistribution of wealth - from the poor to the wealthy! just look at 8 years of bush/republican congress (essentially, as republicans DO filibuster)...two wars ($2t), tax cuts ($1t), and the start of the bailout era. the military-industrial complex, however, got even richer! plus the oil companies.

    did you know what percent of petrol was imported by the united states when nixon / oil embargo occurred? 10% !! the unitedstates could have told open what to do with their oil! however, the profit (at the expense of the non-wealthy in the united states) was too good to pass up, so, we increased imports...a little socialism would have gone a long way!
    dean

    ReplyDelete
  81. Dean, like almost everyone, you are wasting time and energy on tiny parts, small incidents, in the vast picture.

    No nation, whether the US, UK, all the EU nations, China, Russia et al, is in a position to make its own decisions. They act and read from the prepared script.

    The EU will become a large economic power-block
    Federation. All this current financial upheaval
    is just part of the enforced shift.

    But even when that is achieved it is still only a part of the whole. TOTAL WORLD UNION is the ultimate goal. WHY? Because then it will be easier for the force which administers now, to control.

    How do I know? We have been TOLD and SHOWN.No ifs and buts.

    If you focus on all these small details and accompanying hype, you will be up and down like a yo-yo, and wasting time and energy.

    Watch where the money is flowing. The trend will tell you ALL you need to know if you are observant.

    Extremely powerfull hands are holding the strings from which all the world's puppets prance around the stage. When you see that picture in your head, you are on the way to 'enlightenment' - not there, but on the way.

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  82. Tread carefully,
    The event in Norway is another small part of the whole. Observe how many times you hear the word 'democracy'- inferring this event is one motivated by an evil intent to destroy 'democracy'. It is, in fact, just the opposite.

    The young guy responsible wants his day in court to 'tell his story' of WHY!.

    They will try every which way to stop him, but it may be impossible to do that because it is Norway (too much to explain).

    Much has been going on under the surface in that small, normally reasonable law abiding, well educated, and easy to run affluent (from oil) country.

    Many, even in the US, are begining to see that this version of 'democracy' is not synonymous with freedom. Except freedom of the few to take from the many - even their freedom.

    Democracy, like the gun, is only as good as the one controlling it.

    Changes, that is BIG changes, are going to have to come. These will affect the markets in a big way. While the 'Elite Financiers' will always win in the end, they are going to have to modify their ways to do it. That, or there will be more, and bigger, 'events' like we have been seeing.

    They HAVE to sort out the Middle East. Democracy has to provide, at least, a more transparent win/win situation, which China is doing without US style democracy (where, so far, it is absent).

    Take great care, watch the trend, and when you invest your time and money, make sure you stick with it.

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  83. I learn a lot by asking myself questions, then thinking hard, and digging for a logical answer.

    Here is a question for you. Why do you think the mines, particularly the Juniors, are shaping so badly, though the gold price is reaching new highs?

    Get the answer right and it will tell you much about this market.

    Go on exercise that brain while you are waiting for something to happen.

    You don't have to commit your answer here if you are ashamed to acknowledge you still surf here. Just answer it to yourself.

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  84. Usually the mine stock prices lead and the price of the metal follows suit later on. We should see a pull back after they raise the debt ceiling here in the US. I just come to this post to read Rays thoughts. You should have your own blog! Thanks!

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  85. Thanks Kiley. Own blog? I cannot afford the time commitment. I would feel obliged to respond to
    all feedback, and to maintain a reasonable update. Otherwise it is not fair to those you attract.

    I make most of my comments direct to analysts, and respond to their responses which they do if your comments are valid, or strike a nerve.

    Many, I find, share my viewpoints but are restricted for many reasons to express them - often they have a brief, and/or an editor.

    As for prognosis following 'news' (no such thing as 'news' really, at least not to us)

    This is where one has to understand the overall
    picture and how any 'event' will fit in to that picture in a way that will serve 'them' best.

    The HUGE difference today from the past is that
    we live in a virtual real world, quite openly, but so few the masses see it applies outside the movie world.

    To type in digital trillions of anything is the easiest thing in the world -and it costs nothing. So far they have only to do it in a way that avoids the 'dumb asses' from figuring it out that in no way can 'trillions upon trillions of dollars just could not exist in reality - they could never be fed into the system. AND THEY CONTROL THE SYSTEM.

    Just remember this. It is NOT about money. Money, those at the top don't need.It is about the power to control, and preserve thei power to do that. They favour nations, and people, who are in the best position to help them bring
    their goal to fruition.

    All militaries are there to serve them first. When the British navy ruled the waves, it did so to protect their interets around the world. The so called British Empire was part of THEIR empire, just as is now, the US Empire.

    The US military, and Nato, serves them. And so it will go on - Those who can serve them best will be their main tool until the job is complete.

    The markets interact accordingly. Until one sees this, an understanding is impossible.

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  86. Incidentally Kiley, the gold 'indicator' is only partly valid. Today it is about the huge volumes of money, especially digital, that can move into markets, and also ETF's which really need no underlying commodity, especially that which cannot be checked and counted.

    The mining section is far too small to accommodate. Plus, the price is not showing up as profits to the mines - money would chase profits, real or potential. So that alone tells you something ain't right. Just exactly what, I am not fully certain - yet.

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  87. As the words from that old song 'The Darktown Poker Club' goes - 'This game is not being played according to Mr H-Hoyle, it is being played according to ............(append your own euphemism)

    What I am saying is forget being guided by Academia’s brand of economics – or any ‘school’ they cover in their curriculum.

    What recent events, if not before, should have taught you is that this game is being run by those who dictate their own rules. Why? Because they can. And they have a purpose.

    They run the markets like a ‘shell game’. We lose if we try to apply economic logic - because our logic is not their logic.

    The US has done nothing except indicate they are prepared to do something to help correct the situation in 2016. 2016? And for this they add a few more trillion to their debt courtesy of their owner/creditors.

    It is not for America’s benefit, it is much more far reaching. The US, like the UK only bigger is just a very useful tool which they are used to and so far performs as required.

    So, until then, they carry on their own sweet way, and the world has to accept it. No, not because they are frightened of the US per se. But they know the power of those who control our world with money power and debt.

    All the people in power in all the countries know the score and work, either reluctantly or not, it doesn’t matter, for them. And that is only what matters.

    Those who don’t, get removed one way or another.

    There is not ONE person (on the ‘outside’) who could have said ten years ago that gold could have reached this price and still have the mines just keeping their head above the water.

    We are learning why ETF’s were introduced, and that the only meaningful reality to be considered in the equation, is a virtual one.

    All we can do is - Follow the money to get the best, and safest return.

    Unless it is a personal problem that keeps Derek inactive here, then I can understand his reluctance to get involved in prognosis. What is going on, politically, socially, and economically, 'stinks' worse than a skip full of half dead skunks.

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  88. Forgot to add that TLT which Derek referred to is on the move up. It could have some way yet to go, but not for real economic fundamentals'

    There is a 75% short position in this stock - I repeat 75%. That is a helluva lot of squeeze.

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  89. Gold trading at $400 above 15.5 ratio versus oil? Which one is wrong, or for how long if this recession stays and send oil downward?
    M

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  90. Anon Two points here. I mentioned it can deviate for a period for a number of reasons, and it has done in the past, but it always adjusts to bring it to average.

    However, especially as the mines have not moved with the price, it could be signalling a gold price correction coming.

    Actually, allowing for inflation, the gold price
    has not yet reached its past high in the 79/80
    which even then was attained by short squeezing.

    My belief is that we are still in a gold uptrend but with a correction on the horizon.

    They are not going to make it easy for the real gold players. GOLD IS THE MOST SECRETIVE OF ALL MARKETS.

    Do you believe the UK sold off its gold at a knock down price? You do? Why? Because you were led to believe that. It would not be 'the most secretive' if such information was in the public domain.

    Don't believe ANY so called wheeling and dealing
    'news' on gold by. or about, anyone. AND I MEAN
    ANYONE!. All we know for certain is the price you can buy it at, and the price you can sell it at.

    Little things I mentioned at thwe beginning are
    mere pointers that when they don't correlate sound a warning.

    What is trying to be engineered is a 'depression'. This they are hoping will bring China down by internal unrest. At the moment it is the West, and ME, which is suffering. (Collateral damage to 'them') It is China they are after.

    'THEY' are very ruthless people and so far have never lost. BE CAREFUL! I am OUT of this market. I just make a few quick trades - fast in, fast out.

    C'est la vie, Bon chance!

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  91. Achtung! There is just one other possibility to be considered. With the 'engineered' 'Arab Spring'
    (these names media dream up for us over emotional suckers) it could be possible that they have the Arabs 'over a barrel' (pun intended) and have done a deal with them to change their quota, or to permit a deviation for some length.

    Remember, a lot of the sheikdoms are highly nervous it could come to them any day.

    NEVER! underestimate those with the most gold who rule all others. They pull the strings that the rest of the world dances by.

    As Shakespeare told us - 'All the world's a Stage'.
    And Disreali told us 'This world is governed by far different personages than can be imagined by those not on the inside'. And Disraeli was one to know in his day, he was the most powerful man in the world.

    Watch how Germany keeps her nose clean, and holds Europe together. Who runs
    Germany totally? Not the Germans that is for sure. If it were left to the Germans they would cut loose from anyone else. They don't have a say in the matter and haven't since 1945.

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  92. RN calls market bottom!! Thanks :-)

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  93. RN calls market bottom? He does? I guess you flunked comprehension in your halcyon days.

    Never mind, there in always night school, or adult learning available I'm sure.

    But if you want to take it as bottom, don't let anyone hold you back.

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  94. So if gold is trading 400$ higher than what it should, and no agreement with arabs for a new ratio, then cash is king for now. If you were to put a billon dollars somewhere where else than gold would that be?

    Rumours about germany pushing EU countries to sell gold. Specially Italy the highest per capita gold holder, and spain and portugal following. This might not sound like a new agreement for the ratio, but a good way to convince population that central banks should sell gold at high.

    JPM and GS calling gold at 2500 by year end. What else to support a correction call?
    RN please keep updating during these times!!

    M

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  95. I did not say gold was $400 higher than it should. I believe you have assumed this because of the current gold/oil ratio.
    Gold WILL go much higher for some time yet - BUT WITH CORRECTIONS that can appear severe if you have bought near the high.
    Rumours, rumours, news, news, all meant to confuse - not we minnows, we don't count, but BIG money.
    We are in a virtual world, with virtual markets, and virtual money. 'THEY' hold all the cards. So 'THEY' call the shots. They know immediately where money is flowing. They know what big deals are being made behind the scenes.
    I have figured out what is going on, and where we are being taken, what I do not know, and neither does anyone else 'NOT ON THE INSIDE'.
    The world world is in debt turmoil. This was planned, and executed.

    All we can do is watch the money. It is not the time for long term 'investment' unless you are very young and prepared to wait.
    If I had a billion dollars to put somewhere?
    How did I acquire it? That would give me a starter clue as to where I would put it.

    Watch what Germany is doing. Those who claim Germany persecuted them, are the ones who really brought its downfall.

    After WW2 Germany became their most popular place to move to. They now totally control Germany. When they do that its fortunes will rise. They do not back dead horses.

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  96. My new rule of thumb for trading in these markets is do the opposite of what I think is going to happen or should happen!

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  97. But maybe that 'opposite' you think is opposite,
    is really what you think is going to happen?

    I do understand what you are meaning, but as a psychologist I know that the mind can play funny tricks on you.

    Take care, we are in very, very, troubled times where huge changes are taking place.

    Technology is taking over, it can think faster than the human mind, and process thought faster than our minds can even comprehend.

    History has no precedence to this, and it is advancing by the second.

    Only those who are in a position to create cause
    and effect, and have the media under their control to programme the mass what to think (sometimes in a covert way) hold the trump cards.

    Even what may appear a 'natural cause' can be man made today, and that is improving as I type this.

    This is the way it is, we have to get used to it. All we can do is find ways to follow the money flow as best we can. Then go-with-the-flow. It has to show up eventually. Watch both long term past charts, as well as current, such as six months, ones. It gives you a much better perspective.

    I'm in a rush as I am on vacation this week - again.

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  98. It is the best of times, and the worst of times,so wrote Charles Dickens in the Tale of Two Cities (Re French Revolution).

    It could be said of today, and perhaps almost everyday. But some times do stand out more than others - especially times of great change.

    Keep positive, there are lots of opportunity for making money in this market. But there are no 'easy fixes'.

    London riots?? It was all 'fixed'. They had to do it in order to get the British people to accept tougher measures that will be need, and not just in the UK, most countries, as the 'squeeze' bites.

    But the UK has the OLympics coming up soon where we could have real problems if security was not tightened beyond what Brits will accept
    normally.

    Cameras we don't mind - guns we do.
    Most of our police are still unarmed. Even unarmed policewomen can keep law and order here under normal conditions. The trouble is easily ignited by 'outside sources' by enlisting the ring leaders.

    London is a VERY BIG city. But note, the trouble is never in the 'Financial Area', or the wealthy areas.

    Many 'failing' businesses (shops) take advantage by torching their own places for the insurance. I guess this has happened in the US also.

    Keep positive, and keep with the trend.

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  99. I cannot see anything yet that will change the demand for cold. However I can see a correction coming up soon, and there will be many gyrations, that is the nature of the beast in these times.

    Europe is being moved tighter together. The 'chaos' is provided to push them into a more integrated 'federal Union of States' with Germany the unofficial or adopted leader.

    The Germans are natural born leaders, and are highly disciplined. Plus they are backed to the hilt by the Elite who occupy that nation in large numbers in influential positions and businesses they retook after WW2.

    The Germans will execute orders from those who really rule unwaveringly, and efficiently.

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  100. OO-OOPS that should have been GOLD not cold.

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  101. You have Been calling for a correction for a week on Aug 11. Aug 11 was the bottom in gold. Retailers are leaving both silver and gold in droves because of high margins. Only the commericals will remain and not of a profit by shorting the metals since nobody to buy.

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  102. Anon Your post is ambiguous. I have NEVER 'CALLED' a correction. That is if you understand the usage of the word 'called' in this context.

    And in my August 11th comments, I don't even use the word.

    Even a 'high probability' does not mean 'called'. It means - take care as it has all the potential to happen.

    I have also continually stressed that we are still in a gold uptrend.

    You must learn to comprehend and not let your emotions get in the way of truth.

    PLEASE NOTE:
    There are, and always have been, buyers for gold.

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  103. RN: "Gold WILL go much higher for some time yet - BUT WITH CORRECTIONS that can appear severe if you have bought near the high." Aug 11


    RN: "However I can see a correction coming up soon, and there will be many gyrations, that is the nature of the beast in these times." Aug 16

    When will this correction occur? Not when you said.

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  104. FIRST: I suggest you learn to read dates. None of that is in my August 11th post.

    SECOND: If anyone could foretell the actual date of any market move they would be a multi billionaire, or if they made it available to the mass it would be self defeating. Think about it - if you can think.

    Stop grasping at straws to beat the market and understand when absolute caution is needed where risk is out of proportion to gain.

    The point I have made is that even though a correction could occur, at any time, because the conditions are there, it would be unnerving
    if you had just bought; but because gold is still in an uptrend, it would eventually regain the price you paid.

    If that is not good enough for you - too bad.

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  105. Anonymous are you for real or a plain nutcase?
    I have learned much from Ray about the market and politics that govern it. As he says, gold will remain in an uptrend for some time yet even though corrections come and go. That's all I need to understand to be confident with my purchases, and holdings.

    Tim (Canada)

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  106. At present, Gold is being well and truly 'hyped' here in the UK - on the news, and other programs. Stands are appearing in shopping malls purely to buy your gold.

    This does not mean that the 'hype' is without substance and purely to push up the price.

    Silver is resisting, but is being dragged up to some extent along with gold, but soon falls at the first opportunity.

    The mines which created huge profits in the 70/80's, especially the juniors and even 'holes in the ground' as the bubble grew are lack lustre at present and will even move down as gold moves up.

    Then we have the disparity in the gold/oil price ratio. However, a short time ago there was a disparity the other way in favour of the oil cartel so it could be evening it out.

    All these are pointers that something is not quite right and that great caution is needed.

    If gold continues up without some signs of positive movement in the mining sector - it will begin to smell like bad fish.

    I mean, if the mines can't make a profit with gold at these prices, how will they survive if it falls. And where is the money going?

    Just be alert as the opportunity of a lifetime could be just around the corner. All will be revealed sometime between now and mid October. This is not long in the scheme of things.

    Nothing in life is certain except death, but there are high probabilities and insurance companies make their profits out of understanding probabilities.

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  107. The is not being followed thru no middle-class Joe has the money to buy gold in the West. Especially when margin warnings are talked about. The retail investors gets hurts when they increase margins.

    Nobody wants to buy gold mining stocks now when almost all stocks go down in this market. The retail investor does not know what a GOLD STOCK is because their broker never told them to invest in gold.

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  108. From a technical standpoint, I would have to agree with Ray. Looking at the charts for gold, RSI is in the overbought range and the volume did not peak with it. That's a pretty good indicator of a correction on the horizon...of course I can't call the date either or I would be a billionaire.. If history serves as any guage I would GUESS between two and six weeks time. Getting some GLD October puts now.

    Trey in CO

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  109. Trey in CO If you bought those puts when you said, and bought them not too far out of the money (something I would never advise) they should be now 'in the money'.

    Gold, however, is still in a powerfully strong uptrend as I believe it is still suffering from years of manipulation where the price was held down.

    What supports this belief is the lack lustre mines. If the current gold price was gold's true value, or potential, it would be reflecting this in mining profits, and share prices. I can find no other explanation.

    I would advise those interested to start looking deeply into what mines they feel have the best potential if the gold price continues
    to rise.

    Reason: The gold mines could turn out to be one of the most underrated speculative, and investment areas in the very near future.

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  110. Hi Ray, I did buy GLD puts for Q3 for 174 at $3 per option. Total investment was 5K. At the time GLD was trading around 184. It closed yesterday @ 171 so I cashed out for $8 per option. Not bad for two days.

    I agree gold is in a very powerful uptrend so when I buy puts, I usually only hold them for a short time and only buy them when prices move too high too fast.

    I also agree about the mining sector. I'm an options guy so I like the GDX for my investment strategy.

    I have heard rumblings about some of the junior mining companies having high potential...and are extremely undervalued now for what they already pull out of the mines. Of course you know not to listen to the hype but the ones that are already undervalued for what they are producing, could be a gold mine in itself.

    Have a good trading day!

    Trey in CO

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  111. Good on you, Trey, as our Ozzy friends say.

    I try not to highlight any particular stock, but I use this as an example for a point to be made.

    First, let me say, I am no mathematician, I get by with a struggle at times when quick calculations are required, so here,I am sure some of you have the edge. Where am I possibly going wrong in this mathematical analysis?

    Surely it cannot be for real.

    ".....Denver, Colorado-based Vista Gold Corp. (NYSE Amex and TSX: VGZ) is an international gold mining company that has over 17 million ounces of measured and indicated gold resources in a portfolio of six global projects......."

    Let me put some doubt (error) in here and say that they are out by 50% and there are only 8.5 million ounces of measured gold resource. 8.5 million X current gold price $1,800 an ounce = 15.3 billion dollars. Lets say the gold price halves overnight to $900 an ounce. That makes it just over $7 billion dollars.

    Yet the market cap of this mine is currently only $223 million ( 71 million shares @ 3.29ps)
    This just does not make sense. I am sure I would find similar aberrations if I checked some other producing mines.

    There are many young Russians and Chinese today where $223 million is pocket money. And look what it could return (not that they really need a return the way they accumulate it, and spend it (the Russians) on wild drinking sprees in Europe -so we read.

    I feel sure I have miscalculated somewhere, or missed something that someone will point out to me, just go easy in the cynicism, I did admit I am no mathematician, but I am trying to see this world as a bright and beautiful place with lots of great, golden, opportunities still to come.

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  112. I don't think you are that far off. Someone else might be able to chime in on this better, but from what I understand, measured and indicated are two different forms of amounts of gold in the ground. I also may be wrong (so don't take my word) but if I remember correctly, measured is what they know to be there for sure, indicated is what they are guessing is there via sonographs, geological surveys and such...not guaranteed to be there. The big variable with measured and indicated is the cost to get it out of the mine. Fuel costs among other things change rapidly so mining costs are never as stable as other industry's production costs. I've seen some junior miners and (larger ones as well) that looked great on paper but the cost to retrieve the gold ate up most of the profits, hence the stock did not rise as anticipated. I do believe the analysis is correct. They are undervalued by the volume available. The question is, how efficient is it for them to pull it out.

    One could make a killing in mining stocks if they had the time to fully research some of them. Not take someone else's word for it, but actually doing all the research on their own. We all know balance sheets can be, and are manipulated. The time it would take is not worth it to me personally, I guess that's what makes the gold miners vector (GDX) and junior gold miners (GDXJ) more appealing to me.

    Trey in CO

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  113. I fully understand the differences in measured, and indicated, and you are correct in your defining.

    Yes, the cost of extraction can vary.sometimes considerably. Oil is one of the greatest component costs. As for 'the accounting', well this is not just a symptom of mines. But as someone said once - a gold mine is a hole in the ground surrounded by liars.

    However, today it is getting dodgy for companies, 'pinkies' excepted, to take too much license with impunity.

    It was, allowing for all these possibilities,along with the others to which I referred, that this mine still seems grossly undervalued and waiting for the attention that should be forthcoming.

    Incidentally, VGZ is a component of GDX, so I read. Once people start moving into mines, assuming this will happen as before, then anything with the name gold starts to move - especially low entry cost items.

    With so few shares available, it doesn't take much action to move them.

    Cost per share alone should not be important, it is percentage return we should look to. But people don't like to buy in odd lots. They like to own thousands. This can pay when you get speculative fever among the masses

    They should be treated like options that don't expire - at least at current prices.

    Yes, I have traded GDX; and GDXJ, and other ETF's for the same reason. You don't have to worry about the fortunes (or misfortunes) of a single mine.

    Happy trading

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  114. Agreed...and, if in the future, you add to the speculation even the slightest hint of governments banning gold ownership again (like the 30's here in the US) mining stocks will be the only available legal option for so called gold ownership. I am not a conspiracy theorists but history tends to repeat itself in one form or another and it has happened before in times of great change.

    Trey in CO

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  115. "...I am not a conspiracy theorists but history tends to repeat itself in one form or another and it has happened before in times of great change....."

    Trey, it is difficult for me to comprehend anyone who refers to 'history' and yet shies from not seeing 'conspiracy' at every phase along the way. History is one long chain of them. They leap at as everywhere along the line. (except that perhaps expert media conditioning, today, has made people nervous of such tags as though they are akin to some mental disorder. That, I can understand).

    The adage that 'history repeats itself' comes from the fact that events, and actions, effected by predetermined causes, which have proved themselves successful in moving the 'herd' in the direction that will result in a predetermined, desired effect from a cause, will be used again, and again. (and why not?)

    This stems from a thorough understanding of psychology. While, singularly, human behaviour can be unpredictable, when acting as a mass, then herd behaviour kicks in and is highly predictable.

    History should never be viewed as we have been taught - by singular events. One must take a gestalt view - all is interrelated. One long chain of cause and effect, and all of it stage managed by experts who do understand human behaviour which they learned at their mother's knee, so to speak. As Shakespeare, identified - '..All the world's a stage..'

    Failing to understand this, is a root cause of why so many fail in 'the markets' - and, often, even in life. It is also the root cause why we have permitted the conditions to happen, such vitally important conditions, as - the world's mass media of today, in all its genre, in tight hands and speaking virtually with one voice on major issues, and all the major international financial institutions as one giant Financial Elite that rules governments and their economies, and thereby rules us.

    And that is but to name two. Most of you will not see this, and on that point alone - I rest my case.

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  116. Some may think that the observations I make, such as the previous one, are a cause for despair, and/or a form of defeatism. Far from it.
    It just stops one from wasting valuable time and energy trying to fit logic into something that is illogic, and can NEVER behave logically except to those who control the cause and effect, and their timing.

    Logic is the preserve of maths and physics whose theories are laws when proven by empirical examination. There are NO laws in economics, only theories.

    The markets, and economies, are governed by human behaviour, which is fickle, and can be manipulated - even the herd can be driven in a particular direction.

    So let us conserve our energies, avoid time wasting and use the cause and effect that certain others create for their benefit.

    The best way to cross a turbulent fast flowing or tidal river is to go with the flow. Avoid trying to change that which we can't change, and use it to our benefit.

    As Tey mentioned, today we have ETF's, which can avoid our analysing different companies, and provide a more condensed picture of that group. They are a closer guide to trend. They are used by big traders because they tend to be
    highly liquid.

    The current volatility is excellent for options
    once you learn how to use them.

    There is great opportunity today with on line brokers, and much less commissions than existed some years ago.

    Treat this like a business, watch, and learn all you can. Sometimes it may be the hard way, but learn from it. Then you can have fun, and increase your net worth at the same time.

    Happy trading

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  117. Want to participate in smacking down the criminal global banking cartel? Here’s how to do it. Sell the likely fraudulent SLV and GLD ETFs, cease participating in the fraudulent gold/silver futures markets, buy physical gold and silver, and buy gold/silver mining stocks. The good news is (1) This is a simple strategy; and (2) Buy wisely, and you will likely build significant wealth while participating in this strategy.


    The fraudulent immoral monetary system that bankers have imposed upon the world that steals money from savers and creditors and transfers wealth to governments, debtors and bankers can only be perpetuated by the price control mechanisms bankers have instituted for gold and silver. Destroy these price control mechanisms and the fiat currency system will fail. And what happens if the fiat currency system fails? We all have a chance to institute an honest and equitable monetary system that promotes price stability and sustainable growth instead of struggling under a dishonest one that destroys these desirable socio-economic qualities.



    The ability of bankers to suppress the price of gold and silver (yes, even the price of $1,800 gold and $40 silver is severely suppressed) is based upon their ability to sell the perception that a much greater supply of silver and gold exists than actually does. Over the past six years, I have publicly blogged dozens of times regarding the mechanisms bankers use to accomplish the suppression of gold and silver prices,


    Ever since introducing the GLD and SLV, bankers have successfully been able to steer money away from fundamentally solid gold and silver stocks into these likely fraudulent ETFs.

    If just some of the $66 billion currently invested in the GLD and just some of the $12.6 billion currently invested in the SLV was liquidated and re-invested back into gold and silver stocks, bankers would lose much of their ability to manipulate gold/silver stocks. From now until the end of the year, I believe that gold/silver stocks are likely to significantly outperform the GLD and SLV. Thus, redirecting money out of the GLD and SLV and into stalwart gold and silver stocks is not only a moral decision, but likely a very smart investment decision as well.

    http://www.theundergroundinvestor.com/2011/08/want-to-smack-down-the-criminal-global-banking-cartel-here%E2%80%99s-how-to-use-gold-silver-to-do-it/

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  118. Ray, could you explain in simple words how to use options with GDX? Did you refer to Interactive Brokers earlier?
    M.

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  119. Anon 'M' You use them in just the same way as any other stock that has options. That is the simple explanation.

    Are you really asking how do you use options?

    If you are green on options it is too much for me to go into here. But there are many explanations on the internet. And start with 'dry runs' once you pick up how they work. And for some time, only buy in one contract. But, I can't stress enough the importance of study, and watch them, first.

    Have I used that term 'interactive' broker? If so, it must have been an error as I am not sure what you mean. All brokers are in a sense interactive. How else can they do business?

    However, there is an online brokerage called 'Interactive Brokers' and I do see that they will teach you about options. (Don't know anything about them)

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  120. The 'other anonymous' Re smashing the banking cartel. It has existed for centuries, all governments function either directly, or indirectly, as their servants.

    They control all the international media that
    counts. When you control the media, you control that which fills all the dumb asses minds with what to think, and how to act.

    They totally control the world gold market, the currency markets, and the stock markets - lets leave it there, don't want to go into overkill.

    They won the world through the most powerful devasting weapon of all - DEBT!

    So how are you going to bring about what you suggest, and many others have suggested in one form or another?

    Believe me, I know just how you feel. But all it will do is burn up your energy,higher your blood pressure, and waste your time, and we have all little enough as it is.

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  121. Owning the GLD and SLV is Not the Same as Owning Physical Gold and Physical Silver

    In the end, as long as the GLD and SLV prospectuses are allowed to contain misinformation if it so desires according to the words contained within their own prospectuses, then GLD and SLV shareholders may find themselves holding nothing but a bag of hot air just like Selwyn Silverblatt. Furthermore, as long as the issues I broached in this article remain unresolved I imagine that the debate will continue onward about the legitimacy of the GLD and SLV ETFs. Undoubtedly, given the opinions I presented in this article, I would be highly curious to see the outcome and effect upon gold and silver prices were every shareholder of the GLD and SLV to exchange their shares for physical gold and physical silver instead.

    There will always be vast amounts of paper gold and paper silver available to be sold, but only a limited amount of physical gold and physical silver. Perhaps this is why the real thing is becoming increasingly difficult to come by these days. Yesterday, the US Mint once again reported that it has temporarily suspended minting of nearly all its gold uncirculated and proof coins and nearly all of its silver uncirculated coins due to very limited availability of blanks. As the saying goes, with gold and silver, “Get it while you can!” Just ensure that the gold and silver you buy clanks, not floats, when you drop it.

    http://www.theundergroundinvestor.com/2009/07/the-gld-and-slv-legitimate-investment-vehicles-or-not/

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  122. I would assume that anyone seriously interested in the gold market, certainly those with big money,understand the relationship of the ETF's to gold bullion.

    They also know who controls the market. They also know it is the most secretive of all markets along with many other attributes of this market most people don't know, or think they can ignore.

    And those people, who control it all, as it is the fulcrum upon which everything else is balanced, as I explained, are part of a network that has grown and existed for many centuries.

    That is, long before, such trivialities in the greater scheme of things as ETF's were even thought of. And it is they who introduced all derivatives, and even the market's themselves.

    So, I ask again, how do you think you are going to unwind it all without something sending us back to the stoneage and barter when we can start again?

    And, if we ever did experience that improbability (impossibility) you could be well assured that within no time it would end up more or less the same.

    But, you, and all, are entitled to your view. Our individual views won't change a thing.

    We can fight a system, or use it to our advantage, that is our choice.

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  123. Stocks and Oil decoupled respect to gold, sounds really weird. Though i believe it should go up in long term.
    Another middle east war should send it up or down? Whats the written script?
    M.

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  124. As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts the variation advantage was on the oil cartel's side at that time, so this could be a balancing of the books.

    But none of the Arab states are in a position now to resist whatever terms are put to them. There have been tremendous changes taking place, with more to come. It is not all about Libya. It is the messages that have been sent to all nations that do not have democracy, and that includes China.

    The powers that control our world are not interested in democracy because it is best for the people. It is because it is best for those who control.

    'Democratic' nations are a pushover. I could explain why, but it would take too long, and I don't want to get into that. Actually, you should be able to see why.

    This is especially true of those nations which have never experienced it. Giving them so called 'freedom' is like giving whisky to the Indians.

    So they will experience chaos for a long time, which makes them easy to manipulate, and present only an internal problem within their own nation as the factions fight among themselves, and the opportunity to have any leadership that is installed becomes one favourable to Western doctrine.

    This will be the situation now for a long time. We will move from one seeming crisis to another as the world is moved slowly, but surely, into one world government.

    To a point, this government exists now, but semi covertly.

    And, some nations are still resisting the moves to change. So, it will not be completed in our time.

    As for the markets, there will be continued turbulence, some very severe, but there will be
    trends that will present themselves by their patterns. They will be almost impossible to predict, except by chance, BEFORE they happen - I mean the timing of them. It will be made that way.

    For example, I could stake all I had on there being another serious attempt to destabilise China from within, it is in process now, I know the Chinese government are aware. But when it will happen? I have no idea. Neither has China.

    I am sure there will be a similar attempt on Iran, but timing? It could be any time.

    That is our world, and we have to live with it.

    I still believe the long term trend for gold is up for some years yet, but there will be many corrections on the way that can appear the end when they happen.

    I feel sure a move in the gold mining sector is on the cards, so they need to be watched closely. The move could be quite significant if, and when, it happens. I have mine earmarked, have you?

    Some mines could be holding back their production so not revealing their true profitability. Why sell it at current prices if they feel it is going much higher?

    Some of the big producers are sitting on a lot of cash. They are all playing a waiting game.

    But NEVER forget, the gold market is a VERY SMALL MARKET by comparison.

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  125. Some may wonder why the so named 'Arab Spring' was made to happen now. I believe this is the reason.

    China was beginning to influence all those nations that were not in the 'Western Democracy' camp. It was proving itself a successful power, just as the US system was crumbling.

    Left any longer it could have formed a powerful block to the 'Financial Elite' in their move to create their One World on the American way. They had to isolate these nations from China's influence before making another attempt on China. China can only be beaten by causing serious unrest from within.

    And this is now where the moves will come, once the Middle East is toppled further.

    There are some very troubling times ahead, which will ensure that gold remains popular.

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  126. Keep posting new stuff!

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  127. There is very little more I can say that I have not already said. It was suggested to me once that I produce a newsletter, and/or a website.

    One of the reasons why I have not is that they are expected to be maintained - especially, subscribed, as in 'paid for', newsletters.

    This means one is pressured to say something 'new' when there is nothing 'new' to say. This can lead to writing drivel, repeating oneself, or in wild guessing about something eye catching and dramatic.

    The most useful of those options is 'repeating' onself, but is not the one that sells the newsletter, or blog.

    I have re-read nearly all my posts just here and all are still valid, and will continue to be so for quite some time. This is because it is only the understanding of these political/economic inlfluences, that they are all related, and all stem from the same source of those who control the cause and effect, that we can engage in the markets with some degree of success.

    It all depends on how much we have really absorbed them, and not fooled ourselves into believing we have. (and that is easily done).

    I will always try to provide an answer to a related question.

    I believe, sincerely, we have seen the end of wars as we have known them. Conflicts there will be, but no wars Chaos there will be, because it is only through the creating of chaos that the 'New Order' will be brought about - as it is being, inch by inch, minute by minute.

    Like terminal cancer, it is irreversable (even more so. So do not look for change of governments, or politcal leader, to make any difference to major change. Any perceived change at the time is but an illusion built in to ease the passage of the 'New World Order'. There is nothing really 'new' about it, except the 'new stage' of its development.

    You have been deceived all your lives, just as were your ancestors. In history as taught, no matter which country you belong, the only grain of truth lies in, at the most, the actual event. But it is in the most important 'reason why' wherein lies the deception.

    Think on these things as events unfold. The American Indian, as I believe other similar early tribes did, had to rely on instinct, and senses to put their essence of survival into their ability to detect minute signs in their 'tracking' ability.

    All movement leaves a trail, and it is on this that that Newton based his physics of 'Laws of Motion.'
    The nearest we have in the markets is TREND.

    Do not let rhetoric deceive you, as it has, and will.

    Watch and learn. Is there inflation, or deflation? Watch the prices YOU pay for the essentials to life. Only they will tell you, not some comment on, or in, the media.

    'Ordo ab Chao'. To bring order out of chaos, you must first create the chaos. The key ingredient for a good plot in a novel is 'conflict'. Conflict grabs attention. Conflict is the bedfellow of chaos.

    Expect it to continue, and for the rest of your life. Because the 'One World' will not be fully completed in your time. Only the understanding eases the pain, and anxiety. So GET THE UNDERSTANDING!

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  128. Incidentally, I should have qualified my comments on inflation. Inflation, as viewed by the masses, is where prices have increased greater than their income to keep pace.

    I often refer to cause and effect, but it is not so much the effect directly related to the cause of something, but the 'affect' of the effect that results.

    Let me explain simply. If prices rise but your income passes, or keeps pace, you won't squeal, and come out on the street to protest.

    This is why the US has the QE 2's and 3's and how many necessary. There are rising prices and
    it cannot permit riots on the streets of its nation (especially when so many are armed) when it is trying to convince the world that the American way, is the way it has to go.

    The US is hoping the Chinese will not be able to keep pace with America's ability to inflate,
    and spread the inflation throughout the world, without the squeels, and riots, at home.

    The American people's problems will be really, well and truly felt, when all competition has been subdued by those who control and use the US as their battering ram.

    Will the American people ever see this? In any number to change things, not a chance.

    Just as an effect of a cause iteself becomes another 'effects' cause. So does inflation, and deflation act on each other, and create a depression.

    Inflation removes the spending power of the mass,which will mean less business eventually for even China's cheap goods. The depression stifles growth and liquidity.

    This then causes inflation, and depression in China and the squeels and unrest will start unless China finds ways, or uses its present wealth to pour money into the system reducing its financial clout.

    It's a case of who will collapse first - a bit like the 'cold war' with Russia. But China is in a far better position, psychologically and financially.

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  129. hi! i figured i'd take a look to see any updates, which i see from ray :) i came to an interesting insight last week, that communist china is equally dependent upon the united states - but the media and analysts ignore this. the product produced in china - ipods, ipads, cellphone, and the like - are being purchased by the united states and commissioned by companies in the united states. if that manufacturing switches to the united states (trivial to build such industrial facilities), communist china is left with ZERO sales! a wave of nationalism combined with the desire to generate jobs in the united states (possible) could cause this to occur. the united states would not need to find buyers for those treasuries, as the tax base would soar from the additional domestic jobs from construction of the facilities (and maintained from the manufacturer itself). corporate profits would be unchanged as the companies only markup, anyway. sales would stay constant because the workers at the factories now could afford to purchase the products even at the higher level (they cannot now because they are unemployed...)

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  130. Between now, and around mid November we are going
    to see some dramatic changes - TAKE CARE!

    That is all I can say, or want to say, for the present.

    Just do not let so called 'revalations' or explanations of events on the media influence you.

    Better to regard them ALL as pure fabrications with intent to deceive. Keep an open mind and WATCH what happens.

    This will NOT be easy, they are professionals at convincing you that black is white, when they want to.

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  131. Might be a good idea to take a loan and go brick and mortar in SouthAmerica? I hear suggestions...
    M.

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  132. Some say inflation, and some say deflation so which is it? Answer: BOTH! Certainly at present.

    First let me qualify my meaning, one which pertains to most of us who struggle, within varying degrees, to 'survive' in the economic jungle.

    By inflation I mean rising prices in most necessities, and deflation - a fall in prices in many not so necessary goods.

    Incomes for most will be squeezed, especially fixed incomes, like pensions.

    We (the mass) will be squeezed, inch by inch so that we feel the pain in small, easy to handle doses. It will only stop when there is evidence the mass cannot (won't) take anymore.

    In other words, they will test the breaking point.

    The division of society will be between those already in a position of great wealth, or in a position to greatly increase their wealth beyond where the imposed economic constraints enable them to be immune, and those of the mass who will be in a constant struggle to adjust their lifestyle within the tightening constraints.

    Flatline in the markets, as in life support systems means death, so expect probable volatility without clear direction for some time. Unless of course, some world shattering event is sprung upon us. Anything is possible.

    Trends have varying life spans, of either UP; DOWN; or flat. I deliberately put 'flat' in lower case as this is the shortest of the three and is hardly noticeable. The reason is obvious - the vast financial industry is built on trading at varying prices (buy and sell). No trading - the market(eers) die.

    For the majority of us it will be 'depression' but not a repeat of the '30's. Unless you are at the very bottom of the pile (Skid Row) you will be living with more amenities than the richest men in the world, Kings, and Emperors had a couple of hundred years ago. They didn't even have a simple match, and their only light - an oil lamp or candle, and no flush toilet.....

    So, be like Pollyanna and - be GLAD!

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  133. Well if depresion is on for most of us then housing is in a downtrend, even in South America. We need an alternative to gold as a less safe heaven or tangible. Any ideas?
    M.

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  134. For centuries the world has been a very unbalanced place and we have become used to seeing life from this perspective.

    Unbalanced in many ways, but let us focus on economic issues because they determine most of the others - like social conditions.

    What we are experiencing now, and this will continue, is an evening out of this imbalance. Simply put - those areas that were down will be moving up, and those that were up, moving down. All this will be gradual, but it will be a trend. The world is being moved into a more manageable whole.

    However, there is a paradox. Within nations (areas) there will be a widening gap beween those with great wealth, and the rest. This means a weakening of the middle classes in nations where this 'buffer zone' was strong.

    Population is rising dramatically - soon will be 7 billion. China has a population equal to the whole world at the time of the Industrial Revolution - a whole world within one nation.

    Our minds are conditioned to focus on parts, especially the ones that we feel closer to - like our own nation, our own state. As an investor, in particular, we must shake this off and see the whole. Those who control our world do, and have always done. That's why they became so powerful, and now own it via their powerful weapon of DEBT!.

    This balancing out is going to affect areas in different ways, some up, some down.

    Growth will continue, and new technology will breed new technology. Innovation, will come from even small nations some of us hardly knew existed - like say Croatia.

    Chinese technology is going to impact our world, dramatically in the future. People do not realise the brain training all Chinese have to go through just to learn to read, and write. Each character has to be memorised as to stroke direction and meaning, and, in speech, the four distinct tones.

    The US will survive, but not live a lifestyle at so many other nations’ expense.

    China has sowed the seeds of win/win being the harmonious way to do business. Gun boat diplomacy is dead. We are seeing where 'the Anglo/American Way', which formed 'the Western Way' leads. It is short sighted, and causes imbalance, and consequently severe discontent.

    But it served a purpose, it brought (is bringing) about the chaos from which a more benign order can come.

    All big companies, today, are international and span the globe. So, to them, the process will be swings and roundabouts, and they can move, and focus, at the drop of a hat.

    Europe will emerge stronger from the 'induced' chaos. It is the blueprint for merging other areas which may appear as competing blocks for some time. Competition is needed as it builds strength and innovation. But ALWAYS view it merely as the process on the way to 'One World, One Dream'. Which will not fully mature until well beyond our time.

    Now, starting thinking yourself, and watching closely world developments, and see if you can spot where the opportunities will come.

    I will drop one or two of my 'ideas' in from time to time.

    ETF's are great for giving you insight into how whole sectors are faring (trending). They also allow you to invest in currencies, and nation’s economies, yet remain within the stock market.

    Here is one to watch, and start you off 'TUR'.
    Check it out. Find to what it relates, and why do I feel it a possible contender for future growth?

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  135. Ray, the show has started? Any thoughts?
    M.

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  136. Nothing has 'started'. It is all on-going. All parts of the whole.

    As yet, no trend in gold has been broken. As I mentioned earlier, corrections always seem scary when they happen - especially if they catch you on the wrong foot. Gold could still fall further yet remain within the uptrend.

    Silver will remain in the same trend as gold but be more volatile. Because of its lower entry price, and, as I have always viewed it, poor man's gold, it is traded more by the masses. Yes, it can have greater percentage gains (and losses)but, silver is far easier substituted in use than gold, and it can be easier faked. Lots of it being sold is not Stirling silver. Lots of coins are fake.

    I will only trade the Silver ETF up, or down, when I feel the pointers are in my favour - and then, quick in, quick out.

    Here is one sentence you should imprint on your mind - THERE IS NO CRISIS!

    You hear that word over and over again because that is what they want you to see.

    Those who have not figured out what the ultimate goal is (final solution) and who is behind it, and why, will ALWAYS see CRISIS. And those who suffer will see CRISIS. And, I guess to them, it is.

    The word CRISIS stops one from seeing clearly and calmly and making objective decisions.

    All is going well to a grand plan. Whether you see, or agree, or don't agree if you do see, with that grand plan, is totally irrelevant to what will happen. The power taking us there is overwhelming and it pervades all the dark recesses of our world which it owns and controls through DEBT!. Got it DEBT!

    Their motto, or one of them is - ORDO AB CHAO

    Out of chaos they will bring THEIR order to the world. On every dollar bill, and the great US seal is - Novus Ordo Seclorum, which simply means New World Order.

    This needs some explanation, as over the centuries since the birth of the US, people, generally have become more educated, and enlightened.

    In the 18th century few people could read and write their own language, never mind Latin. Translations are always open to interpretation, even today.

    There has been a lot of confusion spread, on the internet in particular, to stop people seeing the significance of signs and mottoes that could link them to the masons or a branch thereof 'illuminati'. And those are just two of the secret orders to which so many of the world’s leaders belong, and are controlled by their allegiance.

    Don't worry about it all. Tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes exist, we can't stop them, but we don't go constantly worrying about them.

    Just know that whatever happens in geo/politics, economies, and 'the markets' it is all cause and effect to bring the world, eventually, into one more integrated, manageable entity.

    It is ONE WORLD, ONE DREAM. For better or for worse, whether you like it or not, so shall it be.
    Plan accordingly.

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  137. I agree with your views Ray, but particularly I meant the show of making us believe things, specially with gold. Last week everything went down, all currencies like CAD, EUR, gold, oil, silver. Nothing could keep against the dollar.

    I agree gold can correct even more, but some currencies should keep up at least, right? I dont see any correction if gold/oil ratio keeps the same and the currency you use to buy gold moves together with gold.

    Actually, gold/oil ratio still tells gold is overvalued by some 400$, also i see electric cars more and more, seems scary to keep following oil...
    M.

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  138. The 'show' of making us believe things (black is white) never stops, it is on going.

    We are in a period of extreme high volatility. For one, it is that time of the year, also great change is taking place.

    Only traders with the knowledge and guts should be dipping into the market in this period.

    I have explained the gold/oil ratio it can drift for some time in periods like this, but it will adjust when it is ready. You need to get hold of a long term chart that will show you how it averages, but also how it can drift.

    These things are only guides that tell you how this world is managed.

    You have riots all over the ME, what do you expect. Those at the top who can manipulate the market sieze on these opportunities. They can make fortunes in the wild swings. GET WISE!

    Electric cars, along with hybrids for a while, you are going to see more of. That old dirty gas guzzler has had its day.

    More and more supply stations will open up. The batteries will improve - probably they will just swap the battery at the station. They will also be recharged while you drive by sola power. All this and more besides is on its way.

    As more are sold they will become cheaper and it will feed on itself.

    Many companies are sitting on stacks of cash, they are waiting for the buying opportunities.

    China is going to impact our world more and more, and they are making us change our ways.

    There is change taking place on a par with the Industrial Revolution. Problem is, the Industrial Revolution required more labour. This revolution requires less. And the population is growing and people living longer.

    Watch which companies, and sectors are bucking the trend. Watch for when IPO's start coming to the market. They are a sign of growth, and business optimism. China is bringing a lot, and listing them in Germany.


    Watch for when companies start snapping up others. The ETF's are great for monitoring sectors.

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  139. Crisis! Panic! Indecision! These are what provides opportunities for 'Them', but the they also provide the opportunities for YOU!. Don't fight 'em, join 'em.

    Cool hand Luke.

    Here is something to keep you occupied while all this volatlity is going on and you are waiting to see where things are going (because you haven't yet figured it out).

    Start picking out one or two gold junior producers (not just holes in the ground) that you will feel happy with in a turn around.

    When gold makes its next big run, it will be a good one and these juniors will bring the greatest rewards. Watch GDXJ that is their ETF, so it indicates what the group as a whole is doing.

    These have still to have their day. It may start when the main market appears to be falling. Timing is the most difficult thing to get right, but if you get in the trend, it does not matter too much, it will pay off even if you wrong foot a little.

    Nothing is for sure, but it is a good 'bet' that these shares COULD move in the not too distant future. BE PREPARED! Watch, and WAIT!

    Gold is still in an uptrend, though it may fall further. Don't fight the trend.

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  140. Thought this snippet from a Brit paper today may be of interest to you silver bugs. What is especially interesting is the difference between the 1941 value, and the present value of the silver.

    Odyssey Marine Exploration said it had confirmed the identity and location of the shipwreck site, nearly 4,700 metres below the surface of the North Atlantic, about 300 miles off the coast of Ireland in international waters.

    The company said in a statement: "Contemporary research and official documents indicate that the ship was carrying £600,000 (1941 value) or seven million total ounces of silver, including over three million ounces of private silver bullion insured by the UK government, which would make it the largest known precious metal cargo ever recovered from the sea."

    (you will find more details, I'm sure on line)

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  141. Oh, I missed off today's value - The SS Gairsoppa was carrying seven million ounces of silver, worth £132 million at today's prices.

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  142. Hope that nom de plume didn't confuse you, it was an error. C'est moi 'RN'

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  143. Ray, GDXJ lost 12 dollars since sep6, how low would you suspect it can go either on an extra market crash or gold correction?
    M.

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  144. There is still opportunity for the bears to push gold down further yet, and for it still to remain in an 'uptrend'. Nothing has really changed 'positively' in world economics. It is hard to think they could get any worse, so what can really move gold up?

    All that I can think is that gold should already be higher, but it is being controlled. Gold has always been controlled, but normally it requires little effort to do this because, compared to today, the main economies have been more stable.

    What we will see is that the easing will continue to be steady, with corrections when it appears to get out of hand, and to keep people nervous about 'jumping in'.

    The mines are totally dependent on what gold does.

    It has been a well known accepted fact that the mines usually lead the gold price -up, or down.

    There has been far too much disparity between Gold, and the mining sector. This has caused a sense that something was wrong, like, either gold was overvalued, or the mines undervalued. This could not really continue.

    What causes me concern is that though the mines have dragged their feet, and even fallen before the gold price, even if the mines fell to half their current value they would still not show much yield - I mean the big ones that have any yield.

    Really what gives a company its value is its profits. Investors want to see a return on capital. Capital gains on share price cannot go on for ever. There has to be a continuing return on the money invested (dividend). Or, a potential buy out at a profit.

    The large investors get in very early when the prices are very low (years ago), so when we see a current yield of 2%appx (NEM Newmont) that is on a share price of $61.

    But this share could have been bought at around $15 around ten years ago. So, these people are sitting on a capital gain of $46 a share and will be drawing about 8% interest on their original investment. Are they worried about a little fall? They have passed through many a crisis in ten years.

    These Juniors (GDX) are not going to perform unless gold is going considerbaly higher, or perceived, convincingly, it is.

    If gold is not going much higher, then one should not really be in this market, it is as simple as that.

    I see great possibilies for these juniors, because I feel gold has still a way to go up. But I am wary (cautious).

    There could be ''tricks' going on deep behind the scenes that will affect many areas dramatically. Everything is only parts of a whole. The whole is bringing the world together
    in a more manageable entity.

    It will be controlled by the Elite Financiers who already control the flow of money, in all its varieties. (Where do you think all this QE money is coming from in the US and Europe?)

    I am convinced that soon the US will(be made to) abandon the paper dollar - completely. Nothing in itself, but psychologically it can be signalling something else.

    Even the gold oil ratio which the Arabs used since certainly the 1970's may be changed. The Arab nations are in turmoil, they do not have the power at the table they once had.

    The world HAS TO pull out out of this demise, and it will. But it will be a far different one than we have been used to. China is no military threat (unless she was seriously threatened, not just with words). But Chinese ideology on how business should be done is.

    The Chinese way, and the American way, cannot peacefully co-exist for too long. War cannot be contemplated so change in one has to happen.
    This could only be pressured by conditions within crumbling. Which will it be? May take some years yet, but it will happen.

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  145. Ray, what do you think about currencies? CAD and EUR taking a hit for 2 weeks. Also, are they on same boat?
    M.

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  146. Also, Ray i just want to tell you i really appreciate your comments on every subject. I only hope one day we move to an open blog not controlled by a single person.
    M.

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  147. Ray no new comments?

    ReplyDelete
  148. It will not let me post. sorry. This may not even post or will be removed

    ReplyDelete
  149. he removes my response. He has a very small mind

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  150. Sorry Anonymous But it stops me from posting a response. Then when I try various ways, it gets removed. Then sometimes comes back, then disappears again. So I feel bad because you probably think it is me.

    I can't play these silly childish games

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  151. what a lost.. Ray can you tell us another website we can read your posts?

    ReplyDelete
  152. Derek,

    How about an update on what youre thinking about these days? We appear to be headed into some dicey times. Hopefully big opportunities for trades. just a quick blurb on oil, silver, bonds, currencies or whatever you see a potential trade on would be helpful.

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  153. All my past comments hold good. No trend has changed significantly.

    However, there is so much volatility within the trend that it is great for traders who know their business, but a big 'keep out' sign otherwise.

    There are times for just watching and waiting, and that time is now.

    The one thing that gives me concern with gold is WHY have the mines not been at the party? Why are not the big miners with plenty of cash not been snapping up the junior producers if gold is going to rise as so many predict?

    Until I see some answers, I will exercise great caution as it does not make sense. And, as Judge Judy often repeated - 'If it doesn't make sense, then something is not right.'

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  154. There are a number of reasons, today, why gold could continue to trend up without much affect on the mines. I tried to think of a simple way to explain the reasons but found it cannot be done 'simply', so I won't.

    However, though it can happen, technically, it is made difficult by the need to maintain 'market forces' credibility to discerning market participants.

    One 'hint' is that in this age of virtual reality where 'live' actors especially crowd scenes, can be replaced by 'virtual real' ones, there is no end to the supply.

    Remember, only a small percentage og gold 'traded' is ever required to be delivered. (End of hint).

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  155. Hi Enlightened1, I agree a small percentage of gold is required, but with futures margins hiking that percentage should be higher. In any case it has been like that since before golds rally or margins hikes.

    So something is wrong with mines, i agree, or something is wrong with gold. In that case do you prefer to go long with mines than with gold?
    If so, would you play GDX or GDXJ if you expect dividends?

    Thanks,
    M.

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  156. I have expressed sufficient doubt, not fear - DOUBT!

    When in doubt - STAY OUT!

    It is an experienced TRADER'S Market at present.

    Some of the greatest market speculators say, there is a time to be in. and a time to be out. To me it is the latter at present, unless you are holding stock that show a good profit, and are returning a dividend, then hold them.

    Bail out if the market starts making lower lows, and lower highs.

    At present it is on hold waiting for some direction.

    I would not expect a crash, not with an election coming up.

    Keep your eye on China but don't listen to American rhetoric.

    Patience mon ami

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  157. IRAN saw the importance of GOLD

    TEHRAN(BullionStreet) : Iran reiterated its claims that the country has enough gold reserves and needs no more imports for the next ten years or so.

    According to Central Bank of Iran it has changed 15 percent of its foreign exchange reserves into gold The bank had earlier said the value of gold has surged many folds as it bought gold at a price of $656 per ounce.

    Analysts said to prevent a freeze of its foreign reserves Iran withdrew its deposits from foreign banks and allocated $13 billion of that reserves to buying gold and now that value of that gold has tripled.

    Iran has imported 22 tons of gold worth over $855 million to boost its foreign exchange reserves estimayed at $100 billion.

    That GOLD is so far helping to save Iran's neck.

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  158. MUST ADD

    My 'gut feeling' is - unless you already have that gold, bought at a good price, then - CASH IS KING for now.

    Just a deep gut feeling, I am following (with an odd quick in, quick out trade when the pointers are right)

    Just to illustrate how picking the right gold mine can pay literally DIVIDENDS.

    Look up the 10 year chart for Royal Gold (RGLD)

    You could have bought this at $10 in 2002 it is now over $80, so with the amount of shares you could have bought with $1000 they would be worth $8000 today and you would be drawing a .54% on your $8000 (plus the dividends you would have drawn other years.)

    (think I've done my maths right, it wasn't my best subject)

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  159. Let me guess Ray N or RN has changed his sign-on as enlightened. Very clever.

    Derek please, please start posting again. And please cut out wind bag comments.

    There are people who stop by just to see if you are back, I'll continue to check back. But I won't be reading these annoying experts blather on and on.

    Thank you Derek.

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  160. Yes Derek, please come back to nurse this immature, financially naive, 'Anonymous' back to ill- wealth. He obviously hasn't lost enough from following your last offering, he's getting withdrawal symptoms.

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  161. Enlightened, do you think GDX and GDXJ are at good prices for buy and hold?
    M.

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  162. CASH IS KING (for now)

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  163. Ha! An expert who gives free advice on a blog that hasn't been updated in almost a year.

    You are not naive my friend, it's enlightened who is immature. Giving advice and feeling like a tall man.

    Let me tell you mr. tiny pants, start your own blog it's not hard to do. It's free! And I'm sure that will fit into your price range.

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  164. I am certainly not a small man at 6'3" (Care to meet me outside)

    I live, and travel the world on my trading. Just point out one piece of my advice that if followed would put people wrong? Just one.

    I do not want to get bogged down with my own blog,
    or website. (You see, I practice what I preach and make money) this requires committment to update, and respond, and to whom - most of you are unappreciative, dumb, or naive to discern good information. You are far too brainwashed (and don't know it which is worse) by mainstream media.

    Also, I know something you obviously do not. 'When you share, you care'. If you help others, it comes back a thousand fold. If they reject your help, that is THEIR problem.

    OK smarty-pants. One can only wonder why it bothers you so? No one is twisting your arm to read what I write, or what anyone writes. Just check for Derek's return or pass on.

    Of course, if you have some good prognosis on the market that will disprove mine, or anyone's then post it. Who knows, if it is good, and proves better than mine, I am not too proud, or big, to follow it.

    CASH IS KING (for now)

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  165. Any comments on the current correction?
    M

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  166. Yes, it's a correction. Let it play itself out.

    All par for the course. You can make a small purchase in GDXJ if you wish, it will recover. Next time these juniors should be OK, even if you have to wait a little. But NOTHING guaranteed in life, except death and taxes.

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  167. Thanks Ray for keep posting.
    M.

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  168. Here is something to think about over the holidays
    and while the market is marking time.

    North Korea is rich in untapped wealth. Three nations are inching in trying trying to get an edge - China, Russia, and USA.

    Korea lacks the mining expertise so for the present it just lies there.

    But the political changes should start to emerge towards the close of next year.

    If the two Koreas united, think what a nation that would make. This would give the US the edge
    as they are well entrenched in the south.

    Could be some fun and games going on there. Don't think war, none will want to go down that road.

    There is plenty to keep the markets, and the PM's volatile for some time. US elections, Olympics in UK, Iran, the EU.

    Will be a great traders market. Selling covered call Options on any stock you hold should prove profitable as the volatility will keep prices high.

    Lots to think about, but forget stability. So much is coming to a head.

    Have a Merry Christmas. I will be cruising down the Nile in January.

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  169. You may wonder, how could the two Koreas unite.

    I think it will likely be more on the style of the Chinese - two economic zones to begin with. But even this will take time. China did it, and Germany did it, so don't rule it out.

    The natural wealth is the prize.

    Harness that to the manufacturing base of South Korea............. WOW! I believe that Japan's economy would be hit hard. But that is way down the road at present.

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  170. If I believed that history always repeated itself, I would also be stupid enough to try and corner the market in stones.

    However, I am not against market 'clichés' entirely.

    I believe the trend is my friend, and trends, by definition are not one night stands. Once the trend has shown itself to confirm my reasoning, only then will I commit my hard earned cash.

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  171. I am very pleased with the thought and don’t feel like adding anything in it. Thanks.
    critical illness cover quote

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  172. There are only two segments of people in our world - The few Banking/Financial Elite, and the rest - even if you are a billionaire, you are one of the rest.

    If you do not quite get that, sorry, but you should.

    WATCH THE BANKS. Forget rhetoric WATCH THE BANKS.

    Nothing really moves without money.

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  173. Ray, any news from your side? i hear on my last trip to NY people expect another crisis in february. Real Estate again dropping.
    Do you think we are at the brink of a bear on gold and silver like mister soros? i read there are some limits on the downside just waiting.
    Any of your views would be helpful...
    M.

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  174. Crisis? What crisis? Crisis is merely a point of view.

    There is a well planned change (shift) going on that will move our world closer together economically and basically, politically.

    It has been created by, and under the direct control of the World's financiers via their network of control built over centuries. WHY? Because it will be easier to manage.

    We have to understand, watch, and adapt. The trends will light the way.

    Gold is still the only 'money' of the Elite, and is likely to remain so.

    China did not emerge from nowhere to become the world's largest gold producer by chance.

    But 'to da moon' scenario, I doubt.

    The US`will have to look good in election year, so they will do what they are excellent at - cook the books.

    It is only a vast growing welfare in the US that has stopped full blown riots in the streets. UNDERSTAND THAT WELL.

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  175. Any trend after todays FOMC?

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  176. Trends do not show from 'news' emanating from individual events ( which in any case are not 'news' to the people that make decisions)

    Trends develop from actual 'money flow' and action, not rhetoric (BS). And these relate to the ultimate goal (agenda).

    Presidents and politicians are chosen by those who really rule according to how they serve 'THEM' not the masses, and how well they can deliver, and bamboozle the masses with their rhetoric.

    The world will only change, at least a little better, if, and when, the mass realize this ( upon which I have long since ceased to expect - ever)

    A trend is not a trend unless it develops and continues for some time. If it is short - it's only a 'fad' (in fashion), or a 'correction' in the markets.

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  177. I should not need to add this comment. The Gold market is still in its long uptrend and likely to remain so for some time yet.

    Israel (or those behind it) will not rest until they have got someone to knock out the last bastion of resistance of its dominance in the ME.

    If no one else will do it, they will start it.

    The politicians need a diversion of some kind.

    If the US could pull off a quick decisive blow without losses, that would be a winner for Obama.

    But will need more than a trumped up 'navy seal'
    drama.

    Oil will probably react strongly, at least for a day or so, and gold accordingly.

    So there will be lots of volatility - not for the easily shaken. It can be scary when it happens, and you have wrong footed it. Tread carefully.



    Not a time to be short.

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  178. Everything is costed in money except money. The cost of money is the interest rate. NOTE WELL!

    Did you see how the markets reacted UP to the Fed comment that interest rates will be kept low?

    So, imagine how it will react when interest rates are increased. But 'serious money' will have already taken position because they will know well before hand it's going to happen.

    'We make war by deception'(Mossad) can also be applied to the markets.

    Nothing has to actually happen, they only need say it will.

    Market rhetoric is 99.9% DECEPTION! Only a 'trend,' once established, lights the way.

    It's a war game, LEARN THE RULES!

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  179. No new thoughts? Ray are you there?

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  180. This is one of those awkward, patience testing, times.
    Most major trends are in place, but it has slowed down for a breather.

    All one can do, or should do, is wait for something to trigger the move that will 'light the way'.

    It's a time for patience, and observation, as you build your reserves.

    Incidentally it is almost exactly one year since we heard from Derek. Strange? Will he update on the anniversary? Could it just coincide with the market
    move? Watch this space.

    Just to close, bear this thought. There are too many who have a vested interest in an active market. They are ones who draw their living from it. A stagnant low volume market affects their pocket. Rest assured they will find someway to fire things up before their need to tighten their belts causes pain.

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  181. There are basics to life's economics that never change, upon this I will not argue, but as a complete guide to engaging with it upon this I will.

    The bedrock of 'needs' is still - clothing, food, and shelter. But to ignore the immense changes that have introduced new, perceived 'needs' puts your thinking on a level with early man.

    There are basics to war that never change - conflict between opposing sides, death and destruction,but ignoring the immense changes again puts your thinking on a level with early man. Try fighting a modern war with that view.

    It is the same with the financial markets and economics. Ignore the changes, and unless you have great nerve and the financial resources, you could endanger your general health and wealth waiting to be proved right.

    Yet, this is what so many analysts would lead us to do.

    MORAL: OBSERVE CHANGE (which is ongoing) and act accordingly.

    There are, today, immense changes taking place in rapid succession, and many about to be changes. There are causes that will produce great effects, and each new effect, becomes another cause 'ad infinitum'.

    The effects (and affects) of these changes are what we need upon which to focus our attention. Try and envisage them by all means (it can be fun) but wait until they start to reveal themselves with their tell tale 'trend lines' before backing them with your hard earned money. You will have time to reap the rewards.

    Change rarely happens to completion dramatically overnight, especially in the markets - how many years did the 1930's bear market take? How many the 1990's 'bull'?

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  182. The above statement is seen to be contradictory. The situation is very critical and need an experience complainer to resolve it.
    debt management

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  183. Amazing isn't it? (Not really) They focus us on Greece, and Iran, the dollar, the Euro and everywhere to stop us using an open mind, and applying our own reason, and observation.

    Did we not know it is election year and they would have planned for the US to, at least, look good and give us that wonderful 'feel good factor'.

    Remember and Observe,, even manipulation must leave a trail (trend line).

    While everyone was focusing on here there and everywhere, eyes were taken away from 'home' and those whipping boy stocks that took a drubbing in more ways than one - housing and financial sectors.
    Lots of boardroom changes to provide excuses for some upward mobility..

    You wanted to make make money? You could have just about doubled your money in three weeks - yes THREE WEEKS, once again THREE WEEKS! with Fannie May, and Freddie Mac and on high volumes to move in and out quick.

    We are going to see more of this I feel over the next few months. The crunch will come later, no doubt. But you have to sail with the tides, or, from farming country - 'make hay while the sun shines'.

    We live in a growing era of where very little has lasting quality, such as this years 'must have' hand held toy, or whatever techno-gizmo. This has a psychological affect on our perceptions that spills over into other areas of our life, and affects how we relate to it.

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  184. Ray, any comments on new trends you can see? Metals look so manipulated that it actually doesnt want to go anywhere.

    M.

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  185. Like even the fittest person on a long hike, markets must take a breather. That is where we are at present.

    There is so much political shift taking place that while I understand what is going (so should anyone that has an open mind, and clear vision) it is difficult to explain, simply, and briefly, so I will not try.

    The trend for gold is still in place, and could still come down, yet remain in the trend.

    There is a political game of brinkmanship going on between the major players will creates the confusion.

    The US can no longer wage a military war for all the reasons in the book. China plays the game of keep your friends close, but your 'enemies' closer.

    America's plan is to destabilize other countries from within so they destroy themselves. However, so far it has not happened with China.

    The main difference between China's long term agenda, and those who run the US is that though they both want ONE WORLD, the US wants to control it, but China wants it more of a world where no individual nation controls it.

    Markets are responding to this scenario, and will continue to do so. As fiat currencies get rubbished, gold will remain strong.

    Be careful of the Ides of March. Nothing particular but this year is going to bring some wild changes.

    Shanghai opens its gold exchange in June. It could rival London.

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  186. It looks gold reached its run and is on its way down now for a while.
    M.

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  187. The world's political, and economic scenario, currently, is far too complex to make assumptions and prognosis, at least for the short term - which can seem long if it appears to not behave as you wish.

    NO TREND IS BROKEN - YET!

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  188. I need some damn Enlightenment!

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  189. A month after...still down.
    M.

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  190. Sorry Anonymous but it is not 'enlightenment' you seek. What you really want is someone to tell you what you want to hear, and that fits in with you positions,
    and the market to perform accordingly.

    It does not work that way, and could NOT work that way.

    I have told you all that which guides me, and I am making money. It has taken me years (many of them) for it to really sink in. So, I know how difficult we make it for ourselves. Our minds can be our worst enemy.

    You could have doubled your money in two days within the last few days without any problem in this stock market. Even if, like me, you could not hold for the double, you could have taken 50%, or even 25%.

    If you have not learned from what I have already posted, then nothing I write (nor anyone else)will
    help.

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  191. I have found I became considerably more successful in making money in this market when I stopped trying to guess, or follow 'how things behaved before' as to where the market will go, and let the market 'show me' (I'm from Missouri)where it is going.

    Wherever 'Big' money plays, you can guarantee there is manipulation. It is not difficult for those who are allied with government, and control all the influencing economic and political factors to effect such ploy.

    However, fortunately for the open minded, and observant, no matter where we are in the wealth stakes, even manipulation reveals a trend.

    All we need to know above this is that nothing moves in a straight line - up, or down.

    Newton's first law of motion allows for 'unbalanced forces' to affect direction, and those 'forces' can be small enough to influence the main direction short time, long, and often, before they reach that strong enough to put it in reverse.

    One other consideration that helps is knowing, and we have been told and shown often enough, the end game (where we are heading whether we like it or not).

    If your money, and mind, is positioned waiting for something to happen that proves you right, you are immobilized from taking advantage of the
    prevailing conditions. And if you haven't figured out yet that it has been a traders market for some time, and still is, then you are
    at a great disadvantage.

    Look at any long trending chart and you will see that you do not have to be in at the beginning, or end, to make money. And, if you are a man of action and decision, and not a 'dithery pants' you will make money, and sleep well.

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  192. You like to spot an early trend?

    PM Report:CHINA REACHES DEAL TO BUY A US BANK
    Jan. 21, 2011
    China's largest bank, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., is the first Chinese bank to acquire a U.S. deposit-taking bank. Ken Brown explains why it could be the start of big expansions by Chinese financial institutions in the U.S.

    Remember last month

    "......Bank of China is now a member of LME
    The London Metal Exchange has approved the international arm of Bank of China as its first Chinese member in its 135 years of history......."

    Do you see that snippet as just a bit of market 'trivia'
    for passive note? Be honest - in at one eye, out the other.

    It will probably never be admitted in the Western Media, and China certainly will not, but China is now the most influential nation in the WORLD.

    China quietly calls the shots. China's powerful 'weapon' is DIPLOMACY, or as Churchill once put it (though his actions did not tend to follow his mouth) 'Better JAW JAW, than WAR WAR.

    Lead by example is the Confucian way. The US is very slowly getting the message, thanks to China.

    What has`all this got to do with the markets? EVERYTHING, mes amis, EVERYTHING!!

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  193. So what is the best way to invest in The bank of China? I know you can buy it on the pinksheets, but there are several choices. Anyone know the stock symbol?

    Thanks,

    Kiley Kuhl
    Kanab, Utah

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  194. My advice at the moment would be to stay in cash. I said to WATCH the banks for more reliable trend direction. Do what they do, they are holding and accumulating cash.

    The Chinese are holding billions of dollars, what better way than to spend them in the US on areas beaten down.

    What most people have not spotted because they do not understand China is that, because those, who really rule, who have manipulated other nations have expected China to fold the same way; and so far they have not conformed to plan

    China has held on to many trump cards, still yet to be played. China also has observed the failings in others who crumbled. So China is proving a very hard nut to crack.

    It had been planned that by putting Europe, in particular, and also the US market, into economic constraints, that China would be destabilized and pushed off course by the loss of these markets.

    It's a game of brinkmanship that cannot go on much longer as the 'Elite' cannot afford for Europe (EU) to pass the point of no return.

    China still has its vast home market to fall back on.
    It has a population greater than the US and Europe combined, a population as big as the whole world at the time of the Industrial Revolution. Plus, it has huge financial resources.

    We have to wait, if you want to sleep well, until this plays itself out. Meanwhile there will be a lot of volatility - great for professional traders.

    Best to watch the banks by observing the behavior of their ETF KBE.

    No one's going anywhere for long without money. CASH IS KING for now. You will have plenty of time once
    things are sorted out - particularly in Europe.

    Europe will not collapse, and the Euro will be a very strong currency eventually. But the media will confuse people because the media is owned,and controlled lock stock and barrel by the most powerful financial mafia that would make what most people know from the Hollywood variety, seem like boy scouts.

    They control the real money - GOLD. And, as they have told us - 'those have the gold make the rules.'

    Hope you get the drift. Can't explain too much.

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  195. They control gold and the mint. So how much will gold worth without their stamp?
    M.

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  196. Anonymous Does it matter? It is NEVER going to change. Accept, and work with that which has been established over millenniums.

    There are many changes taking place, but they are all ones that they bring about to suit them first, and we the masses second, and that is only because they need us - at least some of us. I am certain that one day there will be a mass cull - blamed on Nature.

    Those who try to buck the system ALWAYS end up the loser. Life is too short to worry about that which you cannot change. But...if you don't agree, be my guest and Bon Chance.

    Just take care of your own little corner and make it as comfortable, and as free from worry, as possible.

    GO WITH THE FLOW. Money can be made, but you have to adapt, and to adapt, you need to understand the rules of the game, then play by them.

    To answer your question,in a more direct way - it will be worth (monetarily) what everything else is worth - monetarily.......whatever someone will pay you for it, at a given time.

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  197. Confirmed: Britain’s Gold Was Sold Cheap to Bail Out Banks

    http://truthingold.com/?p=1129

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who says Britain sold its gold cheap? What is more - who said that Britain sold 'its' gold?
      And what is more still - Who says that it was 'Britain's' gold, or that Britain had any of it's own gold to sell?

      When you know these answers, you are only on the first step of the ladder.............

      The 'real' gold market is only for the 'Elite' of this world. It is HIGHLY secretive and most trading is done by proxy - not to fool YOU (we minions) We do not count for much in 'their' eyes. It is done to fool each other Elite member.

      They guard their hand more secretively than the club mmembers of the Darktown poker club.

      Delete
  198. Ray,
    I really enjoy your posts. You seem to have a relaxed confidence toward investing/trading that is needed to make money. Just curious, are you sitting on and managing generational wealth? Do you have decendents to pass this on to? If so, I assume you are teaching them your financial strategies. Do you have a professional career other than money mgmt?
    Be well my friend and always prosper.

    ReplyDelete